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Free AccessMNI ASIA OPEN: Focus on November Jobs Ahead Fed Blackout
MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: Consolidation Ahead Nov Jobs Report
MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2240-$1.2231 Remains Next Key Support Area
*RES 4: $1.2422 Mar 28 high
*RES 3: $1.2385 Hourly congestion Mar 27-Mar 28
*RES 2: $1.2336 Apr 3 high
*RES 1: $1.2300/15 Hourly resistance, Apr 4 high
*PRICE: $1.2263 @0921GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2231/40 76.4% Of $1.2155-$1.2477, Mar 20 low
*SUP 2: $1.2210 1% volatility band
*SUP 3: $1.2155 Mar 1 low
*SUP 4: $1.2089/94 Jan 4 high, 1.618 swing $1.2240-$1.2477
*COMMENTARY* Failed to make any inroads into $1.2315-$1.2320 resistance
yesterday. The subsequent fall heads towards the next area of interest between
the Mar 20 low at $1.2240 and the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2231. Will need
to sustain a break below here and then the lower 1% volatility band, at $1.2210,
before the risk will once again revert to Mar 1 low at $1.2155. In the meantime,
resistance from $1.2300-$1.2315 but back above $1.2336 is needed for respite.
CABLE TECHS: Resistance From $1.4097 Continues To Rebuff Rallies
*RES 4: $1.4201 Mar 28 high
*RES 3: $1.4174 Hourly high Mar 27
*RES 2: $1.4134 Initial low Mar 28, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.4097 Mar 29, intraday highs
*PRICE: $1.4044 @0830GMT
*SUP 1: $1.4011/15 Mar 30 low, Apr 4 low
*SUP 2: $1.3979/83 50% Fibo of $1.3712-$1.4245, Mar 20 low
*SUP 3: $1.3954/58 1% vol band, 1.618 swing $1.4011-$1.4097
*SUP 4: $1.3930 Mar 6 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Has faltered again today at the $1.4097 resistance level and while
this continues, the risk will once again turn to the downside. Initial support
from $1.4030 now, before again entering into the $1.4011-$1.3979 area. Any lower
and support from $1.3958-$1.3954, keeps pressure off $1.3930-$1.3916. Above
$1.4097 and scope to increase gains toward $1.4134-$1.4174 but $1.4201 remains
the tougher ask higher.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y107.22-Y107.30 Resistance After Break Above Y106.69
*RES 4: Y108.28 Jan 26 low, 2% volatility band
*RES 3: Y108.04/11 Equality rise from Y105.66, 38.2% Fibo
*RES 2: Y107.84/91 1.618 swing Y107.01-Y105.66, Feb 21 high
*RES 1: Y107.22/30 1% volatility band, Mar 13 high
*PRICE: Y107.09 @0847GMT
*SUP 1: Y106.67/69 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y106.27 Initial recovery high Apr 4, now support
*SUP 3: Y105.99 Apr 4 low
*SUP 4: Y105.66 Apr 2 low
*COMMENTARY* Has broken through the pivotal Y106.69 resistance and now eyes the
Y107.22-Y107.30 area next. Is however facing near term overbought conditions on
the approach and a loss of Y106.67 support would open up some deeper correction,
initially of the gains seen since yesterday's Y105.99 low, with Y106.27 likely
to feature along the way. Only back below that Y105.99 low would currently spoil
upward momentum. Above Y107.30 and next targets range between Y107.84-Y108.04.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Possible Inverse Head And Shoulders Still In The Making
*RES 4: Y132.44 Mar 13 high
*RES 3: Y132.17/22 1% vol band, 38.2% Fibo of Y137.51-Y128.95
*RES 2: Y131.82 Mar 27 high
*RES 1: Y131.39/45 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y131.34 @0902GMT
*SUP 1: Y130.85/90 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y130.50 Hourly congestion Apr 3-4
*SUP 3: Y130.23 Apr 4 low
*SUP 4: Y129.98 Apr 2 low
*COMMENTARY* Continued to recover last week, a high of Y131.82, in line with the
upper 1% volatility band at the time, after the previous week's fall to Y128.95,
just above the key Y128.90-Y128.85 support area. Became overbought in the near
term, the pullback reached Y129.98, leaving the more important Y129.88-Y129.63
levels intact for the time being. Subsequent rise needs to clear Y131.39-Y131.45
for another attempt higher, Y132.17-Y132.22 above Y131.82.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: 'Shooting Star' Candle Close Remains A Near Term Concern
*RES 4: Stg0.8850/53 Mar 12 low, 61.8% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8668
*RES 3: Stg0.8817/34 Mar 19 high, 1% volatility band
*RES 2: Stg0.8796/98 Mar 30, Mar 27 highs
*RES 1: Stg0.8777 Apr 2 high
*PRICE: Stg0.8730 @0906GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8708/10 Mar 21, Mar 23 lows
*SUP 2: Stg0.8699 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8668-Stg0.8798
*SUP 3: Stg0.8659/68 1% volatility band, Mar 22 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low
*COMMENTARY* The fallout from the failure to deal with the top of the congested
6 month trading area continued throughout last month. A sharp dip to Stg0.8668
on Mar 22 briefly breaking the base of the range at Stg0.8687, before finding
some respite. In this respect, next resistance comes from Stg0.8798-Stg0.8817
but last Tuesday's 'Shooting Star' candle close remains a near term concern.
Nearest support now ranged between Stg0.8710-Stg0.8699.
AUSSIE TECHS: Rally Fazed By The Congested $0.7730-$0.7735 Region
*RES 4: $0.7804 Mar 16 high
*RES 3: $0.7786 Mar 22 high
*RES 2: $0.7758/69 Mar 26 high, 1% volatility band
*RES 1: $0.7730/35 Congestion area Mar 23-27
*PRICE: $0.7683 @0914GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7663 Apr 4 low
*SUP 2: $0.7641 Equality fall from $0.7917 to $0.7989-$0.7713
*SUP 3: $0.7615 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: $0.7603/07 7 week bear channel, swing $0.7672-$0.7786
*COMMENTARY* The triangular consolidation broke to the downside, losing support
from last month's previous $0.7672 low in the process. This saw risk revert
immediately to between the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $0.7652 and the equality
fall target at the slightly lower $0.7641 level. A low of $0.7643 actually
posted, before finding some respite. Will need a move back through the congested
$0.7730-35 region however, before real upside belief will appear.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Fresh Fall So Far Holds $1.2735-$1.2727 Support
*RES 4: $1.2901 Mar 30 high
*RES 3: $1.2860/63 Mar 29, Apr 2 lows, now resistance
*RES 2: $1.2848 Apr 4 high
*RES 1: $1.2815/25 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2774 @0929GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2727/35 1% vol band, 1.618 swing $1.2815-$1.2944
*SUP 2: $1.2719 38.2% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.3125
*SUP 3: $1.2689 Feb 9 high, now support
*SUP 4: $1.2615 Feb 26 low
*COMMENTARY* The failure to deal with $1.2848-$1.2863 resistance yesterday has
been followed by another fall. A low of $1.2746 so far, ahead of the anticipated
stronger area of support from between the swing target at $1.2735 and the lower
1% volatility band at $1.2727. In the meantime, some near term oversold
conditions are being rectified but will currently require a move back above
$1.2815-$1.2825 before fresh upside belief will appear.
GOLD TECHS: Consolidation Mode Continues, $1321.3 Support Back In Focus
*RES 4: $1361.8 Feb 16 high
*RES 3: $1356.9 Mar 27 high
*RES 2: $1348.3 Apr 4 high
*RES 1: $1342.7 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1327.7 @0938GMT
*SUP 1: $1321.3 Mar 29 low
*SUP 2: $1315.3 Mar 2 low
*SUP 3: $1307.3 Mar 20 low
*SUP 4: $1302.8 Mar 1 low
*COMMENTARY* The rally from last Thursday's dip to $1321.3, came a cropper at
$1348.3 on Wednesday, as the recent range continues to dictate proceedings. The
subsequent fall below $1328.4 once again puts the Mar 29 low at $1321.3 back in
the spotlight. Lose here and a move back into the lower half of the recent range
sees $1315.3 as next support of note and protection against a further $1307.3
decline. Back above $1342.7 is currently required to switch attention higher.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.