MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Still Paying Respect To Upper 2% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2376 1.618x $1.1554-$1.1961 from $1.1717

*RES 3: $1.2339/45 2% vol band, 8 week bull channel top

*RES 2: $1.2323/29 Intraday high, Oct 2008 low

*RES 1: $1.2297 Jan 15 high

*PRICE: $1.2230 @1639GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2195/97 Jan 16 low, intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.2165 Hourly low/high Jan 12

*SUP 3: $1.2089/93 Jan 4, Sep 8 lows, now resistance

*SUP 4: $1.2059/67 Jan 11 high, initial high Jan 12

*COMMENTARY* The rally peaked at $1.2297 on Monday, basically in line with a

test to the upper 2% volatility band. This has moved slightly higher by time

today to $1.2339, just below the 8 week bull channel top. Have subsequently seen

a dip to $1.2195. This and the slightly lower $1.2165 level currently protect

against some deeper correction of gains from last week's $1.1916 low. Above

$1.2345 and $1.2360-$1.2376 are next barrier to the swing target at $1.2426.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3863-$1.3885 Now The Next Upside Target Area

*RES 4: $1.4020 13 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: $1.3916 2% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.3883/85 38.2% $1.7192-$1.1838,50% $1.5932-$1.1838

*RES 1: $1.3863 2 month bull channel top projection

*PRICE: $1.3830 @1652GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3775/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3742/57 Jan 16, intraday lows

*SUP 3: $1.3693 Hourly high Jan 12, now support

*SUP 4: $1.3659 Sep 20 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Reached $1.3820 on Monday, just shy of the equality rise target at

$1.3825, before giving up some ground and a pullback to $1.3742. This helped to

reduce overbought hourly conditions. The subsequent rise has broken $1.3825 and 

the Feb 2016 low at $1.3836, with greater resistance anticipated from the higher

$1.3863-$1.3885 region. The upper 2% volatility band is at $1.3916 today.

Support $1.3785-$1.3775 ahead of $1.3757-$1.3742, loss would caution.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Recovery Needs Y110.98-Y111.45 Break For Any Impetus

*RES 4: Y111.88 Jan 11 high

*RES 3: Y111.70 Jan 12 high

*RES 2: Y111.40/45 Congestion area Jan 10-12

*RES 1: Y110.98 Jan 16 high

*PRICE: Y110.83 @1654GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.33/35 Jan 15 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y110.15 61.8% Fibo of Y107.32-Y114.74

*SUP 3: Y109.79 Equality fall from Y113.69 to Y114.74-Y110.84

*SUP 4: Y109.64/73 2% vol band, 11 week bear channel base

*COMMENTARY* Monday's fall extended slightly below hourly support at Y110.40, a

low of Y110.33 before bouncing to correct some near term oversold conditions.

While this remains below Y110.98 initially and more importantly Y111.40-45, then

this remains just corrective. Below Y110.33 and the 61.8% Fibo retrace at

Y110.15 is the next protection against a deeper Y109.79-Y109.64 fall. The latter

the current level of the lower 2% volatility band.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Still Faces Congested Resistance Within The Y136's

*RES 4: Y136.88 4 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: Y136.53/64 1% volatility band, Jan 5 high

*RES 2: Y136.10 Jan 15 high

*RES 1: Y135.85/90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y135.54 @1656GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.15/20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y134.93/98 38.2% of Y133.05-Y136.10, Jan 16 low

*SUP 3: Y134.58 Hourly low Jan 12, 50% of Y133.05-Y136.10

*SUP 4: Y134.16/22 Initial high Jan 12, 61.8% Fibo

*COMMENTARY* Found support from the dual Y133.05-Y133.10 area last Thursday.

Mainly due to a bounce from the 5 month rising support line. The subsequent

rally back through Y134.20-Y134.56 began a correction of recent losses from the

Jan 5 high at Y136.64, Monday's rise through Y135.79 once again sees the topside

focus on still congested resistance from between Y136.10-Y136.88. Will need to

escape the latter before real confidence will grow. Support Y135.20-Y134.93.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8840 Becomes Pivotal To Near Term Direction

*RES 4: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8951/54 76.4% of 0.9032-0.8689, 1% vol band

*RES 2: Stg0.8925/30 Jan 4, Jan 12 highs

*RES 1: Stg0.8910/13 Jan 15, Jan 11 highs

*PRICE: Stg0.8847 @1700GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8840 Hourly low Jan 10

*SUP 2: Stg0.8827 Initial recovery high Jan 10, now support

*SUP 3: Stg0.8806/09 50% of Stg0.8689-Stg0.8925, Jan 9 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8779 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8689-Stg0.8925

*COMMENTARY* Having held into the key Stg0.8805-Stg0.8810 support area last

week, began a recovery which saw an extension through Stg0.8873-Stg0.8900. Once

again ran into resistance from our old friend Stg0.8925-Stg0.8930 and it is

through here that is still required before thoughts can turn to the higher

Stg0.8951-Stg0.8981 region. Support now comes from Stg0.8840, loss will leave

downside vulnerable to further correction.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Correction Seemingly Done As Pressure Resumes

*RES 4: $1.2590/91 Dec 29, Jan 11 highs

*RES 3: $1.2556 Jan 12 high

*RES 2: $1.2542 Intraday high

*RES 1: $1.2495/05 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2423 @1710GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2397/03 Jan 16 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2355 Jan 5 low

*SUP 3: $1.2333 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.2282 Previously broken 4 week resistance line

*COMMENTARY* Early downside pressure saw a dip to $1.2364 as we strive to

maintain a break below $1.2411 Fibo support. Unable to do this as yet, today's

bounce above $1.2472 resistance has allowed a greater correction of losses from

the Jan 11 high at $1.2591, with a high of $1.2542 on the day. Meanwhile

$1.2403-$1.2397 protects against another push lower, $1.2355 still the brake to

a deeper $1.2333-$1.2264 fall.

GOLD TECHS: Focus Now On Last September's $1357.7 High

*RES 4: $1375.4 Jul 8 2016 high

*RES 3: $1367.3 Aug 1 high

*RES 2: $1357.7 Sep 4 high

*RES 1: $1344.8 Jan 15 high

*PRICE: $1334.5 @1712GMT

*SUP 1: $1330.9 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1326.1 Jan 4 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1315.8 Jan 11 low

*SUP 4: $1308.3 Jan 10 low

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave correction. We have comfortably held above

$1305.9 support over the last couple of weeks. Last Friday's break through

$1334.8-$1337.1 the next upside boost, as we make our way back towards the Sep 4

high at $1357.7. Support $1330.9-$1326.1 keeps immediate bias higher.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]