MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Full Recovery Still Requires A $1.2523-$1.2538 Break

*RES 4: $1.2647 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.2598/18 61.8% $1.3994-$1.0340, 3 month res line

*RES 2: $1.2538 Jan 25 high

*RES 1: $1.2523 Feb 1 high, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: $1.2483 @0930GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2470/75 Hourly support, Jan 31 high

*SUP 2: $1.2432 Hourly base Feb 1

*SUP 3: $1.2384/85 Hourly base Jan 30, Feb 1 low

*SUP 4: $1.2335 Jan 30 low

*COMMENTARY* Moving gradually higher but still in need of a move back through

$1.2523-$1.2538 in order to shake off the negative signals provided by last

Thursday's 'Doji' candle close on the daily chart. Support moving higher as

well, $1.2475-$1.2470 the initial protection against a deeper $1.2432 fall. The

$1.2385-$1.2384 area now seen as key support. Sustained break above $1.2538

allows a further $1.2598-$1.2618 rise next, ahead of the 2% volatility band.

CABLE TECHS: Sustained $1.4287 Break Remains Key To Fresh Upside Potential

*RES 4: $1.4399 14 month bull channel top

*RES 3: $1.4368 61.8% Fibo of $1.5932-$1.1838

*RES 2: $1.4346 Jan 25 high

*RES 1: $1.4284/87 1% volatility band, Jan 26 high

*PRICE: $1.4213 @0937GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4180/90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.4151/59 Hourly base Jan 31, intraday low

*SUP 3: $1.4122 Jan 31 low

*SUP 4: $1.4050 76.4% Fibo of $1.3980-$1.4279

*COMMENTARY* Thursday saw a challenge into the $1.4260-$1.4287 area, a high of

$1.4279 so far. Need to sustain a break back above $1.4287 to return near term

bias back to the topside and another assault on $1.4346-$1.4368. Any higher and

the 14 month bull channel top at $1.4399 and upper 2% volatility band at $1.4425

would present the next potential brake higher. Initial support comes from

$1.4190-$1.4180, ahead of the now stronger $1.4159-$1.4151 area.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y109.88-Y110.19 The Next Resistance Barriers To Cross

*RES 4: Y110.72 76.4% Fibo of Y111.48-Y108.28

*RES 3: Y110.49 Jan 19 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y110.19/26 Jan 17 low, 61.8% Fibo of Y111.48-Y108.28

*RES 1: Y109.88 50% Fibo of Y111.48-Y108.28

*PRICE: Y109.84 @0945GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.20/25 Feb 1 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.60/62 Jan 31, Jan 29 lows

*SUP 3: Y108.35 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y108.22/27 Sep 11, Aug 29 lows

*COMMENTARY* Pushed lower last Friday, breaking below Y108.50 support, a low of

Y108.28, before recovering, aided by some heavily oversold hourly conditions.

Thursday saw a move above Y109.42-Y109.48 resistance but probably need a rally

through Y109.88-Y110.19 now, before any real upside belief in a better

correction will follow. Y109.20-Y108.60 now protects still decent support from

Y108.27-Y108.22. This safeguards against a further Y107.32 fall.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Recovery Approaches Next Y137.40-Y137.65 Resistance

*RES 4: Y138.86 1.618 swing of Y136.64-Y133.05

*RES 3: Y138.45 2% volatility band

*RES 2: Y137.65 1.618 swing of Y136.31-Y134.13

*RES 1: Y137.40 Equality rise target from Y134.13

*PRICE: Y137.17 @1000GMT

*SUP 1: Y136.64 Jan 5 high, now support

*SUP 2: Y136.29/31 Jan 25, Jan 18 highs, now support

*SUP 3: Y135.91/97 Hourly low/high Feb 1

*SUP 4: Y135.35/39 Hourly low/high Jan 31

*COMMENTARY* The break of the recent Y136.64 range top has today been followed

by a move above the upper 1% volatility band at Y137.10 and the 5 month rising

resistance line at Y137.23. This now has the potential for a higher

Y137.40-Y137.65 rise next. Through here and not much currently showing until the

2% band and swing target between Y138.45-Y138.86. Meanwhile, support from

Y136.64-Y136.29 offers near term downside protection.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Opens Higher Stg0.8805-Stg0.8816 Corrective Potential

*RES 4: Stg0.8833/38 Jan 30, 18 highs, 61.8% 0.8930-0.8687

*RES 3: Stg0.8816 Jan 29, Jan 31 highs

*RES 2: Stg0.8805 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8833-Stg0.8716

*RES 1: Stg0.8792 Intraday high

*PRICE: Stg0.8786 @1011GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8757/67 Intraday low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8738 Jan 31 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8716 Feb 1 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8687/89 Jan 25, Dec 8 lows

*COMMENTARY* The recovery to Stg0.8833 earlier in the week, fell short of higher

resistance from Stg0.8838. The latter the Jan 18 high and a 61.8% Fibo retrace

of the previous Stg0.8930-Stg0.8687 fall. The subsequent fall has been

relatively swift resulting in a challenge and slight break of pivotal 76.4% Fibo

retrace at Stg0.8721. Unable to sustain this as yet, the break back above

resistance Stg0.8760-65 is encouraging, Stg0.8805-Stg0.8816 now resistance.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Correction Continues $0.7985-$0.7957 The Next Support Zone

*RES 4: $0.8126/36 Sep 8, Jan 26 highs, 1% volatility ban

*RES 3: $0.8114/17 Jan 30, Jan 31 highs

*RES 2: $0.8080/85 Hourly congestion area Jan 29-31

*RES 1: $0.8042/55 Jan 30 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7982 @1017GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7985 Congestion area Jan 17-23

*SUP 2: $0.7957/68 Jan 23 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $0.7937/42 Jan 16, 17, 18 lows

*SUP 4: $0.7894 38.2% Fibo of $0.7502-$0.8136

*COMMENTARY* The fall from last month's $0.8136 high has gathered pace over the

last couple of days, resulting in a loss of the 8 week rising support line, at

$0.8041 by time today. This puts immediate pressure back on the downside,

beneath which $0.7985-$0.7957 becomes possible. The latter the protection

against a greater $0.7894 drop. In the interim, $0.8042-$0.8055 provides the bar

to any near term recovery process.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Decline Tests Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2435 Jan 22 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2392/00 Jan 25 high, Jan 19 low

*RES 2: $1.2355/65 Congestion area Jan 26-30

*RES 1: $1.2336/48 Hourly resistance, Jan 31 high

*PRICE: $1.2308 @1020GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2249 Jan 31 low

*SUP 2: $1.2214/20 1.618 swing of $1.2282-$1.2392, 1% vol 

*SUP 3: $1.2209 1.618 swing of $1.2355-$1.2591

*SUP 4: $1.2198 Sep 20 low

*COMMENTARY* The decline continued on Wednesday, having failed to make any

inroads into $1.2400 resistance. Last week's $1.2282 low gave way, as did the

76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2264. Eventually found a base at $1.2249, in line

with the lower 1% volatility band at the time. This protecting the downside from

a further fall towards two $1.2214-$1.2209 swing targets. Resistance meantime,

comes from $1.2336-$1.2348 and then the congested $1.2355-$1.2365 area.

GOLD TECHS: Correcting Lower After Rally Falters Ahead of $1367.3

*RES 4: $1375.4 July 2016 high

*RES 3: $1366.2/67.3 Jan 25, Aug 1 highs 

*RES 2: $1357.3 Jan 26 high

*RES 1: $1353.4 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1345.7 @1025GMT

*SUP 1: $1332.6 Jan 31 low

*SUP 2: $1327.9 Jan 10 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1324.3 Jan 18 low

*SUP 4: $1320.1 76.4% Fibo of $1305.9-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave correction. The subsequent break through

$1337.1 the next upside boost, as we made our way back through the Sep 4 high at

$1357.7. This sees $1367.3-$1375.4 as next resistance ahead of the 38.2% Fibo at

$1380.3. Support moving lower now, $1332.6-$1320.1 the potential pullback area.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]