MNI US Morning FX Analysis - USD Stabilises as Results Trickle Through

Dollar More Stable After Three Sessions of Weakness

Currency markets are pretty non-directional early Friday, with the dollar mixed after profound weakness across the past three sessions. Markets have a risk-off feel to them, with CHF, EUR stronger while equities retreat across Europe and in US futures space. EUR/USD ascent continues, with the pair hitting new weekly highs this morning at 1.1860.

Election votes continue to trickle through, with Biden taking the lead in swing state of Georgia. A victory here would bring Biden just 1 electoral vote from the 270 needed to take the White House. Counts in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania continue.

Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls release takes focus going forward, with the US expected to have added 593,000 jobs across the month, bringing the unemployment rate lower by another 0.3ppts. The street appears a little more bullish, with the whisper number resting at just over 650,000, although this has fallen from over 700,000 just a few days ago. The Canadian jobs report is also on the docket.

EUR/USD TECHS: Rally Exposes 1.1881

• RES 4: 1.2000 High Sep 1 and major resistance
• RES 3: 1.1917 High Sep 10
• RES 2: 1.1881 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1860 High Oct 27
• PRICE: 1.1819 @ 05:43 GMT Nov 6
• SUP 1: 1.1711 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 1.1603 Low Nov 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1576 0.764 proj of Sep 1 - 25 sell-off from Oct 21 high
• SUP 4: 1.1541 Low Jul 23

EURUSD has traded higher Thursday clearing initial resistance at 1.1770, Nov 4 high and extending the recovery off Wednesday's 1.1603 low. The break higher reinforces this week's bullish developments and signals scope for a climb towards 1.1881, Oct 21 high. A break of this level would open 1.2011, The Sep 1 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 1.1603. A break is required to reinstate a bearish threat.

GBP/USD TECHS: Attention Is On Key Near-term Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3357 High Sep 3
• RES 3: 1.3261 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3177 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3158 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3124 @ 05:51 GMT Nov 6
• SUP 1: 1.2998 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2911/2855 Low Nov 3 / Low Nov 2
• SUP 3: 1.2863 Low Oct 14 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.2806 Low Sep 30

GBPUSD rallied Thursday. The outlook remains bearish however this week's gains threaten this theme. We do note though that a move below key near-term support at 1.2855, Nov 2 low is required to reinforce bearish conditions. This would pave the way for a move towards 1.2676, Sep 23 low. On the upside, clearance of key resistance at 1.3177, Oct 21 high would alter the picture and reinstate a bullish theme.

EUR/GBP TECHS: Monitoring The Bullish Engulfing Candle

• RES 4: 0.9149 Oct 20 high
• RES 3: 0.9107 High Oct 23
• RES 2: 0.9080 Trendline resistance drawn off the Sep 11 high
• RES 1: 0.9069 High Nov 5
• PRICE: 0.9027 @ 10:29 GMT Nov 6
• SUP 1: 0.8989 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.8946 Low Nov 4 and the key near-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8924 Low Sep 7
• SUP 4: 0.8900 Low Sep 4

EURGBP maintains a positive tone following Wednesday's recovery. In pattern terms the Wednesday candle line is a bullish engulfing reversal. If correct, it signals a floor has been established at 0.8946. Further gains would open 0.9107, Oct 23 high. Note there is a trendline resistance that intersects at 0.9080, drawn off the Sep 11 high and represents a key short-term hurdle for bulls. On the downside, a break of 0.8946 would resume the downtrend.

USD/JPY TECHS: Under Pressure

• RES 4: 105.75 High Oct 20
• RES 3: 105.27/34 50-day EMA / High Nov 4 and key S/T resistance
• RES 2: 104.54 High Nov 5
• RES 1: 104.00 Low Sep 21 and this week's break out level
• PRICE: 103.25 @ 10:52 GMT Nov 6
• SUP 1: 103.09 Low Mar 12
• SUP 2: 102.02 Low Mar 10
• SUP 3: 101.36 Bear channel base drawn off the Mar 24 high
• SUP 4: 101.19 Low Mar 9 and major support

USDJPY remains heavy following yesterday's sell-off. The pair has cleared 104.00 - the first move through this mark since March's Coronavirus fallout. The first notable level provided little support at the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9-24 rally at 103.67. This keeps the outlook resolutely bearish signalling scope for weakness within a bear channel drawn off the Mar 24 high and opening 103.09 next, Mar 12 low. Initial resistance is seen at 104.00.

EUR/JPY TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 124.23 Bear channel top drawn off the Sep 1 high
• RES 3: 124.00 High Oct 27
• RES 2: 123.60 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 123.18 High Nov 5
• PRICE: 122.47 @ 10:41 GMT Nov 6
• SUP 1: 121.62 Low Oct 30
• SUP 2: 121.50 0.764 proj of Sep 1 - 28 decline from Oct 9 high
• SUP 3: 120.50Bear channel base drawn off the Sep 1 high
• SUP 4: 120.39 1.000 proj of Sep 1 - 28 decline from Oct 9 high

EURJPY is trading above recent lows but despite the recent recovery, maintains a bearish tone following last week's sell-off. The cross has recently cleared support at 123.03/02 and 122.38, Sep 28 low. This move lower confirmed a resumption of the downleg that started Sep 1. Scope is seen for weakness towards 121.50 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, 120.39 is on the radar, also a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 123.18.

AUD/USD TECHS: Bulls Return

• RES 4: 0.7414 High Sep 1
• RES 3: 0.7339 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.7314 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Nov 2 downleg
• RES 1: 0.7289 High Nov 5
• PRICE: 0.7277 @ 10:45 GMT Nov 6
• SUP 1: 0.7145 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 0.7138/32 50- day and 20-day EMA support zone
• SUP 3: 0.7049 Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: 0.6991 Low Nov 2 and the bear trigger

AUDUSD rallied sharply higher Thursday reinforcing the significance of this week's trendline break drawn off the Sep 1 high. Thursday's gains also resulted in a break of resistance at 0.7243, Oct 9 high. With bullish conditions strengthened, scope is seen for a climb towards 0.7314 next, a Fibonacci retracement and 0.7345, Sep 16 high. Initials support is seen at 0.7145.

USD/CAD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.3421 High Sep 30 and primary resistance
• RES 3: 1.3390 High Oct 29
• RES 2: 1.3300 High Nov 4
• RES 1: 1.3178 High Nov 5
• PRICE: 1.3065 @ 10:48 GMT Nov 6
• SUP 1: 1.3029 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 1.2994 Low Sep 1 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2952 Low Dec 31, 2019 and primary support
• SUP 4: 1.2939 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD remains vulnerable following Thursday's bearish session, in line with general USD weakness. The pair cleared a key short-term support at 1.3081, Oct 21 low, negating a recent bullish theme and instead highlights a stronger bearish near-term risk. The break lower refocuses attention on the key supports at 1.2994, Sep 1 low and the Dec 31, 2019 low of 1.2952. Initial resistance is at 1.3178, yesterday's high.

EUR/USD: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *$1.2084 May01-2018 high
• *$1.2032 May02-2018 high
• *$1.2009/11 May03-2018 high/YTD Sep01 high
• *$1.1996 May14-2018 high
• *$1.1978 Upper 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• *$1.1969 Upper Bollinger Band (3%)
• *$1.1938 May15-2018 high
• *$1.1901 Upper Bollinger Band (2%)
• *$1.1860 Upper 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• *$1.1851/53 100-mma, Jun14-2018 high/Intraday high
• *$1.1848 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 08:52GMT FRIDAY***
• *$1.1815 Sep24-2018 high
• *$1.1796 Intraday low
• *$1.1783 55-dma
• *$1.1777 Cloud top, 50-dma
• *$1.1767 21-dma
• *$1.1759/57 Cloud base/Sep27-2018 high
• *$1.1736 Fibo 38.2% 1.3993-1.0341
• *$1.1722/19 200-hma/100-hma
• *$1.1680 100-dma
• *$1.1651 Sep28-2018 high

GBP/USD: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *$1.3276/79 Mar20-2019 high/Upper 2.0% 10-dma env
• *$1.3269 Mar27-2019 high
• *$1.3249 Upper Bollinger Band (3%)
• *$1.3213 Mar28-2019 high
• *$1.3196 Apr03-2019 high
• *$1.3191 Apr04-2019 high
• *$1.3185 May06-2019 high
• *$1.3169 Upper Bollinger Band (2%)
• *$1.3158 Intraday high
• *$1.3144/49 38.2% 1.4377-1.2382/Upper 1.0% 10-dma env
• *$1.3144 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 08:52GMT FRIDAY***
• *$1.3133/31 Apr12-2019 high/May07-2019 high
• *$1.3112/09 Intraday low/50% 1.1841-1.4377
• *$1.3080 May08-2019 high
• *$1.3063 Cloud top
• *$1.3041 May13-2019 high
• *$1.3011/07 21-dma/100-hma
• *$1.3002/99 55-dma/61.8% 1.3381-1.2382
• *$1.2992/91 200-hma/May10-2019 low
• *$1.2983 50-dma
• *$1.2970 May14-2019 high

EUR/GBP: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *Gbp0.9122 Upper Bollinger Band (2%)
• *Gbp0.9108/11 Jan03-2019 high/Upper 1.0% 10-dma env
• *Gbp0.9101 Cloud top
• *Gbp0.9079 Cloud base
• *Gbp0.9072 50-dma
• *Gbp0.9062/63 Jan11-2019 high/55-dma
• *Gbp0.9051/52 Jul17-2019 high/100-dma
• *Gbp0.9045/48 21-dma/Jul16-2019 high
• *Gbp0.9039 Jul18-2019 high
• *Gbp0.9021/23 Intraday high/200-hma
• *Gbp0.9014 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 08:52GMT FRIDAY***
• *Gbp0.9010 Jul10-2019 high, 100-hma
• *Gbp0.9005/00 Jul23-2019 high/Jul22-2019 high
• *Gbp0.8989 Intraday low
• *Gbp0.8966 Lower Bollinger Band (2%)
• *Gbp0.8953 Jul23-2019 low
• *Gbp0.8930/27 Lower 1.0% 10-dma env/Lower Boll Band (3%)
• *Gbp0.8921/19 Jul02-2019 low/200-dma
• *Gbp0.8874/73/72 Jun19-2019 low/Jun20-2019 low/Jun12-2019 low
• *Gbp0.8865 Fibo 61.8% 0.9108-0.8473
• *Gbp0.8840 Lower 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USD/JPY: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *Y104.87 Jan03-2019 low
• *Y104.81 21-dma
• *Y104.74 Cloud Kijun Sen
• *Y104.56 Mar26-2018 low
• *Y104.43 200-hma
• *Y104.39 100-hma
• *Y104.35 Cloud Tenkan Sen
• *Y103.93 200-mma
• *Y103.76 Intraday high
• *Y103.57 Lower Bollinger Band (2%)
• *Y103.43 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 08:52GMT FRIDAY***
• *Y103.36/31 Intraday low/Lower 1.0% 10-dma env
• *Y102.98 Lower Bollinger Band (3%)
• *Y102.26 Lower 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• *Y101.22 Lower 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• *Y101.20 Nov09-2016 low
• *Y101.19 YTD low
• *Y100.75 Sep30-2016 low
• *Y100.61 Fibo 50% 75.35-125.86
• *Y100.09 Sep27-2016 low
• *Y99.65 Aug18-2016 low

EUR/JPY: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *Y123.51 May22-2019 high
• *Y123.36 Cloud Kijun Sen
• *Y123.34 21-dma
• *Y123.18 Jun11-2019 high
• *Y123.11 Fibo 50% 118.71-127.50
• *Y123.08 Fibo 38.2% 126.81-120.78
• *Y123.01 Jun12-2019 high
• *Y122.81 Cloud Tenkan Sen
• *Y122.72 Intraday high
• *Y122.56 Jun13-2019 high
• *Y122.54 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 08:52GMT FRIDAY***
• *Y122.41 200-hma
• *Y122.33 100-hma
• *Y122.23 Jul12-2019 high
• *Y122.22 Intraday low
• *Y122.13 Jun17-2019 high
• *Y122.07 Fibo 61.8% 118.71-127.50
• *Y121.95 Fibo 50% 94.12-149.78
• *Y121.92 Jun20-2019 high
• *Y121.85 Jul15-2019 high
• *Y121.73 100-wma

AUD/USD: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *$0.7453 Aug09-2018 high
• *$0.7425 Fibo 38.2% 0.8136-0.6985
• *$0.7414 YTD Sep01 high
• *$0.7394 Dec04-2018 high
• *$0.7356 Dec05-2018 high
• *$0.7345/46 Upper3.0% 10-dma env/Upper Boll Band (3%)
• *$0.7295 Jan31-2019 high
• *$0.7284 Intraday high
• *$0.7274 Dec06-2018 high
• *$0.7272/73 Upper Boll Band (2%)/Upper 2.0% 10-dma env
• *$0.7270 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 08:52GMT FRIDAY***
• *$0.7253/49 50-mma/Intraday low
• *$0.7242 200-wma
• *$0.7210/07/06 Cloud top/Feb21-2019 high/Apr17-2019 high
• *$0.7202 Upper 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• *$0.7188/87 Cloud base/55-dma
• *$0.7181 50-dma
• *$0.7153 Apr17-2019 low
• *$0.7148 100-hma
• *$0.7140 Apr16-2019 low
• *$0.7131/29 21-dma/100-dma

USD/CAD: MNI KEY LEVELS

• *C$1.3221/24/26 200-hma/50% 1.2783-1.3665/Jun10-2019 low
• *C$1.3199/04 55-dma/50-dma
• *C$1.3173/77 21-dma/50-mma
• *C$1.3159/63/64 200-wma/Feb21-2019 low/100-hma, Jul23-2019 high
• *C$1.3150/51 Feb20-2019 low/Jun20-2019 low
• *C$1.3120 Fibo 61.8% 1.2783-1.3665
• *C$1.3113/16 Feb25-2019 low/Jul23-2019 low
• *C$1.3107 Jun26-2019 low
• *C$1.3097 Intraday high
• *C$1.3066 Fibo 38.2% 1.4690-1.2062
• *C$1.3066 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 08:52GMT FRIDAY***
• *C$1.3065 Lower 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• *C$1.3053 Fibo 38.2% 1.2062-1.3665
• *C$1.3040 Intraday low
• *C$1.3019/15 Lower Boll Band (2%)/Oct25-2018 low
• *C$1.2970 Oct24-2018 low
• *C$1.2957 YTD low
• *C$1.2941 Lower Bollinger Band (3%)
• *C$1.2933 Oct17-2018 low, Lower 2.0% 10-dma env
• *C$1.2917 Oct16-2018 low
• *C$1.2891 Oct05-2018 low

Expiries for Nov6 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

• EUR/USD: $1.1600(E1.8bln), $1.1700(E688mln), $1.1725-35(E1.1bln), $1.1795-05(E2.46bln), $1.1845-50(E1.2bln), $1.2000(E870mln)
• USD/JPY: Y103.30($450mln-USD puts), Y104.00($501mln), Y104.89-00($1.45bln)
• EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8980-00(E720mln-EUR puts)
• AUD/JPY: Y73.75(A$979mln), Y74.60(A$947mln-AUD puts)
• USD/CNY: Cny6.62($810mln), Cny6.70($1.2bln), Cny6.80($523mln)

Larger Option Pipeline

• EUR/USD: Nov09 $1.1780-00(E1.1bln), $1.1900(E2.5bln-EUR calls); Nov10 $1.1800(E1.2bln); Nov11$1.1650-55(E1.1bln); Nov13 $1.2000(E1.2bln-EUR calls)
• USD/JPY: Nov10 Y103.00($1.3bln-USD puts), Y103.75-80($1.1bln), Y104.40-50($2.8bln), Y105.00-05($1.1bln); Nov12 Y103.00($1.4bln-USD puts), Y105.40-50($1.1bln); Nov13 Y101.00($970mln-USD puts)
• EUR/JPY: Nov16 Y123.00(E1.3bln)
• EUR/AUD: Nov12 A$1.6520(E973mln)
• USD/CNY: Nov11 Cny6.65($1.0bln)