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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1993-$1.2033 Provides Near Term Resistance
*RES 4: $1.2093 Sep 8 high
*RES 3: $1.2064 1% volatility band
*RES 2: $1.2033/34 76.4% of $1.2093-$1.1837, Sep 20 high
*RES 1: $1.1993/03 76.4% of $1.2033-$1.1861, intraday high
*PRICE: $1.1993 @0847GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1945/55 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.1915/25 Hourly low/high Sep 21
*SUP 3: $1.1891 Hourly base Sep 21
*SUP 4: $1.1861 Sep 20 low
*COMMENTARY* Unable break through key 76.4% Fibo resistance from $1.2033 on
Wednesday, before giving way to some corrective pressure. This has seen a move
down to $1.1861 but so far has left the important $1.1823 support intact. As a
result, became oversold and the subsequent recovery is now back challenging into
$1.1993-$1.2033 resistance again. Meanwhile, support $1.1955-$1.1915, with
$1.1891-$1.1861 below. Above $1.2033 and on track for $1.2064-$1.2093 again.
CABLE TECHS: $1.3617-$1.3619 Becomes Pivotal To Direction Today
*RES 4: $1.3659 Sep 20 high
*RES 3: $1.3622 4 year falling resistance line
*RES 2: $1.3617/19 Sep 15, Sep 18 highs
*RES 1: $1.3596 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3566 @0855GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3510/15 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3485 Hourly congestion Sep 20-21
*SUP 3: $1.3452 Sep 20 low
*SUP 4: $1.3406 Sep 14 high, now support
*COMMENTARY*  Break above the 4 year falling resistance line  met selling
pressure on the arrival at the 2% volatility band on Wednesday. The latter has
since risen to $1.3700 by time today. The subsequent pullback broke slightly
below the previous support base around $1.3465, to reach $1.3452 before lifting
again. Now back through $1.3576-$1.3580 but above $1.3617-$1.3619 required to
switch overall bias higher again. Support $1.3515-$1.3485, loss will disappoint.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Falters Ahead Of Congested Y112.81-Y113.00 Resistance
*RES 4: Y113.27 Equality rise from Y109.55 to Y107.32-Y111.04
*RES 3: Y113.00 50% Fibo of Y118.67-Y107.32
*RES 2: Y112.72/81 Sep 21 high, 76.4% Fibo of Y114.50-Y107.32
*RES 1: Y112.20/30 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y112.05 @0908GMT
*SUP 1: Y111.65 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y111.45/50 Hourly congestion area Sep 20
*SUP 3: Y111.04/11 Sep 14 high, Sep 20 low 
*SUP 4: Y110.66/67 38.2% Fibo Y107.32-Y112.72, Aug 31 high
*COMMENTARY* Wednesday moved through through the Y112.20-Y112.42 barrier, toward
the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y112.81. This the first of congested resistance
from between here and Y113.00. This an area that also includes the year's
falling resistance line at Y112.98 and a longer term 50% Fibo retracement. In
the meantime, support from Y111.65-Y111.45, loss of the latter would caution
EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Still Faces Obstacles Between Y134.41-Y134.87
*RES 4: Y135.39 2% volatility band
*RES 3: Y134.87 Median line drawn off Apr,Jun lows, Aug highs
*RES 2: Y134.61 November 2015 high
*RES 1: Y134.41 61.8% Fibo of Y149.80-Y109.51
*PRICE: Y134.27 @0920GMT
*SUP 1: Y133.70/80 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y133.50 Intraday low
*SUP 3: Y133.26/27 Sep 20, Sep 19 lows
*SUP 4: Y132.95 Hourly base Sep 18
*COMMENTARY* Fresh strength on Tuesday saw Y134.17, in line with the upper 2%
volatility band at the time, this has risen to Y135.39 today. The upside is
still confronted with obstacles in the Y134's, today's move through Y134.17
challenging the 61.8% Fibo retrace at Y134.41, above which the Nov 2015 high and
the 5 month median line present the next Y134.61-Y134.87 barrier. Meanwhile,
support from Y133.80-Y133.50 should now stay intact, if rally to continue.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Recovery Beholden To Key Stg0.8900-Stg0.8908 Resistance
*RES 4: Stg0.8977/82 38.2% Stg0.9306-Stg0.8774, Sep 12 low
*RES 3: Stg0.8900/08 23.6% Fibo retrace, recovery high Sep 14
*RES 2: Stg0.8875 Congestion area Sep 19-20
*RES 1: Stg0.8845/55 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8836 @0930GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8798 Sep 20 low
*SUP 2: Stg0.8774/84 Sep 15, Sep 21 lows
*SUP 3: Stg0.8743 Jul 14 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.8715 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Unable as yet to find the strength for a break back above the key
Stg0.8900-Stg0.8908 resistance. Through here needed before the correction of
recent losses from Stg0.9306 can get a real kick start. This week's pullback
from beneath Stg0.8900, has so far been held at Stg0.8784, leaving last Friday's
Stg0.8774 low intact. The latter seen as the protection to the still important
Stg0.8743 level and the lower 2% volatility band, at Stg0.8715 today.
GOLD TECHS: Correcting Lower As Rally Falters Below 9 Month Channel Top
*RES 4: $1334.5 Sep 14 high
*RES 3: $1322.7 Sep 12 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $1316.2 Sep 20 high
*RES 1: $1304.7 Sep 18 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $1297.4 @0935GMT
*SUP 1: $1288.1 Sep 21 low
*SUP 2: $1281.2 50% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7
*SUP 3: $1274.7 Aug 25 low
*SUP 4: $1267.4 Aug 15 low
*COMMENTARY* The pullback from the month's $1357.7 high has now reached down
below $1311.6, a 76.4% Fibo retrace of the most recent gains from the Aug 31 low
at $1297.3 and has also broken beneath the 2 month rising support line, at
$1314.7 by time today. Now support from the Aug 31 low at $1297.3 has gone,
below which can allow a deeper $1281.2-$1274.7 fall next. Meanwhile, resistance
from $1304.7 and then Wednesday's $1316.2 high, prohibits recoveries.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email:

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