MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Loses Ground After Failing To Trouble 2017 High

*RES 4: $1.2167 50% Fibo of $1.3994-$1.0340

*RES 3: $1.2155 2 month channel top projection

*RES 2: $1.2089/00 Jan 4, Sep 8 highs, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.2050/60 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1989 @0955GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1980/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1953 50% Fibo of $1.1817-$1.2089

*SUP 3: $1.1921 61.8% Fibo of $1.1817-$1.2089

*SUP 4: $1.1902/10 Dec 20, Dec 27 highs, now support

*COMMENTARY* Key near term support from around the $1.1993 area has wobbled

today, some support from between $1.1980-85, where the 38.2% Fibo retrace of the

latest $1.1817-$1.2089 rise also lies, is currently keeping us from a deeper

correction of those gains. Meanwhile, after failing to trouble $1.2093 and the

upper 1% volatility band at the end of last week, the $1.2050-60 region provides

a potential barrier to any attempts at a recovery.

CABLE TECHS: Focus Switches To $1.3494-$1.3467 Support

*RES 4: $1.3717 3 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: $1.3635/59 1% volatility band, Sep 20 high

*RES 2: $1.3613 Jan 3 high

*RES 1: $1.3585/86 Hourly resistance, intraday high

*PRICE: $1.3532 @1010GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3515 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3494/95 Jan 3 low, hourly base Dec 29

*SUP 3: $1.3457/67 Dec 28, Dec 14 highs, now support

*SUP 4: $1.3419/21 Dec 18, Dec 20 highs, now support

*COMMENTARY* Support found around $1.3495 last week, so far keeping the focus

away from the Dec 14 high at $1.3467, above which any setback should really hold

now, if near term upside momentum is to be retained. In this respect, attention

now switches back to $1.3585 initially, the upper 1% volatility band, which

could well feature higher, now rises to $1.3635, just above last Wednesday's

$1.3613 high. This then the bar to a return to last year's $1.3659 peak.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Faces Congested Resistance Between Y113.27-Y113.82

*RES 4: Y114.00 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Y113.75/82 Dec 12 high, 76.4% of Y114.74-Y110.84

*RES 2: Y113.64 Dec 21 high

*RES 1: Y113.38/39 Dec 27, intraday highs

*PRICE: Y113.15 @1025GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.71/87 Jan 4 high, now support

*SUP 2: Y112.35/40 Congestion area Jan 2-3

*SUP 3: Y111.95/03 61.8% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75, Dec 15 low

*SUP 4: Y111.53 76.4% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75

*COMMENTARY* Further upside interest was generated by Friday's sustained break

above Y112.79-Y112.84. Back above here and the 76.4% Fibo retrace at Y113.27 was

the first of a congested set of resistance between here and Y113.82. Not until

we can clear the latter, will the topside breathe more easily. Nearest support

of note now seen from between Y112.87-Y112.71, loss would put pressure on

Y112.40-Y112.35, this the protection against a Y111.95-Y111.53 fall.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Still Respecting Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Y137.47 September 2015 high

*RES 3: Y136.99 October 2015 high

*RES 2: Y136.64/67 Jan 5 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y136.32/36 Intraday high, hourly high Jan 5

*PRICE: Y135.75 @1035GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.61/64 Intraday low, Jan 2 high

*SUP 2: Y135.44/46 Hourly highs Jan 4, now support

*SUP 3: Y135.16 Initial recovery high Jan 3, now support

*SUP 4: Y134.80 Jan 3 low

*COMMENTARY* Once again the rise has respected the upper 1% volatility band, at

Y136.67 by time today. Will currently need to sustain a break above here, before

any further upside acceleration can follow. Meanwhile, the subsequent loss of

Y136.00 opens potential for some correction of gains, initially from last

Wednesday's Y134.80 low. In this respect, the Y135.64-Y135.15 area comes back

into play. Topside will need a move back above Y132.36 to reclaim some momentum.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Swing Target At Stg0.8925 Caps And Correction Ensues

*RES 4: Stg0.8965 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.8951 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.9032-Stg0.8689

*RES 2: Stg0.8925 1.618 swing Stg0.8891-Stg0.8836, Jan 4 hi

*RES 1: Stg0.8895/05 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8864 @1045GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8848 Jan 3 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8836 Dec 22 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8805/10 Congestion area mid December

*SUP 4: Stg0.8787 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Rally moved above initial Stg0.8900-Stg0.8916 resistance last week

but was eventually curtailed by the slightly higher swing target at Stg0.8925.

This presenting the potential bar to a return towards Stg0.8951 Fibo resistance

and the Nov 28 high at Stg0.8981. In the meantime, nearest support from

Stg0.8880-Stg0.8865 has been lost, leaving the downside vulnerable to some

correction, Stg0.8848-Stg0.8836 now protecting against a deeper fall.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Moves From One Side Of Bear Channel To The Other

*RES 4: $1.2556 Jan 4 high

*RES 3: $1.2514 Jan 5 high

*RES 2: $1.2482/84 3 week falling res line,initial low Jan 5, 

*RES 1: $1.2420/35 Intraday high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2404 @1055GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2355 Jan 5 low

*SUP 2: $1.2322 3 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: $1.2315 Max 5th wave tgt in fall from $1.2921

*SUP 4: $1.2264 76.4% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921

*COMMENTARY* Last Friday saw a one day fall from one side of the 3 week bear

channel to the other. A low of $1.2355 seen so far. The parameters of this

channel have moved slightly today, the base now coming in at $1.2322, just above

the maximum 5th wave target in the fall from $1.2921, at $1.2315. Beneath which

lies the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2264. Resistance likely from between

$1.2415-35, above the latter would provide some respite.

GOLD TECHS: Rally Finally Nears Fibo Resistance At $1329.1

*RES 4: $1357.7 Sep 4 high

*RES 3: $1334.8 Sep 13 high

*RES 2: $1329.1 76.4% Fibo of $1357.7-$1236.6

*RES 1: $1326.1 Jan 4 high

*PRICE: $1320.5 @1057GMT

*SUP 1: $1305.9 Jan 4 low

*SUP 2: $1289.2 Dec 27 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1281.4 Dec 27 low

*SUP 4: $1276.3 Dec 22 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* The move above $1267.8 triggered immediate upside interest, further

aided by the recovery through the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5. This

makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from last September look like a three wave

correction. We have subsequently broken through $1311.4-$1313.8 resistance. A

sustained hold above and look to $1329.1 as the next target. Meanwhile, support

from $1305.9 now protects against any corrective potential.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]