MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1825-$1.1828 The Immediate Barrier To This Recovery

*RES 4: $1.1931 Underside previously broken support line

*RES 3: $1.1880/87 Oct 12 high, 61.8% of $1.2093-$1.1554

*RES 2: $1.1861 Nov 15 high

*RES 1: $1.1825/28 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1798 @0955GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1745/50 Hourly base Nov 14, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1722 Nov 17 low

*SUP 3: $1.1678 Nov 10 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.1623 Nov 10 low

*COMMENTARY* The rally reached $1.1861 last Wednesday, pulling up shy of a

retest to the more important $1.1880-$1.1887 area. Had become stretched on a

near term basis and the appearance of a potentially bearish 'Shooting Star'

candle at Wednesday's close became a concern. Having lost $1.1785 there is scope

for some correction, $1.1750-$1.1722 the immediate interest below, last Friday's

$1.1678 high of more significance lower. Above $1.1887 and look to $1.1931-40.

CABLE TECHS: Recovery Continues, 1% Volatility Band The Next Resistance

*RES 4: $1.3418 61.8% Fibo of $1.3659-$1.3027, 2% vol band

*RES 3: $1.3338/43 Oct 13 high, 50% Fibo of $1.3659-$1.3027

*RES 2: $1.3322 Nov 1 high

*RES 1: $1.3298 1% volatility band

*PRICE: $1.3273 @1010GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3210/20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3186 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $1.3170 Nov 17 low

*SUP 4: $1.3135 Hourly high Nov 13, Nov 16 low

*COMMENTARY* Held support from above $1.3062 last week. The subsequent recovery

has since moved through $1.3188 and then $1.3230 resistance and is now

challenging more important levels between $1.3267-$1.3298. Will now need back

above the latter to swing near term bias back to the topside. In the meantime,

immediate support comes from above $1.3220-$1.3110 and this currently protects

against any corrective action.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Decline Sees Y111.91-Y111.65 As Next Region Of Support

*RES 4: Y113.33 Nov 16 high

*RES 3: Y112.95/00 Hourly congestion Nov 15-16

*RES 2: Y112.74 Nov 16 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y112.50 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y112.05 @1023GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.91/00 38.2% Fibo of Y107.32-Y114.74, 1% vol band

*SUP 2: Y111.65 Oct 16 low

*SUP 3: Y111.03 50% Fibo of Y107.32-Y114.74

*SUP 4: Y110.90 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The Y112.38-Y112.25 support area has now given way, allowing a fall

to the top of the next area of interest from between Y111.91-Y111.65. The latter

an outstanding low from the middle of last month. Some near term oversold

conditions currently being repaired but it will take a move back above Y112.50,

before any real respite will follow and allow a higher Y112.74-Y113.00 recovery.

Below Y111.65 and the next targeted area becomes Y111.03-Y110.90.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Decline Tests And Holds Key Y131.13-Y131.03 Support Area

*RES 4: Y133.46 Nov 16 high

*RES 3: Y133.25/30 Hourly congestion area Nov 15

*RES 2: Y132.80 Nov 15 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y132.47/53 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y132.19 @1048GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.55/65 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y131.03/13 50% of Y127.56-Y134.50, 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: Y130.62 Sep 14 low

*SUP 4: Y130.21 61.8% Fibo of Y127.56-Y134.50

*COMMENTARY* Rally tracked and was contained by the upper 1% volatility band at

Y133.89 last week, thereby failing to make any inroads into the previous Y134.50

high. The subsequent fall has been swift, testing the base of the recent range

and lower 1% volatility band between Y131.13-Y131.03. Some near term oversold

conditions have since prevailed, allowing a bounce. This sees Y132.47-Y132.53 as

immediate resistance, Y132.80-Y133.30 above.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Heads Toward A Test Of Stg0.8863-Stg0.8859 Support

*RES 4: Stg0.9015/22 Nov 15, Oct 20 highs

*RES 3: Stg0.8980 Hourly highs Nov 15

*RES 2: Stg0.8954 Nov 17 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8925/35 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8893 @1058GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8859/63 76.4% Stg0.8811-Stg0.9015, Nov 8 high

*SUP 2: Stg0.8837 Nov 13 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8811 Nov 10 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8797 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Faltered at Stg0.9015 last week, shy of the previous month's

Stg0.9022-Stg0.9032 highs. Wednesday's lower close, then saw the appearance of a

bearish 'Shooting Star' candle. This has resulted in a sharp fall, which today

heads towards the next area of support from between Stg0.8863-Stg0.8859. A loss

of the latter will be a further concern, attention then switching to the Nov 10

low at Stg0.8811. Resistance now Stg0.8925-Stg0.8935.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Recovery Falters Around Key $1.2820 Level

*RES 4: $1.2917/27 Oct 27 high, 50% of $1.3794-$1.2061

*RES 3: $1.2873 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.2856/60 76.4% of $1.2917-$1.2666

*RES 1: $1.2820/24 Nov 7 high, 61.8% Fibo, Nov 17 high

*PRICE: $1.2777 @1107GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2755 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2740 76.4% Fibo of $1.2714-$1.2824

*SUP 3: $1.2714 Nov 17 low

*SUP 4: $1.2666 Nov 10 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from the month's earlier $1.2666 low eventually made

it to $1.2824 last Friday, just above the Nov 7 high and 61.8% Fibo retrace

level at $1.2820. Has subsequently retreated, aided by some near term overbought

conditions. The $1.2755-$1.2740 area now becomes the support  to watch, needing

a hold here and then break back above $1.2820-24, if the rally is to continue.

Loss will caution and eventually see pressure return to $1.2714-$1.2666.

GOLD TECHS: Reaches Higher, $1296.1 The Next Resistance To Overcome

*RES 4: $1320.6 61.8% Fibo of $1357.7-$1260.7

*RES 3: $1309.2 50% Fibo of $1357.7-$1260.7

*RES 2: $1306.1 Oct 16 high

*RES 1: $1296.1 76.4% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*PRICE: $1292.0 @1118GMT

*SUP 1: $1284.4 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1280.0 Hourly congestion area Nov 17

*SUP 3: $1275.2 Nov 16 low

*SUP 4: $1269.9 Nov 14 low

*COMMENTARY* The move below the key $1271.8 support was brief and quickly

reversed last Tuesday. The subsequent recovery has resulted in a break on

Friday, above key near term Fibo resistance at $1289.9. This now sees the 76.4%

Fibo level at $1296.1 as the next obstacle to surmount, if the rally is set to

continue. In the interim, look to $1284.4-$1280.0 for support. While above, then

through $1296.1 sees $1306.1-$1309.2 as the next area to overcome.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]