MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pullback Holds So Far Above Key $1.2384-85 Near Term

Support

*RES 4: $1.2538/39 Jan 25 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.2523 Feb 1 high

*RES 2: $1.2491 Hourly recovery high Feb 2

*RES 1: $1.2465/75 Hourly resistance, intraday high

*PRICE: $1.2417 @1630GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2384/85 Hourly base Jan 30, Feb 1 low

*SUP 2: $1.2358 1.618 swing of $1.2409-$1.2491

*SUP 3: $1.2323/35 Jan 17 high, Jan 30 low

*SUP 4: $1.2307 61.8% Fibo of $1.2165-$1.2538

*COMMENTARY* Moved gradually higher over the earlier part of last week but was

unable to trade back through $1.2523-$1.2538, in order to shake off the negative

signals provided by the 'Doji' candle close on the daily chart on Jan 25. Lost

support from $1.2470 on Friday, allowing a $1.2399 fall so far. The

$1.2385-$1.2384 area now seen as next key area. Resistance $1.2465-$1.2491 but

sustained break above $1.2538 needed before thoughts can turn higher again.

CABLE TECHS: Giving Back Ground After Failure To Break Above $1.4287

*RES 4: $1.4210 Congestion area Jan 31-Feb 2

*RES 3: $1.4175 Hourly recovery high Feb 2

*RES 2: $1.4151 Intraday high

*RES 1: $1.4082/10 Feb 2 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.4006 @1650GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3980/90 Jan 30 low, 1% volatility band 

*SUP 2: $1.3943 Jan 17 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3902 50% Fibo of $1.3458-$1.4346

*SUP 4: $1.3795/97 1.618 swing $1.3980-$1.4279, 61.8% Fibo

*COMMENTARY* Thursday saw a challenge towards 1.4287, a high of $1.4279. Needed

to sustain a break back above $1.4287 to return near term bias back to the

topside and another assault on $1.4346-$1.4368. As a consequence, a corrective

pullback saw support from $1.4150-$1.4122 disappear. This then seeing the

potential for a deeper fall towards key trend support between $1.4007-$1.3980.

Resistance $1.4082-$1.4110, above the latter now needed for near term relief.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Recovery Meets Resistance From Dual Y110.49 Resistance

*RES 4: Y111.48 Jan 18 high

*RES 3: Y110.84 Nov 27 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y110.72 76.4% Fibo of Y111.48-Y108.28

*RES 1: Y110.49 Jan 19 low, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Y110.12 @1654GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.64/80 intraday low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y109.45 Jan 31 high, now support

*SUP 3: Y109.21/23 Jan 29,30 highs, hourly base Feb 1

*SUP 4: Y108.75/80 Congestion area Jan 26-Jan 31

*COMMENTARY* Continued to make recovery gains last week following on from last

month's Y108.28 base. Friday's further rise through Y109.88-Y110.19, now opens

the way for a higher correction of recent losses from Y111.48, with

Y110.49-Y110.84 now the next upside barrier to consider. As a result, support

also climbs, a series of former highs from between Y109.75-Y109.21 now providing

a potential cushion, back below the latter would caution now.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Recovery Meets Resistance Within Y137.40-Y137.65 Target Area

*RES 4: Y138.86 1.618 swing of Y136.64-Y133.05

*RES 3: Y138.53 2% volatility band

*RES 2: Y137.65 1.618 swing of Y136.31-Y134.13

*RES 1: Y137.20/50 Hourly resistance, Feb 2 high

*PRICE: Y136.69 @1700GMT

*SUP 1: Y136.29/31 Jan 25, Jan 18 highs, now support

*SUP 2: Y135.91/97 Hourly low/high Feb 1

*SUP 3: Y135.35/39 Hourly low/high Jan 31

*SUP 4: Y134.90 Hourly congestion Jan 30

*COMMENTARY* The break of the recent Y136.64 range top was followed by a move

above the upper 1% volatility band at Y137.17 and the 5 month rising resistance

line at Y137.26. This has the potential for a higher Y137.40-Y137.65 rise next.

Through here and not much currently showing until the 2% band and swing target

between Y138.53-Y138.86. Meanwhile, support from above Y136.29 offers near term

downside protection against a deeper correction of recent gains from Y134.13.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Recovery Challenges 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level At Stg0.8873

*RES 4: Stg0.8930 Jan 12 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8900 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.9032-Stg0.8687

*RES 2: Stg0.8893 3 month falling resistance line

*RES 1: Stg0.8873 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8930-Stg0.8687

*PRICE: Stg0.8856 @1712GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8825 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8813 Intraday low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8780 Feb 1 high, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8757 Feb 2 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from last week's dip to Stg0.8716 is now more than

100% complete with the rally back through Stg0.8837. Has subsequently stalled at

the higher Stg0.8873 level, a 76.4% Fibo retrace of the most recent fall from

Stg0.8930. While capped here, look to Stg0.8825 and the day's Stg0.8813 low to

provide support against any deeper near term corrective action. Through

Stg0.8873 and look to Stg0.8893-Stg0.8900 as a next potential bar to gains.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Pullback Meets Congested Support From $0.7894-$0.7875

*RES 4: $0.8042/46 Jan 30 low, hourly high Feb 1

*RES 3: $0.8016 Hourly recovery high Feb 2

*RES 2: $0.7987 Feb 1 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7957/60 Jan 23 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7920 @1715GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7891/94 Feb 2 low, 38.2% Fibo of $0.7502-$0.8136

*SUP 2: $0.7885 76.4% Fibo of $0.7808-$0.8136

*SUP 3: $0.7875 Jan 5 high, 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $0.7808 Jan 9-Jan 10 lows

*COMMENTARY* The fall from last month's $0.8136 high has gathered pace over the

last few days, resulting in a loss of the 8 week rising support line. This puts

immediate pressure back on the downside. The further loss of $0.7957-$0.7937,

now eyes congested support between the 38.2% Fibo level at $0.7894 and the lower

2% volatility band at $0.7875 below. In the interim, $0.7960-$0.7987 provides

the bar to any near term recovery process.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2506-09 Resistance After $1.2473 Break

*RES 4: $1.2609 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.2585/91 50% of $1.2921-$1.2249, Jan 11 high

*RES 2: $1.2542 Jan 17 high

*RES 1: $1.2506/09 38.2% of $1.2921-$1.2249, Jan 19 high

*PRICE: $1.2490 @1730GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2420/30 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2398 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $1.2367 Hourly base Feb 2

*SUP 4: $1.2332/36 Feb 1 high, hourly high Jan 31, now suppt

*COMMENTARY* The decline reached a base of $1.2249 last week, basically having

tracked the lower 1% volatility band all week. Subsequently, Friday saw a sharp

recovery, aided by pent up oversold conditions that had developed over time. Has

moved through $1.2473-$1.2486 resistance today, the 76.4% Fibo retrace and upper

1% volatility band. Next up is the $1.2506-$1.2509 area. Meanwhile,

$1.2420-$1.2398 provides support against any corrective potential. 

GOLD TECHS: Correcting Lower After Rally Falters Ahead of $1367.3

*RES 4: $1366.2/67.3 Jan 25, Aug 1 highs 

*RES 3: $1357.3 Jan 26 high

*RES 2: $1351.1 Feb 1 high

*RES 1: $1342.1 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1335.5 @1734GMT

*SUP 1: $1327.9 Jan 10 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1324.3 Jan 18 low

*SUP 3: $1320.1 76.4% Fibo of $1305.9-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1316.7 38.2% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave correction. The subsequent break through

$1337.1 the next upside boost, as we made our way back through the Sep 4 high at

$1357.7. This sees $1367.3-$1375.4 as next resistance ahead of the 38.2% Fibo at

$1380.3. Support moving lower, $1327.9-$1320.1 the potential pullback area.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]