MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Holding Above Channel Base And 38.2% Fibo Retrace Level.

*RES 4: $1.2370/75 Congestion area Feb 5-Feb 7

*RES 3: $1.2335 Jan 30 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2314 Feb 6 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2298 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.2271 @1020GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2221/35 3 month bull channel proj'n, 1% vol band

*SUP 2: $1.2206 Feb 9 low

*SUP 3: $1.2162/65 38.2% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.538, Jan 17 low

*SUP 4: $1.2111 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Has found support over the last couple of days from above the 3

month bull channel base projection, at $1.2221 by time today. This and the 38.2%

Fibo retrace level at $1.2162 remain the main near term supports. While above,

look to the day's $1.2298 high for initial resistance but back above two former

lows between $1.2314-$1.2335 would provide a boost, although the congested

$1.2370-75 region can pose a further problem higher.

CABLE TECHS: Decline Still Holding Above The Lower 2% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.3988 Feb 9 high

*RES 3: $1.3935/45 Hourly congestion Feb 8-Feb 9

*RES 2: $1.3902 Hourly recovery high Feb 9

*RES 1: $1.3876/80 Intraday high, hourly base Feb 8

*PRICE: $1.3836 @1033GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3790 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3765 Feb 9 low

*SUP 3: $1.3730 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.3693 1.618 swing of $1.3836-$1.4067

*COMMENTARY* Continues to correct the most recent $ 1.3458-$1.4346 gains, the

61.8% Fibo retrace at $1.3797 giving way on Friday. A low of $1.3765 seen so

far, keeping us above the lower 2% volatility band at $1.3730 by time today and

the next swing target at $1.3693. In the interim, resistance is initially

between $1.3876-$1.3880 but any real near term progress is likely beholden to a

further $1.3902-$1.3945 break. 

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y108.03-Y108.05 The Key Support Area Today

*RES 4: Y109.79 Feb 8 high

*RES 3: Y109.56 2018 falling resistance line

*RES 2: Y109.31 Feb 9 high

*RES 1: Y108.90/00 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y108.69 @1043GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.25/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.03/05 1% volatility band, Feb 9 low

*SUP 3: Y107.32 Sep 8 low

*SUP 4: Y106.92 1.618 swing of Y108.28-Y110.48, 2% vol band

*COMMENTARY* The lower 1% volatility band came to the rescue on Friday, halting

the fall at Y108.05, after the earlier loss of the Jan 26 low at Y108.28. The

band has moved slightly lower by time today, to Y108.03. So this Y108.03-Y108.05

region is currently seen as the protection against a return to last year's

Y107.32 base and potentially the slightly lower Y106.92 region. Meanwhile,

Y108.90-Y109.31 a barrier, ahead of the 2018 falling resistance line at Y109.56.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Brief Break Of 2% Volatility Band Quickly Reversed

*RES 4: Y135.40 Congestion area Feb 6-Feb 7

*RES 3: Y134.80 Feb 8 high

*RES 2: Y134.17 Feb 9 high

*RES 1: Y133.65/70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y133.37 @1055GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.60/65 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y132.17/35 2% volatility band, hourly base Feb 9

*SUP 3: Y131.99 Feb 9 low

*SUP 4: Y131.17 Nov 17 low

*COMMENTARY* Some downside exuberance saw the lower 2% volatility band slightly

exceeded on Friday, but this was quickly rectified by subsequent the

Y131.99-Y134.17 bounce. As a result, earlier support now exists from between

Y132.65-Y132.35, ahead of the band at Y132.17 by time today. The Y132.17-Y131.99

area is now the protection to the Nov 17 low at Y131.17. Meanwhile, Y133.65-70

provides resistance to a Y134.17 return.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Congested Resistance Remains Between Stg0.8902-Stg0.8909

*RES 4: Stg0.8951 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.9032-Stg0.8867

*RES 3: Stg0.8926 Jan 12 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8902/09 1% volatility band, Feb 6 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8880 Feb 9 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8851 @1105GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8820/23 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8790/00 Hourly congestion Feb 8-9

*SUP 3: Stg0.8779 Feb 9 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8732 Feb 8 low

*COMMENTARY* The rally at the back end of last week has been curtailed by

Stg0.8880 so far, this ahead of still difficult resistance from between

Stg0.8902-Stg0.8909. This area also including the 61.8% Fibo retrace level and

the 3 month falling resistance line. Will need to sustain a break through here,

before any real confidence in the topside will follow. Support from

Stg0.8823-Stg0.8790, loss of the latter will see a return back into the range.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Pivotal $0.7875 Resistance The Clue To Near Term Direction

*RES 4: $0.7954 Feb 5 high

*RES 3: $0.7911 Feb 6 high

*RES 2: $0.7875 Hourly pivot

*RES 1: $0.7843/50 Feb 8 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7834 @1117GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7770/75 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7755/59 2% volatility band, Feb 9 low

*SUP 3: $0.7744 61.8% Fibo of $0.7502-$0.8136

*SUP 4: $0.7730/32 Dec 27, Dec 25 lows

*COMMENTARY* The decline gathered pace and exuberance over the course of last

week. A low of $0.7759 seen on Friday, slightly below the important lower 2%

volatility band but the break was only brief given the higher $$0.7820 close.

Has become extremely oversold in the near term but relies on a maintained move

back above the pivotal hourly resistance at $0.7875, before any confidence in a

correction of losses from the Year's $0.8136 high will appear.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Friday's Lower Close Sees 'Doji' Candle Close

*RES 4: $1.2717 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.2689 Feb 9 high

*RES 2: $1.2664 61.8% Fibo of $1.2921-$1.2249

*RES 1: $1.2620/30 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2561 @1130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2535/47 Hourly support, Feb 8 low

*SUP 2: $1.2491 Feb 6 low, Jan 23 high

*SUP 3: $1.2430 Hourly base Feb 5

*SUP 4: $1.2392/98 Jan 25 high, Feb 5 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery continued last week resulting in a spike high to

$1.2689 on Friday, before the lower close provided the daily chart with a

potentially bearish 'Doji' candle. Nearest resistance now seen from between

$1.2620-$1.2664 and while below the latter, the near term risk will be for some

further correction of the gains seen since the Jan 31 low at $1.2249. In this

respect. $1.2535-$1.2491 provides initial protection.

GOLD TECHS: $1308.3 Support Comes Under Pressure Last Week

*RES 4: $1346.2 Feb 6 high

*RES 3: $1337.7 Jan 29 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1332.6 Jan 31 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1327.5 Feb 2 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1320.6 @1133GMT

*SUP 1: $1307.1 Feb 8 low

*SUP 2: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 3: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Paying the price for the inability to push on through $1367.3

resistance. Has gradually given up ground since, most latterly losing support

from the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1320.1. As a consequence, focus is now on

support from around the Jan 10 low at $1308.3, this the next downside protection

against a deeper $1301.4-$1286.1 fall. Meanwhile, nearest resistance comes from

$1327.5-$1332.6.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]