MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bounces From Above 3 Month Bull Channel Base 

*RES 4: $1.2460 Congestion area Jan 31-Feb 2

*RES 3: $1.2406/09 Feb 2 low, Feb 7 high

*RES 2: $1.2370/75 Congestion area Feb 5-Feb 7

*RES 1: $1.2335 Jan 30 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2324 @0845GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2285 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.2255/60 Hourly support

*SUP 3: $1.2230/34 1% vol band, 3 month bull channel base

*SUP 4: $1.2206 Feb 9 low

*COMMENTARY* Has found support over the last couple of days from above the 3

month bull channel base projection, at $1.2234 by time today. This coupled with

the Feb 9 low at $1.2206 are the protection to the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at

$1.2162. Meanwhile, the subsequent bounce is attempting to break above $1.2335,

this would provide a boost, although the congested $1.2370-75 region can pose a

further problem higher. Nearest support now $1.2285-$1.2255.

CABLE TECHS: Decline Still Holding Above The Lower 2% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.3988 Feb 9 high

*RES 3: $1.3935/45 Hourly congestion Feb 8-Feb 9

*RES 2: $1.3902 Hourly recovery high Feb 9

*RES 1: $1.3876/80 Feb 12 high, hourly base Feb 8

*PRICE: $1.3867 @0850GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3790/96 Hourly support, Feb 12 low

*SUP 2: $1.3765 Feb 9 low

*SUP 3: $1.3705 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.3693 1.618 swing of $1.3836-$1.4067

*COMMENTARY* Continues to correct the most recent $ 1.3458-$1.4346 gains, the

61.8% Fibo retrace at $1.3797 giving way on Friday. A low of $1.3765 seen so

far, keeping us above the lower 2% volatility band at $1.3705 by time today and

the next swing target at $1.3693. In the interim, resistance is initially

between $1.3876-$1.3880 but any real near term progress is likely beholden to a

further $1.3902-$1.3945 break.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Minor Support Ahead Of Last Year's Y107.32 Low

*RES 4: Y109.31/41 Feb 9 high, 2018 falling resistance line

*RES 3: Y108.82/89 Feb 12 high, hourly recovery high Feb 9

*RES 2: Y108.46 Feb 6 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y108.05/15 Feb 9 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y107.70 @0900GMT

*SUP 1: Y107.32/50 Sep 8 low, 8 day bear channel base proj'n

*SUP 2: Y106.92 1.618 swing of Y108.28-Y110.48

*SUP 3: Y106.84 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y106.51 61.8% Fibo of Y99.00-Y118.67

*COMMENTARY* The failure to move back above Y108.90 on Monday has contributed to

a fresh bout of weakness. The loss of Y108.05 has now only minor support from

Y107.50, as protection against a return to last year's Y107.32 low. Lose here

and the swing target at Y106.92 is next ahead of the longer term 61.8% Fibo

retrace level at Y106.51. In the interim, resistance falls to Y108.05-Y108.15,

with Y108.46 then before the still important Y108.82-Y108.89 area.

EURO-YEN TECHS: 2% Volatility Band Joins Friday's Low As Key Support

*RES 4: Y134.17 Feb 9 high

*RES 3: Y133.80 Feb 12 high

*RES 2: Y133.50 Hourly congestion area Feb 12

*RES 1: Y133.05/15 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y132.72 @0912GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.35/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y131.99 Feb 9 low, 2% volatility band

*SUP 3: Y131.17 Nov 17 low

*SUP 4: Y130.87 1.618 swing of Y131.99-Y133.80

*COMMENTARY* Some downside exuberance saw the lower 2% volatility band slightly

exceeded on Friday, but this was quickly rectified by the subsequent

Y131.99-Y133.80 bounce. As a result, earlier support now exists from between

Y132.40-Y132.35, ahead of the band, which by time today, has now joined that

Y131.99 low. This remains the protection to the Nov 17 low at Y131.17.

Meanwhile, Y133.05-15 and then Y133.50 provide resistance to a Y133.80 return.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Congested Resistance Remains Between Stg0.8900-Stg0.8909

*RES 4: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8951 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.9032-Stg0.8867

*RES 2: Stg0.8920/26 % volatility band, Jan 12 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8900/09 Hourly resistance, Feb 6 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8880 @0930GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8843/55 Feb 12 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8820 Hourly recovery high Feb 8, now support

*SUP 3: Stg0.8779 Feb 9 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8732 Feb 8 low

*COMMENTARY* The rally begun at the back end of last week has been curtailed by

still difficult resistance from between Stg0.8900-Stg0.8909. This area also

including a 61.8% Fibo retrace level and the 3 month falling resistance line.

Will need to sustain a break through here, before any real confidence in the

topside will follow, Stg0.8920-26 then the bar to a Stg0.8951 rise. Support from

Stg0.8855-Stg0.8820, loss of the latter will see a return back into the range.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Pivotal $0.7875 Resistance The Clue To Near Term Direction

*RES 4: $0.7987 Feb 1 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7954 Feb 5 high

*RES 2: $0.7911 Feb 6 high

*RES 1: $0.7875 Hourly pivot

*PRICE: $0.7865 @0937GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7805/13 Hourly support, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $0.7773 Hourly base Feb 9 

*SUP 3: $0.7759 Feb 9 low

*SUP 4: $0.7740/44 2% vol band, 61.8% Fibo of $0.7502-$0.8136

*COMMENTARY* The decline gathered pace and exuberance over the course of last

week. A low of $0.7759 seen on Friday, slightly below the important lower 2%

volatility band but the break was only brief, given the higher $$0.7820 close.

Has become extremely oversold in the near term but relies on a maintained move

back above the pivotal hourly resistance at $0.7875, before any confidence in a

correction of losses from the Year's $0.8136 high will appear.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Friday's Lower Close Sees 'Doji' Candle Close

*RES 4: $1.2745 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.2689 Feb 9 high

*RES 2: $1.2664 61.8% Fibo of $1.2921-$1.2249

*RES 1: $1.2623/30 Feb 12 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2584 @0940GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2535/47 Hourly support, Feb 8 low

*SUP 2: $1.2491 Feb 6 low, Jan 23 high

*SUP 3: $1.2430 Hourly base Feb 5

*SUP 4: $1.2392/98 Jan 25 high, Feb 5 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery continued last week resulting in a spike high to

$1.2689 on Friday, before the lower close provided the daily chart with a

potentially bearish 'Doji' candle. Nearest resistance now seen from between

$1.2623-$1.2664 and while below the latter, the near term risk will be for some

further correction of the gains seen since the Jan 31 low at $1.2249. In this

respect. $1.2535-$1.2491 provides initial protection.

GOLD TECHS: Bounces After $1308.3 Support Came Under Pressure Last Week

*RES 4: $1352.5 Jan 29 high

*RES 3: $1346.2 Feb 6 high

*RES 2: $1337.7 Jan 29 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1333.7 3 week falling resistance line

*PRICE: $1328.4 @0958GMT

*SUP 1: $1318.7 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1311.2 Feb 9 low

*SUP 3: $1307.1 Feb 8 low

*SUP 4: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Paid the price for the inability to push on through $1367.3

resistance. Has gradually given up ground since, most latterly losing support

from the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1320.1. As a consequence, focus is now on

support from around the Jan 10 low at $1308.3, this the  protection against a

deeper $1301.4-$1286.1 fall. Meanwhile, resistance comes from $1333.7-$1346.2

but requires above $1352.5 before the topside is returned to favour.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]