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Retracement Extends

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Move Lower Likely A Correction

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Approaching The 20-Day EMA

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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: 76.4% Fibo Retrace Caps And Precedes Deep Corrective
Pullback
*RES 4: $1.2063 1% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.2033/34 76.4% of $1.2093-$1.1837, Sep 20 high
*RES 2: $1.1984 Initial pullback low Sep 20, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.1935/45 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1914 @0855GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1861/66 Sep 20 low
*SUP 2: $1.1837 Sep 14 low
*SUP 3: $1.1823 Aug 31 low, 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.1764/73 76.4% Fibo of $1.1662-$1.2093, Aug 25 low
*COMMENTARY* Unable to make it's way through 76.4% Fibo resistance from $1.2033
on Wednesday, before giving way to some corrective pressure. This has seen a
move slightly below $1.1873 but so far has left the important $1.1823 support
intact. As a result, has become oversold in the meantime, looking towards
$1.1935-45 for initial resistance, yesterday's initial low at $1.1984 then the
bar to renewed upside attempts. Loss of $1.1823 would target $1.1764 next.
CABLE TECHS: Briefly Breaks Above 4 Year Falling Resistance Line 
*RES 4: $1.3653/59 2% volatility band, Sep 20 high
*RES 3: $1.3617/19 Sep 15, Sep 18 highs
*RES 2: $1.3576/80 Hourly highs Sep 20
*RES 1: $1.3515/30 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3494 @0910GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3452 Sep 20 low
*SUP 2: $1.3406 Sep 14 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1.3382 Hourly base Sep 14
*SUP 4: $1.3329 Sep 13 high, now support
*COMMENTARY*  Break above the 4 year falling resistance line was met with
immediate selling pressure on the arrival at the 2% volatility band. A deep
pullback since, breaking slightly below the previous support base around
$1.3465, to reach $1.3452 before lifting again. $1.3515-$1.3530 now initial
resistance, above here and $1.3576-$1.3580 comes into play next. Below $1.3452
and the Sep 14 high at $1.3406 is the protection to $1.3382-$1.3329.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Falters Ahead Of Congested Y112.81-Y113.00 Resistance
*RES 4: Y113.27 Equality rise from Y109.55 to Y107.32-Y111.04
*RES 3: Y113.00 50% Fibo of Y118.67-Y107.32
*RES 2: Y112.96/98 2% vol band, 2017 falling resistance line
*RES 1: Y112.72/81 Sep 21 high, 76.4% Fibo of Y114.50-Y107.32
*PRICE: Y112.36 @1025GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.05/10 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y111.88 Sep 19 high, now support
*SUP 3: Y111.45/50 Hourly congestion area Sep 20
*SUP 4: Y111.04/11 Sep 14 high, Sep 20 low 
*COMMENTARY* Still the 'Doji' candle close on Sep 8 continues to power the
recovery, Wednesday moving through through the next Y112.20-Y112.42 barrier,
toward the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y112.81. This the first of a congested
resistance area from between here and Y113.00. An area that includes the 2%
volatility band, the year's falling resistance line and a longer term 50% Fibo
retracement. In the meantime, support from Y112.10-Y111.88, loss would caution.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Still Faces Several Obstacles Between Y134.17-Y134.69
*RES 4: Y134.69 Median line drawn off Apr,Jun lows, Aug highs
*RES 3: Y134.61 November 2015 high
*RES 2: Y134.41 61.8% Fibo of Y149.80-Y109.51
*RES 1: Y134.17 Sep 19 high
*PRICE: Y133.93 @0933GMT
*SUP 1: Y133.26/27 Sep 20, Sep 19 lows
*SUP 2: Y132.95 Hourly low Sep 18
*SUP 3: Y132.63 Sep 18 low
*SUP 4: Y132.28 Hourly base Sep 15
*COMMENTARY* Fresh strength on Tuesday saw  a rally to Y134.17, in line with the
upper 2% volatility band at the time. The upside is still confronted with
several potential obstacles in the Y134's, through Y134.17 and the 61.8% Fibo
retrace and the 5 month median line present the next Y134.41 Y134.69 barrier,
with the November 2015 high at Y134.61 in between. Meanwhile, support from
Y133.26-Y132.95, protects the Sep 18 low at Y132.63.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Recovery Fails To Break Key Stg0.8900-Stg0.8908 Resistance
*RES 4: Stg0.8977/82 38.2% Stg0.9306-Stg0.8774, Sep 12 low
*RES 3: Stg0.8900/08 23.6% Fibo retrace, recovery high Sep 14
*RES 2: Stg0.8875 Congestion area Sep 19-20
*RES 1: Stg0.8845/50 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8829 @0940GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8798 Sep 20 low
*SUP 2: Stg0.8774 Sep 15 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8743 Jul 14 low, 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: Stg0.8692 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8313-Stg0.9306
*COMMENTARY* Unable as yet to find the strength for a break back above the key
Stg0.8900-Stg0.8908 resistance. Through here needed before the correction of
recent losses from Stg0.9306 can get a real kick start. The subsequent pullback
on Wednesday was held at Stg0.8798, leaving last Friday's Stg0.8774 low intact.
The latter seen as the protection to the important Stg0.8743 level, which also
includes the lower 2% volatility band today.
GOLD TECHS: Correcting Lower As Rally Falters Below 9 Month Channel Top
*RES 4: $1340.5 Sep 11 high
*RES 3: $1334.5 Sep 14 high
*RES 2: $1327.6 Hourly recovery high Sep 15
*RES 1: $1316.2 Sep 20 high
*PRICE: $1296.4 @0947GMT
*SUP 1: $1297.3 Aug 31 low
*SUP 2: $1292.3 Aug 11 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1281.2 50% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7
*SUP 4: $1274.7 Aug 25 low
*COMMENTARY* The pullback from the month's $1357.7 high has now reached down
below $1311.6, a 76.4% Fibo retrace of the most recent gains from the Aug 31 low
at $1297.3 and has also broken beneath the 2 month rising support line, at
$1313.8 by time today. Currently support from the Aug 31 low at $1297.3 is under
assault, below which will allow a deeper $1292.3-$1281.2 fall next. Meanwhile,
resistance from yesterday's $1316.2 high prohibits recoveries at present.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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