MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Pauses For Breath Around Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2167 50% Fibo of $1.3994-$1.0340

*RES 3: $1.2130/43 swing $1.2081-$1.2001, 2 month channel top 

*RES 2: $1.2093 Sep 8 high

*RES 1: $1.2075/81 1% volatility band, Jan 2 high

*PRICE: $1.2045 @1014GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2001 Jan 3 low

*SUP 2: $1.1993 Hourly base Dec 29

*SUP 3: $1.1937 Dec 29 low

*SUP 4: $1.1900/10 Dec 25, Dec 27 highs, now support

*COMMENTARY* The pullback has stayed above key near term support from $1.1993.

While intact, then the immediate momentum still remains with the topside. In

this respect, there is still resistance from between the upper 1% volatility

band and the Sep 8 high to consider, before the way becomes clear for a higher

$1.2130-$1.2167 rise. Loss of $1.1993 will caution and suggest that the time is

ripe for some deeper correction of gains from last month's $1.1717 low.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3495 Remains Pivotal To Near Term Direction

*RES 4: $1.3704 3 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: $1.3659 Sep 20 high

*RES 2: $1.3613 Jan 3 high

*RES 1: $1.3570/85 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3543 @1022GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3494/95 Jan 3 low, hourly base Dec 29

*SUP 2: $1.3457/67 Dec 28, Dec 14 highs, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3419/21 Dec 18, Dec 20 highs, now support

*SUP 4: $1.3375 Congestion area Dec 19-Dec 27

*COMMENTARY* Support has been found around $1.3495, so far keeping the focus

away from the Dec 14 high at $1.3467, above which any setback should really hold

now, if near term upside momentum is to be retained. In this respect, attention

now switches back to $1.3570-$1.3585 initially, the upper 1% volatility band, at

$1.3598 by time today, could well feature higher, ahead of Wednesday's $1.3613

high. This then the bar to a return to last year's $1.3659 peak.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.79-Y111.84 Provides Resistance To Recovery Hopes

*RES 4: Y113.64 Dec 21 high

*RES 3: Y113.38 Dec 27 high

*RES 2: Y113.00/12 Hourly high Dec 28, Dec 26 low

*RES 1: Y112.79/84 Jan 1, Jan 2 highs, Dec 25 low

*PRICE: Y112.55 @1033GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.20/25 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y111.95/03 61.8% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75, Dec 15 low

*SUP 3: Y111.75 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y111.53 76.4% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75

*COMMENTARY* Having held above Y112.03 support on Tuesday, the recovery has

since run into initial resistance from the week's earlier Y112.79 highs. A move

back through here and also the Dec 25 low at Y112.84 is currently required to

breathe new life into the topside and a higher Y113.00-Y113.38 rise, where next

questions are then asked. Support from Y112.20 protects against another Y112.03

test, beneath which would open up a Y111.95-Y111.53 fall.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Again Eyes The Swing Target At Y135.82

*RES 4: Y136.41 1.618 swing of Y134.41-Y131.17

*RES 3: Y136.30 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y136.15 Hourly resistance

*RES 1: Y135.82 1.618 swing of Y134.38-Y132.05

*PRICE: Y135.67 @1044GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.25/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y135.00 Initial recovery high Jan 3, now support

*SUP 3: Y134.80 Jan 3 low

*SUP 4: Y134.55/60 Congestion area Dec 25-Dec 28

*COMMENTARY* Has overcome a dip to Y134.80 on Wednesday before launching into a

fresh rally which is currently above the week's earlier Y135.64 high but as yet

awaits a test to the next upside marker, the swing target at Y135.82. Clearance

here required, before thoughts can turn to the higher Y136.15-Y136.41 area,

where next resistance is then anticipated to appear. Support as a consequence,

rises to Y135.35-Y135.00. The latter important to near term momentum.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8900 Break Needed To Revive Upside Interest

*RES 4: Stg0.8951 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.9032-Stg0.8689

*RES 3: Stg0.8925 1.618 swing of Stg0.8891-Stg0.8836

*RES 2: Stg0.8916/18 Equality rise from 0.8760, Jan 2 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8900 Hourly high Jan 2, Jan 3 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8892 @1050GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8860/65 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8848 Jan 3 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8836 Dec 22 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8792 Dec 18 low

*COMMENTARY* Rally moved above the initial swing target at Stg0.8900 earlier in

the week but was curtailed around the equality rise target in the slightly

higher Stg0.8916 area. This and a second swing target at Stg0.8925, present the

potential bar to a return towards Stg0.8951 Fibo resistance and the Nov 28 high

at Stg0.8981. In the meantime, we have seen a pullback to Stg0.8848 which has

helped to reduce near term overbought conditions.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Decline Moves Toward Top Of $1.2491-$1.2433 Support

*RES 4: $1.2662/69 Hourly recovery highs Dec 27

*RES 3: $1.2628 Dec 28 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2590 Dec 29 high

*RES 1: $1.2566/70 Jan 2 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2519 @1059GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2491/99 50% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921, Jan 3 low

*SUP 2: $1.2433 Oct 12 low

*SUP 3: $1.2390 61.8% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921

*SUP 4: $1.2353 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Having lost pivotal $1.2694 support, continued to fall at the end

of last month. Having fallen below last week's $1.2515 low, we now reach towards

what looks like decent support, currently situated between $1.2491-$1.2433. This

ahead of Fibo support at $1.2390 and then the lower 2% volatility band, a known

inhibitor of both losses and gains. In the meantime, resistance from firstly

$1.2566-70 and then $1.2590 currently prevent any recovery potential.

GOLD TECHS: $1302.2 Support Protects Against Any Corrective Action

*RES 4: $1357.7 Sep 4 high

*RES 3: $1334.8 Sep 13 high

*RES 2: $1329.1 76.4% Fibo of $1357.7-$1236.6

*RES 1: $1321.6 Jan 2 high

*PRICE: $1313.3 @1055GMT

*SUP 1: $1302.2 Jan 1 low

*SUP 2: $1289.2 Dec 27 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1276.3 Dec 22 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1268.0 Dec 20 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* The move above $1267.8 triggered immediate upside interest, further

aided by the recovery through the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5. This

makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from last September look like a three wave

correction. We have subsequently broken through $1311.4-$1313.8 resistance. A

sustained hold above and look to $1329.1 as the next target. Meanwhile, support

from $1302.2 protects against any corrective potential.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]