MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Recovery Heightened By Oversold Conditions

*RES 4: 115-270 Dec 26 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 115-222/227 Jan 11 high, 61.8% of 116-190/114-092

*RES 2: 115-212 Intraday high

*RES 1: 115-155 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 115-080 @1213GMT

*SUP 1: 114-260 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 114-185 Initial recovery high Feb 2, now support

*SUP 3: 114-092 Feb 2 low

*SUP 4: 113-280 Apr 5 2010 low

*COMMENTARY* A much needed bounce, given the oversold state, following the one

way traffic seen since the Dec 29 high at 116-065. The oversold conditions have

given energy to the rise, a high of 115-212 so far on the day, although with the

subsequent pullback, there is now earlier resistance from 115-155. Support from

114-260 initially and then 114-185 provide some near term comfort above last

Friday's 114-092 base. Above 115-212 and the 115-222/115-270 region next.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Rallies Well After Finding Support From 1% Vol Band

*RES 4: 123-125 Dec 21 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 123-050 Jan 16 high

*RES 2: 122-190/200 Intraday high, Jan 12 low

*RES 1: 122-110 Hourly resistance 

*PRICE: 122-005 @1230GMT

*SUP 1: 121-015 Initial recovery high Feb 5, now support

*SUP 2: 120-260 6 year bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: 120-180 Feb 5 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: 120-115 61.8% Fibo of 111-005/135-155

*COMMENTARY* Has found some support after briefly breaking below the 6 year bear

channel base but holding above the lower 1% volatility band and also the 61.8%

Fibo retrace level at 120-115. The bounce given some elasticity given the almost

one way fall since early November last year. A high of 122-190 seen so far

today, just below the Jan 12 low at 122-200. Above which 123-050/123-125 become

possible. Support 121-015 and then from that bear channel base at 120-260.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bounces After Hold At 144-03 On Monday

*RES 4: 149-03 Jan 10 low, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: 148-07/11 Jan 24 low, Jan 30 high

*RES 2: 147-21/23 Feb 2 high

*RES 1: 147-09/16 Hourly resistance, Feb 5 high147-16

*PRICE: 147-02 @1250GMT

*SUP 1: 145-28 Intraday low

*SUP 2: 144-30 Hourly support

*SUP 3: 144-03 Feb 5, Feb 23 2015 lows

*SUP 4: 143-25 Feb 16 2015 lows

*COMMENTARY* Downside has extended on Monday, breaking below the Mar low at

145-26 and also briefly the lower 2% volatility band at 144-19 by time today. A

low of 144-03 so far, equalling the similar low from Feb 23 2015. Oversold in

the near term and the rally back above 146-12, has allowed some corrective

recovery to take place. A high of 147-16 seen so far, as we move toward

147-21/147-23 resistance. Through which 148-07/148-11 comes into view.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) 98.145-98.160 Break Required To Provide A Boost

*RES 4: 98.205 Dec 20-27 lows, Jan 5 high

*RES 3: 98.190 Jan 10 high

*RES 2: 98.160 Jan 22-Jan 24 highs

*RES 1: 98.145 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 98.125 @1255GMT

*SUP 1: 98.100 Feb 2 , Feb 5 lows

*SUP 2: 98.080 Dec 2015 low

*SUP 3: 98.055 Nov 2015 low

*SUP 4: 97.995 38.2% Fibo of 95.980-99.240

*COMMENTARY* It began with the slip below 98.205 support on Jan 4 and has been

followed by a further break below 98.165. As a result, there is the chance for a

potentially deeper fall, as not much is currently evident ahead of the December

2015 low at 98.080. Meanwhile, 98.100 has provided some interim support and

protection to that 98.080 level. Nearest resistance falls to 98.145-98.160, back

above would provide some near term respite. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]