MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovers After Enduring 76.4% Retrace Setback

*RES 4: $1.2523 Feb 1 high

*RES 3: $1.2478 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.2460/64 76.4% Fibo, 1.618 swing $1.2392-$1.2276

*RES 1: $1.2411/16 61.8% of $1.2538-$1.2206, intraday high

*PRICE: $1.2393 @1655GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2350/60 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2302 Intraday hourly base

*SUP 3: $1.2272/76 76.4% of $1.2235-$1.2392, intraday low

*SUP 4: $1.2248 3 month bull channel base projection

*COMMENTARY* Has found support over the last few days from above the 3 month

bull channel base projection, at $1.2248 by time today. This the protection

against a renewed downside push. Meanwhile, the subsequent bounce broke above

$1.2370-75 today but after initially failing below $1.2406-$1.2411 had to endure

a deep $1.2276 setback. Renewed upside appetite seen since, $1.2411-$1.2416 now

the brake to a further $1.2460-$1.2464 challenge.

CABLE TECHS: Steep Pullback Holds Above Key $1.3796 Support

*RES 4: $1.4101 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.4056/67 50% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3765, Feb 8 high

*RES 2: $1.4002 1.618 swing of $1.3925-$1.3800

*RES 1: $1.3988/96 Feb 9 high, 76.4% Fibo of $1.4067-$1.3765

*PRICE: $1.3954 @1710GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3915/25 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3865/70 Hourly congestion area Feb 13-14

*SUP 3: $1.3842 Intraday hourly basing area 

*SUP 4: $1.3796/00 Feb 12, intraday lows

*COMMENTARY* The correction of the recent $1.3458-$1.4346 gains reached $1.3765

last Friday. In the interim, the subsequent recovery surpassed initial $1.3902

resistance but further progress was halted earlier by $1.3925. The resultant

fall today was deep but held above key near term support at $1.3796. Fresh

impetus has been gained from this pullback, since surpassing $1.3925, leaving

$1.3988-$1.4002 as the next potential bar higher. Support $1.3925-$1.3865.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Decline Sees Congested Support Between Y106.65-Y106.40 Next

*RES 4: Y108.46 Feb 6 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y108.05 Feb 9 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y107.90 Intraday high

*RES 1: Y107.55/65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y107.07 @1720GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.72 Intraday low

*SUP 2: Y106.65 2% volatility band

*SUP 3: Y106.51 61.8% Fibo of Y99.00-Y118.67

*SUP 4: Y106.40 1.618 swing of Y106.84-Y107.55

*COMMENTARY* Unable to recover through Y107.65 resistance, so immediate focus

has returned to the downside. A low of Y106.72 at the time of writing, still

have decent support from between Y106.65-Y106.40 below. In the meantime,

Y107.55-65 still provides initial barrier, the day's Y107.90 high needs to be

surpassed before any thoughts can turn to a meaningful recovery. Below Y106.40

and not much currently showing until Y105.55.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Lower 2% Volatility Band Survives Pressure Again

*RES 4: Y134.56 50% Fibo of Y137.51-Y131.61

*RES 3: Y133.80/86 Feb 12 high, 38.2% of Y137.51-Y131.61

*RES 2: Y133.36 Intraday high

*RES 1: Y132.98 Intraday hourly recovery high

*PRICE: Y132.76 @1735GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.90/00 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y131.61/71 Intraday low, 2% volatility band 

*SUP 3: Y131.17 Nov 17 low

*SUP 4: Y130.87 1.618 swing of Y131.99-Y133.80

*COMMENTARY* The lower 2% volatility band at Y131.71 came under renewed pressure

again today. A low of Y131.61 posted, before the weight of some heavily oversold

hourly conditions came to the near term rescue. The subsequent lift, now has the

day's two previous Y132.98 and Y133.36 highs in the way of an even better

recovery. Meanwhile, nearest support of note now seen from the Y132.00-Y131.90

region. Back below the latter would caution again.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Overbought Near Term On Approach To Recent Range High

*RES 4: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8951 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.9032-Stg0.8867

*RES 2: Stg0.8936 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Stg0.8926 Jan 12 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8880 @1737GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8870/75 Feb 12 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8858 Feb 13 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8843 Feb 12 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8820 Initial rally high Feb 8, now support

*COMMENTARY* Continues to rise, albeit slowly ,most recently through the

previously difficult Stg0.8900-Stg0.8909 area. Now has to contend with the

previous range high and upper 1% volatility band between Stg0.8926-Stg0.8936.

Also overbought in the near term. Support comes from Stg0.8875-Stg0.8870 loss

would caution but eyes are probably on the lower Stg0.8858-Stg0.8843 area. Above

Stg0.8936 and the 76.4% Fibo retrace at Stg0.8951 next.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Recovery Needs To Negotiate $0.7890-$0.7911 Resistance

*RES 4: $0.7992 61.8% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7759

*RES 3: $0.7948/54 50% of $0.8136-$0.7759, Feb 5 high

*RES 2: $0.7903/11 38.2% of $0.8136-$0.7759, Feb 6 high

*RES 1: $0.7890 Intraday high

*PRICE: $0.7888 @1744GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7825/30 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7804 Intraday hourly base

*SUP 3: $0.7773 Intraday low

*SUP 4: $0.7759 Feb 9 low

*COMMENTARY* After flattering to deceive, with a break above pivotal $0.7875

resistance, earlier in the day, had then to endure a deep $0.7773 setback,

before once again finding the ability to rally, from above stronger

$0.7759-Stg0.7744 support. Once again $0.7890-$0.7911 resistance comes back into

the picture. Above the latter will improve chance of a higher correction of

recent losses from $0.8136. Meantime, $0.7835-$0.7804 supports.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Last Friday's Lower Close Sees 'Doji' Candle Close

*RES 4: $1.2689 Feb 9 high

*RES 3: $1.2664 61.8% Fibo of $1.2921-$1.2249

*RES 2: $1.2650 Intraday high

*RES 1: $1.2605/15 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2553 @1750GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2535 Hourly support 

*SUP 2: $1.2491 Feb 6 low, Jan 23 high

*SUP 3: $1.2430 Hourly base Feb 5

*SUP 4: $1.2392/98 Jan 25 high, Feb 5 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery continued last week resulting in a spike high to

$1.2689 on Friday, before the lower close provided the daily chart with a

potentially bearish 'Doji' candle. Nearest key resistance now seen from below

1.2664 and while this caps, the near term risk will be for some further

correction of the gains seen since the Jan 31 low at $1.2249. In this respect.

$1.2535-$1.2491 provides initial protection.

GOLD TECHS: $1352.5 Resistance Becomes Pivotal To Direction

*RES 4: $1380.3 38.2% Fibo of $1920.5-$1046.4

*RES 3: $1375.4 Jul 4 high

*RES 2: $1366.2 Jan 25 high

*RES 1: $1352.5 Jan 29 high

*PRICE: $1349.3 @1800GMT

*SUP 1: $1327.8 Feb 12 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1318.1 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $1311.2 Feb 9 low

*SUP 4: $1307.1 Feb 8 low

*COMMENTARY* Has held around support from the Jan 10 low at $1308.3, a low of

$1307.1 seen before recovering some ground. Currently correcting losses from

last month's $1366.2 high, the move above $1337.7 now seeing the chance for a

higher $1352.5 rise. The latter then becomes pivotal to direction and a break

above would allow a fresh $1366.2-$1380.3 challenge, perhaps $1402.7-$1407.7.

Meanwhile, $1327.8 and then the day's $1318.1 low provide support. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]