MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Pivotal 113-272/113-270 Support Comes Under Pressure

*RES 4: 114-157 Apr 4 high

*RES 3: 114-135/140 Apr 11, Apr 6 highs

*RES 2: 114-080/100 Congestion Apr 5-11, Apr 12 high

*RES 1: 114-040/050 Apr 5, Apr 10 lows, now resistance

*PRICE: 113-285 @0930GMT

*SUP 1: 113-270/272 Apr 13, Mar 9 lows

*SUP 2: 113-222 Feb 20 low, low

*SUP 3: 113-180/190 1.618 projection from 114-140, Mar 21 low

*SUP 4: 113-010 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The 114-040/114-050 support finally gave way last Thursday, moving

below next support from 114-007 in the process. Now looking at the potential for

a 113-272/113-270 fall next, as we give back gains seen since the Mar 21 low at

113-190. Loss of 113-270 would see overall bias switch to lower again, with the

113-190/113-180 area at risk of test again. Resistance from between

114-040/114-100 but 114-135/114-157 presents a tougher ask above.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 120-080/120-065 Area Becomes Pivotal To Direction

*RES 4: 121-035 Apr 11 high

*RES 3: 120-310 Apr 12 high

*RES 2: 120-215 Apr 10 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 120-165 Apr 5 low, now resistance

*PRICE: 120-100 @0935GMT

*SUP 1: 120-080 Equality fall from 121-035 to 121-120/120-165

*SUP 2: 120-065 Feb 16 high, now support

*SUP 3: 120-025 Mar 19 low

*SUP 4: 119-265 Mar 6, Mar 9 lows

*COMMENTARY* The move back above 120-230 on Mar 23 was the first inkling of an

upside revival which was carried on by the further rise through 120-280 at the

beginning of the month. A high of 121-120 just shy of the next resistance of

real note, the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 121-145. Meanwhile, support from

120-250/120-230 has been lost, the lower 120-080/120-065 area now exposed, this

is anticipated to stay out of trouble, if gains are to continue.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18)  Focus Returns Toward 144-25/144-20 Support

*RES 4: 147-03 Apr 2 high

*RES 3: 146-28 Apr 11 high

*RES 2: 146-14 Apr 12 high

*RES 1: 145-25 Apr 13 high

*PRICE: 144-24 @0940GMT

*SUP 1: 144-20/25 Mar 2 high, Apr 5 low

*SUP 2: 144-06/07 Mar 23 low, 9 week rising support line

*SUP 3: 143-26 Feb 26 high, now support 

*SUP 4: 142-30 Mar 21 low

*COMMENTARY* Rally has continued this month, breaking above the previous 146-24

high, to reach 147-03 and a test to the upper 1% volatility band. Some near term

overbought conditions have since arisen, resulting in a loss of 145-22/145-11

but so far this has been held by 144-25/144-20 support, as ideally any pullbacks

are held above here, if recent upside momentum is to remain undisturbed.

Resistance from 145-25/146-28 now, in front of a return to 147-03/147-14.

US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (M18) First Swing Target At 97.625 Under Pressure Today

*RES 4: 97.775 Mar 6 high

*RES 3: 97.740 Mar 27-28 highs 

*RES 2: 97.715/720 Apr 2 high, 6 month falling res line

*RES 1: 97.685/690 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 97.620 @0947GMT

*SUP 1: 97.615/625 Intraday low, 1.618 swing of 97.700-97.820

*SUP 2: 97.585 Jun 29 2015 low

*SUP 3: 97.560 1.618 swing of 97.630-97.740

*SUP 4: 97.515 50% Fibo of 95.835/99.200

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to fall, this week the first swing target at 97.625

is under pressure today. Any lower and not much is currently evident ahead of

the Jun 2015 low at 97.585 and more importantly the second swing target at

97.560. As a consequence, initial resistance has fallen to 97.685-97.690 but no

real respite is likely to be forthcoming, until such time as the 6 month falling

resistance line, currently at 97.720 is broken.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]