MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Decline Moves Along The 4 Month Bear Channel Base 

*RES 4: 115-092 Jan 23 high7

*RES 3: 115-045 Hourly congestion area Jan 24-26

*RES 2: 114-320 Jan 21 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 114-260/270 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 114-187 @1205GMT

*SUP 1: 114-180/185 intraday low, 4 month bear channel base

*SUP 2: 114-100 Apr 12 2010 low

*SUP 3: 113-280 Apr 5 2010 low

*SUP 4: 113-265 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The descent continues, most latterly through both the 10 week bear

channel base and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level. A low of 114-180 so far today,

basically a test to the 4 month bear channel base projection, at 114-185 by time

today. Consequently, resistance also falls, 114-260/114-270 now ahead of the Jan

21 low at 114-23, the 115-045/115-092 region higher. Beneath 114-180 and the Apr

12 2010 low at 114-100 protects the lower 1% volatility band.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Continues Lower, Eyeing 5 Month Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: 122-175 Jan 23 high

*RES 3: 122-105 Congestion area Jan 23-26

*RES 2: 122-015 Jan 21 low, now resistance 

*RES 1: 121-275/305 Jan 31, Jan 30 highs 

*PRICE: 121-110 @1216GMT

*SUP 1: 121-100 Intraday low

*SUP 2: 120-295 5 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: 120-250 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: 120-115 61.8% Fibo of 111-005/135-155

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to tumble, following on from the break below the Sep

2013 low at 122-070 earlier in the month. The 8 week channel base has now given

way, a low of 121-100 so far today. Resistance comes from 121-275/121-305 and

then the Jan 21 low at 122-015. However, likely requires a move back above

122-105 before any real upside interest will appear. Below 121-100 and the 5

month bear channel base and 1% volatility band come into view next.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Volatility Band Protects Channel Bases

*RES 4: 150-10 Jan 15, Jan 16 lows, now resistance

*RES 3: 149-16/22 Jan 25, Jan 23 highs

*RES 2: 149-03 Jan 10 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 148-20/23 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 147-09 @1230GMT

*SUP 1: 147-03/04 Jan 31, Jan 30 lows 

*SUP 2: 146-23/30 5 month bear channel base, 1% vol band

*SUP 3: 146-17 7 week bear channel base

*SUP 4: 145-26 Mar 14 low

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from both 149-17 and the key key 76.4% Fibo retrace

level at 148-24 over the last couple of weeks, a low of 147-03 so far. Beneath

here and the lower 1% volatility band at 146-30 by time today, is the next area

of support, ahead of the 5 month and 7 week bear channel base projections,

between 146-23/146-17 today. Meanwhile, 148-20/148-23 and then more

significantly 149-03 provide resistance to any recovery efforts.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) 98.130 Gives Way On Approach To 98.080 Support

*RES 4: 98.245 Dec 28-29 highs

*RES 3: 98.225 Jan 3 high

*RES 2: 98.205 Dec 20-27 lows, Jan 5 high

*RES 1: 98.160 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 98.115 @1236GMT

*SUP 1: 98.110 Intraday low

*SUP 2: 98.080 Dec 2015 low

*SUP 3: 98.055 Nov 2015 low

*SUP 4: 97.995 38.2% Fibo of 95.980-99.240

*COMMENTARY* It began with the slip below 98.205 support on Jan 4 and has been

followed by a further break below 98.165. As a result, there is the chance for a

potentially deeper fall, as not much is currently evident ahead of the December

2015 low at 98.080. Meanwhile, 98.130 has given way as has Monday's 98.115 low,

which was the protection to 98.080. Nearest resistance falls to 98.160, back

above would provide some respite but that 98.205 level still a tougher ask.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]