MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Continues, $1.1660 Now The Bar To Further Gains

*RES 4: $1.1747 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.1725/30 Oct 23, Oct 18 lows, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.1690 Nov 3 high

*RES 1: $1.1660/62 Hourly congestion Nov 2-Nov 3, i'day high

*PRICE: $1.1654 @1030GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1610/20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1579 Nov 8 low

*SUP 3: $1.1554 Nov 7 low

*SUP 4: $1.1502/06 swing of $1.1574-$1.1690 & $1.1649-$1.1880

*COMMENTARY* Found support from around the $1.1555 level on Tuesday, before

being rescued by some near term oversold conditions. Thursday's move back above

the previously troublesome $1.1616-$1.1624 is a positive and eyes are now on the

the slightly higher $1.1660 area. Clearly above the latter would give the

recovery a further boost. Meanwhile, $1.1620-$1.1610 is initial support, with

$1.1579 then protecting that $1.1554-55 area again.

CABLE TECHS: Again Approaching The Top Of This Week's Range

*RES 4: $1.3255 76.4% Fibo of $1.3322-$1.3039

*RES 3: $1.3240 Nov 1 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.3214 61.8% Fibo of $1.3322-$1.3039

*RES 1: $1.3180 50% Fibo of $1.3322-$1.3039

*PRICE: $1.3154 @1040GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3105 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3085/86 Nov 9, Nov 8 lows

*SUP 3: $1.3070 Congestion area Nov 3-Nov 6

*SUP 4: $1.3039 Nov 3 low

*COMMENTARY* Has encountered resistance from the 50% Fibo retrace level at

$1.3180, twice this week and is approaching this area again today. In the

interim, we have seen the downside slip back on a couple of occasions to

$1.3086-$1.3085. Need to escape this range, before the way will become clear for

the next move. Above $1.3180 and the correction can continue, likely aimed at

$1.3240-55. Lose $1.3085-$1.3070 and look to $1.2983-$1.2950.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Another Downside Assault But Still Within Recent Range

*RES 4: Y114.74 Nov 6 high

*RES 3: Y114.34 Nov 7 high

*RES 2: Y114.07 Nov 9 high

*RES 1: Y113.70/75 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y113.40 @1045GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.09 Nov 9 low

*SUP 2: Y112.96 Oct 31 low

*SUP 3: Y112.62 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y112.38 76.4% Fibo of Y111.65-Y114.74

*COMMENTARY* Continues to fall after the less than successful break above

Y114.45-50 on Monday. At the moment, the decline is still within the confines of

the recent range, with support found around Y113.09 on Thursday. This currently

the protection to the base of the range and key Y112.96 level. In the meantime,

nearest resistance falls to Y113.70-Y114.07 but will need to climb back above

Y114.34, before the recent bear bias will be reduced.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y132.27-Y132.42 Back In The Spotlight After Y131.40 Holds

*RES 4: Y133.15 Nov 2 high

*RES 3: Y132.85 Hourly congestion Nov 3

*RES 2: Y132.40/42 Nov 3 low, Nov 7 high

*RES 1: Y132.27 Nov 9 high

*PRICE: Y132.15 @1050GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.40/46 Nov 8, Oct 31 lows

*SUP 2: Y131.03 50% Fibo of Y127.56-Y134.50

*SUP 3: Y130.86/96 swing Y131.40-Y132.27, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y130.42 1.618 swing of Y131.46-Y133.15

*COMMENTARY* The pivotal Y131.85 level failed to halt the fall on Wednesday, the

subsequent drop heading straight towards and slightly below the Oct 31 low at

Y131.46. A sustained loss here will see the potential for a further

Y131.03-Y130.42 fall. In the interim, resistance also moves slightly,

yesterday's Y132.27 high now barring the way to the still important Y132.40-42.

Above here needed before things can improve again.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Hold Of Key Stg0.8782-Stg0.8784 Support Begins Correction

*RES 4: Stg0.8939 Nov 2 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8920 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.8912 Hourly recovery high Nov 3

*RES 1: Stg0.8885 Hourly recovery high Nov 6 

*PRICE: Stg0.8859 @1052MT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8824 Nov 9 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8791 Nov 7 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8782/84 76.4% of Stg0.8733-Stg0.8939, Nov 1 high

*SUP 4: Stg0.8743 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Found support from Stg0.8791 on Tuesday, thereby saving the

downside from a test to the pivotal Stg0.8784-Stg0.8782 area. That said, still

has some work to do, the subsequent move above back Stg0.8850 has been helpful

and allows for some greater correction of the recent fall from the month's

earlier Stg0.8939 high. This now sees Stg0.8885-Stg0.8912 come back into play.

In the meantime, Thursday's Stg0.8824 low acts as intermediate support.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2650-$1.2629 Next Supports As Decline Continues

*RES 4: $1.2820 Nov 7 high

*RES 3: $1.2775/85 Series hourly highs Nov 3, Nov 6, Nov 8

*RES 2: $1.2741 Nov 9 high

*RES 1: $1.2715/25 Nov 8 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2674 @1100GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2644/50 1% vol band, 1.618 swing $1.2715-$1.2820

*SUP 2: $1.2629/34 61.8% of $1.2451-$1.2917, Oct 25 low

*SUP 3: $1.2600/18 Oct 6 high, 61.8% of $1.2433-$1.2917

*SUP 4: $1.2547 76.4% Fibo of $1.2433-$1.2917

*COMMENTARY* Still retreating after Tuesday's surge to $1.2820, failed just shy

of the more interesting $1.2834-$1.2836 area. Now with the loss of the 50% Fibo

level at $1.2684 the downside faces a deeper $1.2650-$1.2629 fall as the

correction continues. In the interim, resistance from $1.2715-$1.2741 but back

above $1.2775-$1.2785 currently needed to begin any near term comeback.

GOLD TECHS: Recovery Meets Next Fibo Resistance From $1289.9

*RES 4: $1306.1 Oct 16 high

*RES 3: $1296.1 76.4% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 2: $1291.5 Oct 18 high

*RES 1: $1289.9 61.8% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*PRICE: $1284.0 @1107GMT

*SUP 1: $1276.0 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1271.8 Nov 7 low

*SUP 3: $1265.5 Nov 3 low

*SUP 4: $1263.8 Oct 27 low

*COMMENTARY* Rally is now trying to clear $1289.9 Fibo resistance. A successful

breach should allow a higher $1291.5-$1296.1 rise, as we continue to correct the

$1306.1-$1263.8 losses sustained since the previous recovery peaked on Oct 16.

As a result, support also on the rise, initially from $1276.0, this currently

protecting a sequence of $1271.8-$1265.5 lows, seen since the $1263.8 base at

the end of last month.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]