MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: New Highs Last Week But Retreats Without A Test To Fibo

Level

*RES 4: $1.2556 Feb 16 high

*RES 3: $1.2511 Feb 15 high

*RES 2: $1.2490 Hourly congestion Feb 15

*RES 1: $1.2460 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2412 @0955GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2380/90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2340/45 Hourly basing area Feb 13-14

*SUP 3: $1.2287 3 month bull channel base

*SUP 4: $1.2238 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* $1.2556 was enough for last week, unable to go on and test the

61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.2598. As a result, has bowed to some overbought

hourly conditions and begun a pullback and some correction of gains seen since

the $1.2206 low from Feb 9. In this respect, $1.2390-$1.2380 is the next area of

support and protection against a deeper 1.2340 setback. Meanwhile, $1.2460-90

and then $1.2511 currently stands in the way of any recovery.

CABLE TECHS: $1.4151-58 Resistance Proves Too Tough At First Attempt

*RES 4: $1.4209 76.4% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3765

*RES 3: $1.4145/56 Feb 16 high, 4 week falling res line

*RES 2: $1.4110/15 Hourly basing area Feb 16, now res'tce

*RES 1: $1.4073 Hourly high Feb 16

*PRICE: $1.4013 @1005GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3993/00 Intraday low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3960/70 Hourly low/high Feb 14

*SUP 3: $1.3921/25 Feb 13 high, hourly high Feb 14

*SUP 4: $1.3876 Feb 12 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Continued to recover, for most of last week, albeit slower than

some. Facing resistance from the Feb 5 high at $1.4151 and the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at $1.4158  could only manage a $1.4145 high, before deciding on

some correction of recent gains. In this respect and aided by some near term

overbought conditions, the $1.4000 area now provides support and protection

against a further $1.3970-$1.3921 fall. Resistance dips to $1.4073-$1.4115.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y106.89 Break Needed To Instigate Further Recovery

*RES 4: Y107.65/70 Congestion area Feb 13-14

*RES 3: Y107.17 Hourly highs Feb 14

*RES 2: Y106.89 Feb 15 high

*RES 1: Y106.66 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y106.59 @1018GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.90/00 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y105.66 2% volatility band

*SUP 3: Y105.44/55 Jan 2014, Oct 3 2016 highs, Feb 16 low

*SUP 4: Y104.86 1.618 swing of Y105.55-Y106.66

*COMMENTARY* The recovery stalled at Y106.89 last Thursday, a fresh fall then

through Y106.18 which again straddled the lower 2% volatility band, testing into

the top of the next band of support from between Y105.55-Y105.44. Always

concerned when we trade below the 2% band as this is never a long lasting

situation. Meanwhile, Y106.55-Y106.66  now provides initial resistance but back

above Y106.89 needed for anything meaningful.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Further Gains Beholden To A 132.52-132.60 Break

*RES 4: Y133.80/86 Feb 12 high, 38.2% of Y137.51-Y131.61

*RES 3: Y133.39 Feb 14 high 

*RES 2: Y133.11 Feb 16 high 

*RES 1: Y132.52/60 Feb 15 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y132.32 @1028GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.81 Feb 16 low

*SUP 2: Y131.61 Feb 14 low

*SUP 3: Y131.45 Hourly support

*SUP 4: Y131.17 Nov 17 low

*COMMENTARY* The lower 2% volatility band came under pressure last Wednesday. A

low of Y131.61, before the weight of some heavily oversold hourly conditions

came to the near term rescue. The subsequent lift faltered at Y133.39 and has

subsequently lost ground again since. Y132.52-Y132.60 and then Y133.11 now in

the way of a fresh attempt higher. Meanwhile, support from Y131.81 now protects

against a Y131.61-Y131.45 return and possibly a further Y131.17 fall.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8843-Stg0.8841 Supports Against A Deeper Correction

*RES 4: Stg0.8920/26 Feb 14, Jan 12 highs

*RES 3: Stg0.8902 Feb 15 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8890 Feb 16 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8870/75 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8853 @1040GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8841/43 Feb 16, Feb 12 lows

*SUP 2: Stg0.8820 Initial rally high Feb 8, now support

*SUP 3: Stg0.8805 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8732-Stg0.8920

*SUP 4: Stg0.8779 Feb 9 low

*COMMENTARY* Continued it's rise, albeit slowly last week, most recently through

the previously difficult Stg0.8900-Stg0.8909 area. Then unable to contend with

the previous range high at Stg0.8926, before once again giving up ground. Some

overbought conditions being rectified, with Stg0.8843-Stg0.8841 as support,

below will caution and begin a correction of gains from the month's lows.

Resistance now from Stg0.8870-Stg0.8890.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7893-$0.7890 Becomes Key Support And Clue To Direction

*RES 4: $0.8041/47 Feb 2 high, 76.4% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7759

*RES 3: $0.7987/92 Feb 1 low, 61.8% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7759

*RES 2: $0.7966 Feb 15 high

*RES 1: $0.7936/40 Intraday high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7925 @1050GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7890/93 Initial high Feb 14, Feb 15-16 lows

*SUP 2: $0.7877 Feb 13 high, now support

*SUP 3: $0.7845 Congestion area Feb 12-Feb 13 

*SUP 4: $0.7810/15 Hourly basing area Feb 9-Feb 12

*COMMENTARY* Had to endure a deep $0.7773 setback last Wednesday, before once

again finding the ability to rally, from above stronger $0.7759-Stg0.7744

support. Have subsequently seen a move back above $0.7890-$0.7911 resistance,

this improves chance s of a higher correction of recent losses from

$0.8136,beginning with $0.7987-$0.7992. Meantime, $0.7893-0.7890 supports

against any

fresh downside interest.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Oversold Near Term, $1.2566-$1.2605 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2650 Feb 14 high

*RES 3: $1.2623/25 Feb 12-Feb 13 highs

*RES 2: $1.2600/05 Congestion area Feb 12-Feb 14

*RES 1: $1.2566/68 Feb 12-Feb 13 lows, Feb 16 high

*PRICE: $1.2545 @1057GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2495/05 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2475 Hourly congestion Feb 15-16

*SUP 3: $1.2450 Feb 16 low

*SUP 4: $1.2417/24 61.8% Fibo of $1.2249-$1.2689, 1% vol band

*COMMENTARY* The recovery resulted in a spike high to $1.2689 on Feb 9, before

the lower close provided the daily chart with a potentially bearish 'Doji'

candle. The failure since to reclaim levels above 1.2650 has added fuel to the

fire, opening the way for some deeper correction of gains seen since the Jan 31

low at $1.2249, with $1.2450 and then $1.2417 the next area of interest.

$1.2566-1.2605 now nearest resistance.

GOLD TECHS: $1366.2 Now The Bar To Further Gains

*RES 4: $1402.7 1.618 swing of $1366.2-$1307.1

*RES 3: $1380.3 38.2% Fibo of $1920.5-$1046.4

*RES 2: $1375.4 Jul 4 high

*RES 1: $1366.2 Jan 25 high

*PRICE: $1348.4 @1101GMT

*SUP 1: $1344.9 Feb 16 low

*SUP 2: $1333.1 Feb 13 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1327.8 Feb 12 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1318.1 Feb 14 low

*COMMENTARY* Held around support from the Jan 10 low at $1308.3, a low of

$1307.1 seen before recovering ground. Currently reclaiming losses from last

month's $1366.2 high.  A move through the latter would allow a fresh

$1375.4-$1380.3 rise, perhaps $1402.7-$1409.8. The latter the 14 month bull

channel top projection. Meanwhile, $1344.9-$1333.1 now provides support.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]