MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2240-$1.2231 Becomes Next Key Support Area

*RES 4: $1.2422 Mar 28 high

*RES 3: $1.2385 Hourly congestion Mar 27-Mar 28 

*RES 2: $1.2336/45 Apr 3, Apr 2 highs

*RES 1: $1.2315/20 Intraday high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2300 @1503GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2231/40 76.4% Of $1.2155-$1.2477, Mar 20 low

*SUP 2: $1.2208 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.2155 Mar 1 low

*SUP 4: $1.2089/94 Jan 4 high, 1.618 swing $1.2240-$1.2477

*COMMENTARY* Continued downside pressure resulted in a low of $1.2254 on

Tuesday, as we make our way towards the next area of interest between the Mar 20

low at $1.2240 and the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2231. Will need to sustain

a break below here and then the lower 1% volatility band, at $1.2208 today,

before the risk will once again revert to Mar 1 low at $1.2155. In the meantime,

resistance $1.2315-$1.2320 but back above $1.2336-$1.2345 is needed for respite.

CABLE TECHS: Resistance From $1.4097 Continues To Rebuff Rallies

*RES 4: $1.4201/04 Mar 28 high, base broken bull channel

*RES 3: $1.4174 Hourly high Mar 27

*RES 2: $1.4134 Initial low Mar 28, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.4097 Mar 29 high

*PRICE: $1.4081 @1507GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4011/15 Mar 30 low, intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.3979/83 50% Fibo of $1.3712-$1.4245, Mar 20 low

*SUP 3: $1.3958 1.618 swing $1.4011-$1.4097, 1% vol band

*SUP 4: $1.3930 Mar 6 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Has faltered again overnight at the $1.4097 resistance level and

while this continues, the risk will once again turn to the downside. Initial

support from $1.4030 now, before again entering into the $1.4011-$1.3979 area.

Any lower and dual support from $1.3958 today, keeps pressure off

$1.3930-$1.3916. Above $1.4097 and scope to increase gains toward

$1.4134-$1.4174 but $1.4201-$1.4204 is the tougher ask higher.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Recovery Will Still Be Measured Against Y106.69 Reaction

*RES 4: Y107.91 Feb 21 high

*RES 3: Y107.30 Mar 13 high

*RES 2: Y106.98/01 1% volatility band, Mar 28 high

*RES 1: Y106.69 76.4% of Y107.01-Y105.66, hourly high Mar 29

*PRICE: Y106.52 @1511GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.90/00 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y105.66/72 Apr 2 low, 76.4% of Y105.32-Y107.01

*SUP 3: Y105.50/55 Hourly congestion Mar 27-28

*SUP 4: Y105.32 Mar 27 low

*COMMENTARY* Peaked at Y107.01 last week, just above the upper 1% volatility

band, at Y106.98 at the time. Has suffered some fallout since, Monday's dip to

Y105.66 moving slightly below the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y105.72, before

finding some support. In this respect, the move back above Y106.18-Y106.45 is

encouraging but any real attempt at a recovery will have to deal with the

tougher Y106.69 level. Nearest support now Y106.00-Y105.90.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Possible Inverse Head And Shoulders Still In The Making

*RES 4: Y132.22 38.2% Fibo of Y137.51-Y128.95

*RES 3: Y131.82/90 Mar 27 high, 1% volatility band 

*RES 2: Y131.30/39 Apr 2 high, hourly high Mar 29

*RES 1: Y131.10/15 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y130.96 @1514GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.20/23 Hourly support, intraday low

*SUP 2: Y129.88/98 1.618 swing Y130.58-Y131.71, Apr 2 low

*SUP 3: Y129.63 76.4% Fibo of Y128.95-Y131.82

*SUP 4: Y129.29 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Continued it's recovery last week to a high of Y131.82, in line

with the upper 1% volatility band at the time, after the previous week's fall to

Y128.95, just above the key Y128.90-Y128.85 support area. Became overbought in

the near term, so a pullback anticipated, which so far has reached Y129.98,

leaving the more important Y129.88-Y129.63 levels intact for the time being.

Subsequent rise now has Y131.30-Y131.39 in the way of another attempt higher.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: 'Shooting Star' Candle Close Remains A Near Term Concern

*RES 4: Stg0.8850/53 Mar 12 low, 61.8% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8668

*RES 3: Stg0.8817/35 Mar 19 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.8796/98 Mar 30, Mar 27 highs 

*RES 1: Stg0.8777 Apr 2 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8735 @1515GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8708/10 Mar 21, Mar 23 lows

*SUP 2: Stg0.8699 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8668-Stg0.8798

*SUP 3: Stg0.8659/68 1% volatility band, Mar 22 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from the failure to deal with the top of the congested

6 month trading area continued throughout last month. A sharp dip to Stg0.8668

on Mar 22 briefly breaking the base of the range at Stg0.8687, before finding

some respite. In this respect, next resistance comes from Stg0.8798-Stg0.8817

but last Tuesday's 'Shooting Star' candle close remains a near term concern.

Nearest support now ranged between Stg0.8710-Stg0.8699. 

     AUSSIE TECHS: Finds Support Within The $0.7752-$0.7741 Area

*RES 4: $0.7786 Mar 22 high

*RES 3: $0.7758/66 Mar 26 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $0.7730/35 Congestion area Mar 23-27

*RES 1: $0.7707/17 Mar 30, intraday highs

*PRICE: $0.7698 @1516GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7641 Equality fall from $0.7917 to $0.7989-$0.7713

*SUP 2: $0.7612 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $0.7602/07 7 week bear channel, swing $0.7672-$0.7786

*SUP 4: $0.7597 1.618 swing of $0.7643-$0.7717

*COMMENTARY* The triangular consolidation broke to the downside, losing support

from last month's previous $0.7672 low in the process. This saw risk revert

immediately to between the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $0.7652 and the equality

fall target at the slightly lower $0.7641 level. A low of $0.7643 actually

posted, before finding some respite. Will need a move back through $0.7707 and

the congested $0.7730-35 region however, before real upside belief will appear.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Rally Has $1.2848-$1.2863 In Way Of Further Gains

*RES 4: $1.2941/44 Mar 29, Apr 2 highs

*RES 3: $1.2906 Initial pullback low Apr 2, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2880 Minor congestion area Mar 29-Apr 2

*RES 1: $1.2848/63 Intraday high, Mar 29, 30 & Apr 2 lows 

*PRICE: $1.2824 @1519GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2775 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.2749/58 1% volatility band, Feb 22 high

*SUP 3: $1.2735 1.618 swing of $1.2815-$1.2944

*SUP 4: $1.2719 38.2% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.3125

*COMMENTARY* The consolidation seen since last week's $1.2815 base failed to

make ground back above $1.2941-$1.2944. The subsequent fall has broken down

below $1.2815-$1.2790 support. A low of $1.2775 today at the time of writing,

ahead of what looks stronger support from between $1.2758-$1.2735. As a result,

nearest resistance falls to $1.2848-$1.2863. Below $1.2735 and Fibo support at

$1.2719 is the prop against a further $1.2634 decline. 

GOLD TECHS: Consolidation Mode Continues After $1321.3 Support Holds

*RES 4: $1366.2 Jan 25 high

*RES 3: $1361.8 Feb 16 high

*RES 2: $1356.9 Mar 27 high

*RES 1: $1348.5 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1335.3 @1525GMT

*SUP 1: $1328.4 Mar 29 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1321.3 Mar 29 low

*SUP 3: $1315.3 Mar 2 low

*SUP 4: $1307.3 Mar 20 low

*COMMENTARY* Finding some support after last Thursday's dip to $1321.3, as we

continue within the recent consolidation. Now looking towards the Mar 28 high at

$1347.2 and hourly resistance from $1348.5 for next clues and the bar to a

higher $1352.7-$1356.9 rise. The former the current level of the 3 month bear

channel top, which was slightly exceeded in the latter stages of last month.

Meanwhile, initial support still comes from above the Mar 29 high at $1328.4.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]