MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pullback Holds So Far Above Key $1.2384-85 Near Term

Support

*RES 4: $1.2598 61.8% Fibo of $1.3994-$1.0340

*RES 3: $1.2538/39 Jan 25 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.2523 Feb 1 high

*RES 1: $1.2491/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2470 @0910GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2409/25 Feb 2 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2384/85 Hourly base Jan 30, Feb 1 low

*SUP 3: $1.2335 Jan 30 low

*SUP 4: $1.2323 Jan 17 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Moved gradually higher over the earlier part of last week but was

unable to trade back through $1.2523-$1.2538, needed in order to shake off the

negative signals provided by the 'Doji' candle close on the daily chart on Jan

25. Subsequently lost support from $1.2470 on Friday, allowing a $1.2409 fall so

far. The $1.2385-$1.2384 area now seen as key support. Resistance $1.2491-95 but

sustained break above $1.2538 needed before thoughts can turn higher again.

CABLE TECHS: Giving Back Ground After Failure To Break Above $1.4287

*RES 4: $1.4279/90 Feb 1 high, Jan 26 high, 1% vol band

*RES 3: $1.4234 Hourly recovery high Feb 2

*RES 2: $1.4202 Initial low Feb 2, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.4170/75 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.4145 @0917GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4082 Feb 2 low

*SUP 2: $1.4050 76.4% Fibo of $1.3980-$1.4279

*SUP 3: $1.4007 38.2% of $1.3458-$1.4346, 1% volatility band 

*SUP 4: $1.3980 Jan 30 low

*COMMENTARY* Thursday saw a challenge into the $1.4260-$1.4287 area, a high of

$1.4279. Needed to sustain a break back above $1.4287 to return near term bias

back to the topside and another assault on $1.4346-$1.4368. As a consequence, a

corrective pullback saw support from $1.4150-$1.4122 disappear. This then seeing

the potential for a deeper $1.4094-$1.4050 fall, ahead of now key trend support

at $1.4007-$1.3980. Resistance $1.4170-$1.4202, ahead of now important $1.4234.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Recovery Meets Resistance From Dual Y110.49 Resistance

*RES 4: Y111.48 Jan 18 high

*RES 3: Y110.84 Nov 27 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y110.72 76.4% Fibo of Y111.48-Y108.28

*RES 1: Y110.49 Jan 19 low, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Y109.83 @0933GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.75 Feb 1 high, now support

*SUP 2: Y109.45 Jan 31 high, now support

*SUP 3: Y109.21/23 Jan 29,30 highs, hourly base Feb 1

*SUP 4: Y108.75/80 Congestion area Jan 26-Jan 31

*COMMENTARY* Continued to make recovery gains last week following on from last

month's Y108.28 base. Friday's further rise through Y109.88-Y110.19, now opens

the way for a higher correction of recent losses from Y111.48, with

Y110.49-Y110.84 now the next upside barrier to consider. As a result, support

also climbs, a series of former highs from between Y109.75-Y109.21 now providing

a potential cushion, back below the latter would caution now.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Recovery Enters Next Y137.40-Y137.65 Resistance Area

*RES 4: Y138.86 1.618 swing of Y136.64-Y133.05

*RES 3: Y138.53 2% volatility band

*RES 2: Y137.65 1.618 swing of Y136.31-Y134.13

*RES 1: Y137.40/50 Equality rise from Y134.13, Feb 2 high

*PRICE: Y136.95 @0936GMT

*SUP 1: Y136.64 Jan 5 high, now support

*SUP 2: Y136.29/31 Jan 25, Jan 18 highs, now support

*SUP 3: Y135.91/97 Hourly low/high Feb 1

*SUP 4: Y135.35/39 Hourly low/high Jan 31

*COMMENTARY* The break of the recent Y136.64 range top was followed by a move

above the upper 1% volatility band at Y137.17 and the 5 month rising resistance

line at Y137.26. This now has the potential for a higher Y137.40-Y137.65 rise

next. Through here and not much currently showing until the 2% band and swing

target between Y138.53-Y138.86. Meanwhile, support from Y136.64-Y136.29 offers

near term downside protection.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Recovery Once Again Challenging Stg0.8837-38 Resistance

*RES 4: Stg0.8893 3 month falling resistance line

*RES 3: Stg0.8873 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8930-Stg0.8687

*RES 2: Stg0.8862 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Stg0.8837/38 Jan 30, 18 highs, 61.8% 0.8930-0.8687

*PRICE: Stg0.8827 @0955GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8790/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8780 Feb 1 high, now support

*SUP 3: Stg0.8757 Feb 2 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8743 Hourly base Feb 1

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from last week's dip to Stg0.8716 is now 100% complete

with the rally back to Stg0.8837. Has once again stalled here, principally on

the back of some overbought conditions because of that rise. While capped here,

look to Stg0.8795-Stg0.8780 to provide support and the base for a fresh attempt

higher, Stg0.8862-Stg0.8873 the next resistance higher. Loss of Stg0.8780 will

caution in the near term and suggest scope for a move back down the range.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Pullback Meets Congested Support From $0.7894-$0.7875

*RES 4: $0.8042/46 Jan 30 low, hourly high Feb 1

*RES 3: $0.8016 Hourly recovery high Feb 2

*RES 2: $0.7987 Feb 1 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7957/60 Jan 23 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7946 @1005GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7891/94 Feb 2 low, 38.2% Fibo of $0.7502-$0.8136

*SUP 2: $0.7885 76.4% Fibo of $0.7808-$0.8136

*SUP 3: $0.7875 Jan 5 high, 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $0.7808 Jan 9-Jan 10 lows

*COMMENTARY* The fall from last month's $0.8136 high has gathered pace over the

last few days, resulting in a loss of the 8 week rising support line. This puts

immediate pressure back on the downside. The further loss of $0.7957-$0.7937,

now eyes congested support between the 38.2% Fibo level at $0.7894 and the lower

2% volatility band at $0.7875 below. In the interim, $0.7960-$0.7987 provides

the bar to any near term recovery process.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Recovery Nears $1.2473-$1.2477 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2542 Jan 17 high

*RES 3: $1.2506/09 38.2% of $1.2921-$1.2249, Jan 19 high

*RES 2: $1.2473/77 76.4% Fibo of $1.2542-$1.2249, 1% vol band

*RES 1: $1.2451 Feb 2 high

*PRICE: $1.2405 @1022GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2385 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2367 Hourly base Feb 2

*SUP 3: $1.2326/36 Congestion area Jan 24-Jan 31

*SUP 4: $1.2294 Feb 1 low

*COMMENTARY* The decline reached a base of $1.2249 last week, basically having

tracked the lower 1% volatility band all week. Subsequently, Friday saw a sharp

recovery, aided by pent up oversold conditions that had developed over time. A

high of $1.2451 so far, shy of what looks stronger resistance from between the

$1.2473 Fibo retrace level and the upper 1% volatility band at $1.2477.

Meanwhile, $1.2385-$1.2367 provides support against any corrective potential.

GOLD TECHS: Correcting Lower After Rally Falters Ahead of $1367.3

*RES 4: $1366.2/67.3 Jan 25, Aug 1 highs 

*RES 3: $1357.3 Jan 26 high

*RES 2: $1351.1 Feb 1 high

*RES 1: $1342.1 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1336.2 @1025GMT

*SUP 1: $1327.9 Jan 10 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1324.3 Jan 18 low

*SUP 3: $1320.1 76.4% Fibo of $1305.9-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1316.7 38.2% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave correction. The subsequent break through

$1337.1 the next upside boost, as we made our way back through the Sep 4 high at

$1357.7. This sees $1367.3-$1375.4 as next resistance ahead of the 38.2% Fibo at

$1380.3. Support moving lower, $1327.9-$1320.1 the potential pullback area.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]