MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Correcting Recent Losses $1.1984 Next Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2070 Aug 29 high

*RES 3: $1.2045 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.2009 Initial pullback low Aug 29,

*RES 1: $1.1984 Aug 30 high

*PRICE: $1.1950 @0820GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1875/90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1849 Sep 1 low

*SUP 3: $1.1818/23 61.8% of $1.1662-$1.2070, Aug 31 low

*SUP 4: $1.1773 Aug 25 low

*COMMENTARY* Having found support from above the key $1.1823-$1.1818 area last

week, we have begun a gradual correction of losses seen since the Aug 29 high at

$1.2070. This has crept it's way back up towards the intervening $1.1984 high,

via some minor resistance around $1.1950. As a result, support also rises,

initially to $1.1890-$1.1875, with $1.1849 then seen as the protection to that

important $1.1823-$1.1818. Above $1.1984 and look to $1.2009-$1.2045 next.

CABLE TECHS: Rally Continues Having Tested Next Target At $1.3080

*RES 4: $1.3223 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3184 1.618 proj'n from $1.2852 to $1.2774-$1.2979

*RES 2: $1.3152 76.4% Fibo of $1.3269-$1.2774

*RES 1: $1.3080/93 61.8% Fibo of $1.3269-$1.2774, 1% vol band

*PRICE: $1.3046 @0824GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3015/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2996 Sep 1 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2950 Congestion area Sep 1-Sep 4

*SUP 4: $1.2906/09 Sep 1, Sep 5 lows

*COMMENTARY* Support found last Thursday at $1.2852, in line with a 61.8% Fibo

retrace of the previous $1.2774-$1.2979 rise. Friday's move back above firstly

$1.2949 and then $1.2979 is a fresh positive, with scope to increase gains

towards $1.3080 next, as we continue the recovery of last month's

$1.3269-$1.2774 drop. Support now from $1.3035-$1.3015 and then Friday's 1.2996

high. Directly through $1.3080 and look to a continued $1.3152-$1.3184 rise.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Downside Pressure Remains, Oversold Conditions Being Repaired

*RES 4: Y110.15 2 month falling resistance line

*RES 3: Y109.88/94 Aug 31 low, Sep 4 high

*RES 2: Y109.55 Hourly recovery high Sep 5

*RES 1: Y109.38/40 Sep 4 low, Sep 6 high

*PRICE: Y108.97 @0841GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.65/70 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.39/45 1% volatility band, Sep 7 low

*SUP 3: Y108.13/27 Apr 17, Aug 29 lows 

*SUP 4: Y107.29/36 2% vol band, 1.618 swing Y108.73-Y110.95

*COMMENTARY* The week's earlier break below Y108.85 is a concern, leaving the

Y108.45-Y108.39 area to protect the downside against another tilt at the year's

previous Y108.27-Y108.13 lows. Below and look to a Y107.36 fall. In the interim,

the move back above Y109.15 assists, a clear move back above here is currently

needed to revive any near term upside interest and potentially a Y109.38-Y109.94

rise. The 2 month falling resistance line at the higher Y110.15 level.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y130.45-Y130.55 Now Provides Resistance To Near Term Recovery

*RES 4: Y131.35 Sep 1 high

*RES 3: Y130.71 Aug 31 low, Sep 4 high

*RES 2: Y130.71 Aug 31 low, Sep 4 high

*RES 1: Y130.45/55 Hourly congestion Sep 4

*PRICE: Y130.33 @0849GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.60/65 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y129.27/37 1% volatility band, Sep 5 low

*SUP 3: Y129.15/19 61.8% of Y127.56-Y131.71, Aug 22 high

*SUP 4: Y128.54 76.4% Fibo of Y127.56-Y131.71

*COMMENTARY* Undergoing some correction of last month's Y127.56-Y131.71 rise.

Tuesday's loss of Y130.14 giving the downside some further impetus, a low of

Y129.37 recorded before some hourly oversold conditions came to the fore. Still

requires a move back above Y130.45-55 however, before any real confidence in a

recovery will appear. Through here and Y130.71 then the next barrier to cross.

Below Y129.37 and the correction continues, Y129.19-Y128.54 next.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Near Term Bear Bias After 8 Week Support Line Break

*RES 4: Stg0.9271 Broken 8 week support line

*RES 3: Stg0.9227/38 Sep 4, Aug 31 highs

*RES 2: Stg0.9213 Sep 5 high

*RES 1: Stg0.9190 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.9151 @0858GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.9124 Sep 6 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.9100 1.618 swing Stg0.9149-Stg0.9226, 1% vol

*SUP 3: Stg0.9091 38.2% Fibo of Stg0.8743-Stg0.9306

*SUP 4: Stg0.9032 4 month rising support line

*COMMENTARY* Broke the upper 1% volatility band and the 4 month bull channel top

last week but the rally was halted just below the equality rise target at

Stg0.9310. The subsequent pullback, aided by a 'Doji' candle close, has breached

the 8 week support line and also the key near term support at Stg0.9190.

Sustained loss here would concern now and open potential for a further fall

towards next key Stg0.9100-Stg0.9091. Resistance Stg0.9190-Stg0.9213.

GOLD TECHS: Rally Seeks Next Targets Between $1344.0-$1352.8

*RES 4: $1375.4 Jul 8 high

*RES 3: $1353.8 9 month bull channel top projection

*RES 2: $1352.8 Sep 6 2016 high

*RES 1: $1344.0 1.618 swing of $1326.2-$1297.3

*PRICE: $1338.9 @0933GMT

*SUP 1: $1330.5 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1326.2 Aug 29 high, Sep 5 low

*SUP 3: $1320.8 Congestion area Aug 30-31

*SUP 4: $1316.4 Sep 1 low

*COMMENTARY* The pullback from last week's earlier $1326.2 high reached $1297.3,

keeping support from the Aug 25 high at $1295.1 intact. This keeps momentum with

the upside. Have subsequently seen a move back above that previous $1326.2 high

and this can see the upside extend gains towards $1344.0-$1352.8 next. The

latter also the swing target of the $1296.1-$1204.8 fall seen earlier this year.

Meanwhile, support $1330.5 and then that $1326.2 level.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]