MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Fresh Fall Edges Closer To Key 113-280 Support

*RES 4: 115-037 Feb 9 high

*RES 3: 114-247 Feb 14 high

*RES 2: 114-155 Feb 12 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 114-092/117 Feb 2, Feb 8 lows, now resistance

*PRICE: 114-032 @1125GMT

*SUP 1: 113-315 Intraday low

*SUP 2: 113-280 Apr 5 2010 low

*SUP 3: 113-265 Aug 3 2009 low

*SUP 4: 113-142 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Pressure has returned to the downside, following last week's short

lived rally back to 115-212. Support from 114-155 and then 114-092 giving way on

Wednesday, as we edge ever closer to the key long term support from April 2010

at 113-280. Resistance as a consequence falls to those two previous lows but

likely needs to see a move back above Monday's 114-247 high, before the near

term negative bias is reduced.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Fresh Lows As Pressure Returns To The Downside 

*RES 4: 121-185 Feb 9 high

*RES 3: 121-075 Feb 14 high

*RES 2: 120-245 Hourly low Feb 12, now resistance

*RES 1: 120-170/180 Feb 8, Feb 5 lows, now resistance

*PRICE: 120-055 @1139GMT

*SUP 1: 120-010 Intraday low, Mar 2008 high

*SUP 2: 119-240 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: 119-115 Sep 2008 high, now support

*SUP 4: 118-315 Median line off 2012 highs

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to fall, most latterly through the month's previous

120-180/120-170 lows. A low of 120-010 at the time of writing, in line with the

March 2008 high. Any lower and the 1% volatility band, at 119-240 by time today,

becomes the next downside attraction. In the interim, nearest resistance comes

from those previous lows but will likely currently need a move back above

120-245, before near term downside bias is slowed.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Recovery Meets 145-14/146-12 Resistance

*RES 4: 148-07/11 Jan 24 low, Jan 30 high

*RES 3: 147-23 Feb 6 high

*RES 2: 146-12 Feb 7 high

*RES 1: 145-09/14 Feb 14 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: 143-09 @1145GMT

*SUP 1: 143-04 Feb 12 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: 142-11 Dec 22 2014 low

*SUP 3: 142-01 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: 140-26 Dec 1 2014 low

*COMMENTARY* Downside extended again, a low of 143-04 on Monday, as we begin to

leave long term support from 144-03/143-25 behind. Next supports of note come

from the December 2014 lows between 142-11 and 140-26. Sandwiched in between is

the lower 2% volatility band, at 142-01 by time today. Meanwhile, resistance

145-09/145-14, back through here will assist and allow a better 146-12 rise,

where next questions are asked.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) 38.2% Fibo Level Gives, 97.960-97.935 Next

Targets

*RES 4: 98.130 Jan 17 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 98.100 Feb 4, Feb 5 lows, now resistance

*RES 2: 98.075 Feb 8 high

*RES 1: 98.040 Feb 13 high

*PRICE: 97.975 @1155GMT

*SUP 1: 97.960 1.618 swing of 98.200-98.585, Apr 2013 high

*SUP 2: 97.935 76.4% Fibo of 97.530-99.240

*SUP 3: 97.910 Aug 10 2015 low

*SUP 4: 97.845 Aug 3 2015 low

*COMMENTARY* The decline has extended again, following the short lived recovery

to 98.145 last week. The subsequent slip below firstly 98.080 and then 98.050

support, has now been followed by the loss of the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at

97.995, this of the 95.980-99.240 rise, seen over the last 5 years. Now looking

to the swing target at 97.960 and perhaps the 76.4% retrace at 97.935. In the

meantime, 98.040-98.075 provides the near term bar to any recovery hopes. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]