MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Still Has Channel Top & Upper 2% Volatility Band

Ahead

*RES 4: $1.2421 1.618 swing of $1.2323-$1.2165

*RES 3: $1.2376 1.618x $1.1554-$1.1961 from $1.1717, 2% vol

*RES 2: $1.2323/36 Oct 2008 low, 3 month bull channel proj'n

*RES 1: $1.2288 Hourly recovery high Jan 117

*PRICE: $1.2273 @0907GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2190/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2165 Jan 17 low, hourly high/low Jan 12

*SUP 3: $1.2089/93 Jan 4, Sep 8 highs, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2059/67 Jan 11 high, initial high Jan 12

*COMMENTARY* Still tilting it's cap to both the 3 month bull channel top and

also the upper 2% volatility band. These today are at $1.2336 and $1.2376

respectively. After reaching $1.2323 on Wednesday, some extremely overbought

hourly conditions produced a $1.2165 pullback. This a 38.2% Fibo retrace of

recent gains from $1.1916. While above, look to $1.2288 for clues. Need back

above here to add fresh impetus and reduce further downside risk.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3943 Break Needed To Renew Upside Enthusiasm

*RES 4: $1.4050 1.618 swing of $1.3659-$1.3027

*RES 3: $1.4025 13 month bull channel top projection

*RES 2: $1.3987 2% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.3943 Jan 18 high

*PRICE: $1.3929 @0924GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3835/55 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3804 Jan 18 low

*SUP 3: $1.3757 Jan 17 low

*SUP 4: $1.3693 Hourly high Jan 12, now support

*COMMENTARY* Rally reached a high of $1.3943 on Wednesday, testing the upper 2%

volatility band, before retreating quickly. Settled so far at $1.3804, this and

$1.3757 remain important support and key to retaining recent upside momentum.

Meanwhile, earlier support on the day comes from $1.3855-$1.3835. Above $1.3943

and the 2% band has risen to $1.3987, ahead of bull channel and swing targets in

the higher $1.4025-$1.4050 region.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y110.50 Support Protects Against Fresh Downside Interest

*RES 4: Y112.06/17 Jan 2 low, 61.8% of Y113.39-Y110.19

*RES 3: Y111.70/88 Jan 12, Jan 11 highs

*RES 2: Y111.48 Jan 18 high

*RES 1: Y111.25 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y110.61 @0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y110.15/19 61.8% of Y107.32-Y114.74, Jan 17 low

*SUP 3: Y109.79 Equality fall from Y113.69 to Y114.74-Y110.84

*SUP 4: Y109.39 1.618 swing of Y110.19-Y111.48

*COMMENTARY* Has found support from the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Y110.15, the

subsequent rally correcting some of the recent losses from last week's Y113.39

high. In this respect, look to Y111.25-Y111.48 for initial resistance,

Y111.70-Y111.88 then the brake to more important Y112.06-Y112.17 levels. As a

consequence, support rises to Y110.50, loss of the latter would caution now and

put pressure back on the downside.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Still Facing Congested Resistance Within The Y136's

*RES 4: Y136.94 4 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: Y136.79 1.618 swing of Y136.10-Y134.98

*RES 2: Y136.64 Jan 5 high

*RES 1: Y136.31/47 Jan 18 high, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Y135.81 @0934GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.30/50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y134.98/02 Jan 16, Jan 15 lows

*SUP 3: Y134.58 Hourly low Jan 12

*SUP 4: Y134.35 Jan 11 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Found support from the dual Y133.05-Y133.10 area last Thursday.

Mainly due to a bounce from the 5 month rising support line. The subsequent

rally back through Y134.20-Y134.56 began a recovery of recent losses from the

Jan 5 high at Y136.64, Monday's rise through Y135.79 once again sees the topside

focus on still congested resistance, now from between Y136.31-Y136.94. Will need

to escape the latter before real confidence will grow. Support Y135.50-Y135.30.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Pressure Continues On The Stg0.8809-Stg0.8802 Area

*RES 4: Stg0.8909/10 Jan 17, Jan 15 highs

*RES 3: Stg0.8885 Hourly basing area Jan 15-17

*RES 2: Stg0.8870 Hourly congestion Jan 12-16

*RES 1: Stg0.8855 Jan 12 low, now resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8818 @0937GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8802/09 Jan 18 low, Jan 9, 17 lows

*SUP 2: Stg0.8779 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8689-Stg0.8925

*SUP 3: Stg0.8757 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8744 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8689-Stg0.8925

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from last week's failure at Stg0.8925 continues.

Wednesday's loss of the pivotal Stg0.8840 level, again heaping pressure back on

Stg0.8809-Stg0.8802 support. Above here there are now layers of resistance from

between Stg0.8855 and the now important Stg0.8909-10 area, that need to be

recovered, before the near term bias can return to the topside. Sustained loss

of Stg0.8802, has Stg0.8779-Stg0.8744 potential.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Correction Reaches $1.2542 Before Giving Up Ground

*RES 4: $1.2590/91 Dec 29, Jan 11 highs

*RES 3: $1.2556 Jan 12 high

*RES 2: $1.2542 Jan 17 high

*RES 1: $1.2488/02 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2410 @0952GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2393/00 Jan 16, Jan 18 lows

*SUP 2: $1.2355 Jan 5 low

*SUP 3: $1.2328 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.2264 76.4% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921

*COMMENTARY* Early downside pressure saw a dip to $1.2364 on Wednesday as we

strive to maintain a break below $1.2411 Fibo support. Unable to do this as yet,

the bounce back above $1.2472 resistance has allowed a greater correction of

losses from the Jan 11 high at $1.2591, with a high of $1.2542 on the day.

Meanwhile $1.2400-$1.2393 protects against another push lower, $1.2355 still the

brake to a deeper $1.2328-$1.2264 fall.

GOLD TECHS: $1340.0 Stands In The Way Of Fresh Upside Potential

*RES 4: $1367.3 Aug 1 high

*RES 3: $1357.7 Sep 4 high

*RES 2: $1344.8 Jan 15 high

*RES 1: $1340.0 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1335.7 @0955GMT

*SUP 1: $1322.2 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1315.8 Jan 11 low

*SUP 3: $1308.3 Jan 10 low

*SUP 4: $1303.5 38.2% Fibo of $1236.6-$1344.8

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave correction. We have held above $1305.9

support over the last couple of weeks. Last Friday's break through $1337.1 the

next upside boost, as we make our way back towards the Sep 4 high at $1357.7.

Currently correcting some overbought conditions, support $1322.2-$1315.8.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]