MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Consolidating Above 38.2% Fibo Support At $1.2165

*RES 4: $1.2421 1.618 swing of $1.2323-$1.2165

*RES 3: $1.2376 1.618x $1.1554-$1.1961 from $1.1717

*RES 2: $1.2323/42 Oct 2008 low, 3 month bull channel proj'n

*RES 1: $1.2295 Jan 19 high

*PRICE: $1.2254 @1015GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2195/15 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2165 Jan 17 low, hourly high/low Jan 12

*SUP 3: $1.2089/93 Jan 4, Sep 8 highs, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2059/67 Jan 11 high, initial high Jan 12

*COMMENTARY* After finding some support from the 38.2% Fibo retrace at $1.2165

last week, is now consolidating above $1.2215-$1.2195. While these supports

survive, there is scope to see another attempt higher, $1.2295 currently in the

way of fresh gains, with the 3 month bull channel top at $1.2342 today, ahead of

the projection target at $1.2376 and 2% volatility band at $1.2401. Loss of

$1.2165 will caution however.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3857-$1.3839 Provide Intraday Support

*RES 4: $1.4050 1.618 swing of $1.3659-$1.3027

*RES 3: $1.4029 13 month bull channel top projection

*RES 2: $1.4017 2% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.3943/46 Jan 18,19 highs

*PRICE: $1.3908 @1027GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3839/57 Jan 19 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3804 Jan 18 low

*SUP 3: $1.3757 Jan 17 low

*SUP 4: $1.3693 Hourly high Jan 12, now support

*COMMENTARY* Rally reached highs of $1.3943-$1.3946 last week, originally held

by the upper 2% volatility band, before retreating quickly. Settled so far at

$1.3804, this and $1.3757 remain important support and key to retaining recent

upside momentum. Meanwhile, earlier support on the day comes from

$1.3857-$1.3839. Above $1.3946 and the 2% band has risen to $1.4017, ahead of

bull channel and swing targets in the higher $1.4029-$1.4050 region.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y110.50 Support Protects Against Fresh Downside Interest

*RES 4: Y112.06/17 Jan 2 low, 61.8% of Y113.39-Y110.19

*RES 3: Y111.70/88 Jan 12, Jan 11 highs

*RES 2: Y111.48 Jan 18 high

*RES 1: Y111.25 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y110.70 @1030GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.49/50 Jan 19 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y110.15/19 61.8% of Y107.32-Y114.74, Jan 17 low

*SUP 3: Y109.79 Equality fall from Y113.69 to Y114.74-Y110.84

*SUP 4: Y109.39 1.618 swing of Y110.19-Y111.48

*COMMENTARY* Has found support from the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Y110.15, the

subsequent rally correcting some of the recent losses from the month's Y113.39

high. In this respect, look to Y111.25-Y111.48 for initial resistance,

Y111.70-Y111.88 then the brake to more important Y112.06-Y112.17 levels. As a

consequence, support rises to Y110.50, loss of the latter would caution now and

put pressure back on the downside.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Still Facing Congested Resistance Within The Y136's

*RES 4: Y136.97 4 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: Y136.79 1.618 swing of Y136.10-Y134.98

*RES 2: Y136.64 Jan 5 high

*RES 1: Y136.31/49 Jan 18 high, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Y135.77 @1042GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.19 Jan 19 low

*SUP 2: Y134.98/02 Jan 16, Jan 15 lows

*SUP 3: Y134.58 Hourly low Jan 12

*SUP 4: Y134.35 Jan 11 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Currently range trading above support from Y135.19-Y134.98. Need to

hold the latter, if a deeper corrective pullback is to be avoided. Within the

range, Friday's 136.05 high is the bar to a fresh attempt higher, which still

sees congested resistance from between Y136.31-Y136.97 as having the potential

to put a dampener on any recovery. Will need to escape the latter before real

belief in the topside will appear.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Pressure Continues On The Stg0.8809-Stg0.8802 Area

*RES 4: Stg0.8909/10 Jan 17, Jan 15 highs

*RES 3: Stg0.8885 Hourly basing area Jan 15-17

*RES 2: Stg0.8870 Hourly congestion Jan 12-16

*RES 1: Stg0.8855 Jan 12 low, now resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8817 @1045GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8802/09 Jan 18 low, Jan 9, 17 lows

*SUP 2: Stg0.8779 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8689-Stg0.8925

*SUP 3: Stg0.8755 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8744 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8689-Stg0.8925

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from this month's failure at Stg0.8925 continues. Last

Wednesday's loss of the pivotal Stg0.8840 level, again heaping pressure back on

Stg0.8809-Stg0.8802 support. Above here there are now layers of resistance from

between Stg0.8855 and the now important Stg0.8909-10 area, that need to be

recovered, before the near term bias can return to the topside. Sustained loss

of Stg0.8802, has Stg0.8779-Stg0.8744 potential.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Consolidation Continues Below $1.2509-$1.2556

*RES 4: $1.2590/91 Dec 29, Jan 11 highs

*RES 3: $1.2556 Jan 12 high

*RES 2: $1.2542 Jan 17 high

*RES 1: $1.2509 Jan 19 high

*PRICE: $1.2465 @1055GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2425/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2393/00 Jan 16, Jan 18 lows

*SUP 3: $1.2355 Jan 5 low

*SUP 4: $1.2341 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Continues to push higher as we correct losses from the Jan 11 high

at $1.2591. Currently has $1.2509-$1.2556 in the way of another challenge to

that high. As a result, support also rises, $1.2435-$1.2425 offering initial

protection, the $1.2400-$1.2393 providing a more important area below. Have to

stay above the latter or bias will again return lower, leaving the Jan 5 low at

$1.2355 vulnerable again, ahead of the 1% volatility band at $1.2341.

GOLD TECHS: $1340.0 Stands In The Way Of Fresh Upside Potential

*RES 4: $1367.3 Aug 1 high

*RES 3: $1357.7 Sep 4 high

*RES 2: $1344.8 Jan 15 high

*RES 1: $1340.0 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1333.8 @1058GMT

*SUP 1: $1322.2 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1315.8 Jan 11 low

*SUP 3: $1308.3 Jan 10 low

*SUP 4: $1303.5 38.2% Fibo of $1236.6-$1344.8

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave correction. We have held above $1305.9

support over the last few weeks. The subsequent break through $1337.1 the next

upside boost, as we make our way back towards the Sep 4 high at $1357.7.

Currently correcting some overbought conditions, support $1322.2-$1315.8.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]