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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Correcting Recent Losses $1.1950-$1.1984 Next Resistance
*RES 4: $1.2070 Aug 29 high
*RES 3: $1.2009/32 Initial pullback low Aug 29, 1% vol band
*RES 2: $1.1984 Aug 30 high
*RES 1: $1.1950 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1948 @0830GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1870/85 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.1849 Sep 1 low
*SUP 3: $1.1818/23 61.8% of $1.1662-$1.2070, Aug 31 low
*SUP 4: $1.1773 Aug 25 low
*COMMENTARY* Having found support from above the key $1.1823-$1.1818 area last
week, we have begun a gradual correction of losses seen since the Aug 29 high at
$1.2070. This has crept it's way back up towards the intervening $1.1984 high,
via some minor resistance around $1.1950. As a result, support also rises,
initially to $1.1885-$1.1870, with $1.1849 then seen as the protection to that
important $1.1823-$1.1818. Above $1.1984 and look to $1.2009-$1.2032 next.
CABLE TECHS: Rally Continues With $1.3057-$1.3080 Potential Next
*RES 4: $1.3197 2% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.3152 76.4% Fibo of $1.3269-$1.2774
*RES 2: $1.3080 61.8% Fibo of $1.3269-$1.2774
*RES 1: $1.3057/68 Equality rise from $1.2852, 1% vol band
*PRICE: $1.3046 @0840GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2996 Sep 1 high, now support
*SUP 2: $1.2940/60 Initial recovery high Sep 5, hourly suppt
*SUP 3: $1.2906/09 Sep 1, Sep 5 lows
*SUP 4: $1.2878 Aug 30 low
*COMMENTARY* Support found last Thursday at $1.2852, in line with a 61.8% Fibo
retrace of the previous $1.2774-$1.2979 rise. Friday's move back above firstly
$1.2949 and then $1.2979 is a fresh positive, with scope to increase gains into
$1.3057-$1.3080 next, as we continue the recovery of last month's
$1.3269-$1.2774 drop. Support now from Friday's 1.2996 high ahead of the
$1.2960-$1.2940 area. Loss of the latter would caution now.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Downside Pressure Remains But Oversold Near Term
*RES 4: Y109.88/94 Aug 31 low, Sep 4 high
*RES 3: Y109.55 Hourly recovery high Sep 5
*RES 2: Y109.38 Sep 4 low, now resistance
*RES 1: Y109.00/15 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y108.72 @0848GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.40/50 1% volatility band, intraday low
*SUP 2: Y108.27 Aug 29 low
*SUP 3: Y108.13 Apr 17 low
*SUP 4: Y107.31/36 2% vol band, 1.618 swing Y108.73-Y110.95
*COMMENTARY* The break back below Y108.85 is a concern, now leaving the
Y108.50-Y108.40 area to protect the downside against another tilt at the year's
previous Y108.27-Y108.13 lows. In the interim, resistance falls to
Y109.00-Y109.15, a move back above the latter is currently needed to revive any
near term upside interest. A loss of Y108.27 would negate any further benefit
from last Tuesday's bullish outside day, below Y108.13 and scope for Y107.36.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y130.11-Y130.40 Provides Resistance To Near Term Recovery
*RES 4: Y131.35 Sep 1 high
*RES 3: Y130.71 Aug 31 low, Sep 4 high
*RES 2: Y130.40 Hourly congestion Sep 4
*RES 1: Y130.11 Sep 4 low, now resistance
*PRICE: Y129.81 @0855GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.37 Sep 5 low
*SUP 2: Y129.12/19 1% vol, 61.8% Y127.56-Y131.71, Aug 22 high
*SUP 3: Y128.54 76.4% Fibo of Y127.56-Y131.71
*SUP 4: Y127.82 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Undergoing some correction of last month's Y127.56-Y131.71 rise.
Tuesday's loss of Y130.14 giving the downside some further impetus, a low of
Y129.37 recorded before some hourly oversold conditions came to the fore. Still
requires a move back above Y130.11-Y130.40 however, before any real confidence
in a recovery will appear. Through here and Y130.71 then the next barrier to
cross. Below Y129.37 and the correction continues, Y129.19-Y128.54 next.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Near Term Bear Bias After 8 Week Support Line Break
*RES 4: Stg0.9257 Broken 8 week support line
*RES 3: Stg0.9227 Sep 4 high
*RES 2: Stg0.9213 Sep 5 high
*RES 1: Stg0.9190 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.9157 @0902GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.9133 Sep 5 low
*SUP 2: Stg0.9110 1% volatility band
*SUP 3: Stg0.9101 1.618 swing of Stg0.9149-Stg0.9226
*SUP 4: Stg0.9091 38.2% Fibo of Stg0.8743-Stg0.9306
*COMMENTARY* Broke above both the upper 1% volatility band and the 4 month bull
channel top last week but the rally was halted just below the equality rise
target at Stg0.9310. The subsequent pullback, aided by a 'Doji' candle close on
that day, has breached the 8 week support line and also the key near term
support at Stg0.9190. Sustained loss here would concern now and open potential
for a further Stg0.9142-Stg0.9091 fall. Nearest resistance Stg0.9190-Stg0.9213.
GOLD TECHS: Rally Seeks Next Targets Between $1344.0-$1352.8
*RES 4: $1375.4 Jul 8 high
*RES 3: $1353.2 9 month bull channel top projection
*RES 2: $1352.8 Sep 6 2016 high
*RES 1: $1344.0 1.618 swing of $1326.2-$1297.3
*PRICE: $1340.1 @0911GMT
*SUP 1: $1330.5 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1326.2 Aug 29 high, Sep 5 low
*SUP 3: $1320.8 Congestion area Aug 30-31
*SUP 4: $1316.4 Sep 1 low
*COMMENTARY* The pullback from last week's earlier $1326.2 high reached $1297.3
on Thursday, keeping support from the Aug 25 high at $1295.1 intact. This keeps
momentum with the upside. Have subsequently seen a move back above that previous
$1326.2 high and this can see the upside extend gains towards $1344.0-$1352.8
next. The latter also the swing target of the $1296.1-$1204.8 fall seen earlier
this year. Meanwhile, support $1330.5 and then that $1326.2 level.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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