MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2240-$1.2231 Break Sees Focus Switch To Lower 1% Vol

Band

*RES 4: $1.2345 Apr 2 high

*RES 3: $1.2315 Apr 4 high

*RES 2: $1.2291 Intraday high

*RES 1: $1.2265/75 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2234 @1740GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2200 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $1.2155 Mar 1 low

*SUP 3: $1.2093/94 Sep 8 high, 1.618 swing $1.2240-$1.2477

*SUP 4: $1.2089 Jan 4 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Failed to make inroads into $1.2315-20 resistance yesterday. The

subsequent fall has now broken below the next area of interest between the Mar

20 low at $1.2240 and the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2231. Will need to

sustain a break below here and then the lower 1% volatility band, at $1.2200,

before the risk will once again revert to Mar 1 low at $1.2155. In the meantime,

resistance from $1.2265-$1.2291 but back above $1.2315 needed for respite.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3958-$1.3949 Support After $1.4097 Rebuffs Rallies Again

*RES 4: $1.4134 Initial low Mar 28, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.4097 Mar 29, intraday high

*RES 2: $1.4066/70 Mar 27 low, intraday hourly highs

*RES 1: $1.4015/30 Apr 4 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3991 @1752GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3958 1.618 swing of $1.4011-$1.4097

*SUP 2: $1.3949 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.3916 61.8% Fibo of $1.3712-$1.4245

*SUP 4: $1.3890 Mar 16 low

*COMMENTARY* Faltered again today at the $1.4097 resistance level and while this

continues, the risk will once again turn to the downside. Initial support from

$1.4030 and subsequently the $1.4011-$1.3979 area have given way, leaving the

swing target at $1.3958 and the lower 1% volatility band at $1.3949 to protect

against a deeper $1.3916-$1.3890 fall. As a consequence, nearest resistance

situated between $1.4015-$1.4030, back above the latter would assist.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Continues Rise Through Y107.22-Y107.30 Resistance

*RES 4: Y108.28/31 Jan 26 low, 2% volatility band  

*RES 3: Y108.04/11 Equality rise from Y105.66, 38.2% Fibo

*RES 2: Y107.84/91 1.618 swing Y107.01-Y105.66, Feb 21 high

*RES 1: Y107.49 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y107.42 @1800GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.69/75 Hourly high Apr 4, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y106.35 Hourly high/low Apr 3-4

*SUP 3: Y105.99 Apr 4 low

*SUP 4: Y105.66 Apr 2 low

*COMMENTARY* Has broken through the pivotal Y106.69 resistance and now also the

Y107.22-Y107.30 area. Is however once again facing near term overbought

conditions, ahead of a further rise to the next Y107.84-Y107.91 target zone. As

a result, nearest support moves up to Y106.75-Y106.69, although it would

currently take a loss of the lower Y106.35 to impair recent upside momentum.

Directly through Y107.91 and Y108.04-Y108.11 is anticipated next.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Possible Inverse Head And Shoulders Still In The Making

*RES 4: Y132.44 Mar 13 high

*RES 3: Y132.17/22 1% vol band, 38.2% Fibo of Y137.51-Y128.95

*RES 2: Y131.82 Mar 27 high

*RES 1: Y131.39/45 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y131.42 @1800GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.85/90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y130.50 Hourly congestion Apr 3-4

*SUP 3: Y130.23 Apr 4 low

*SUP 4: Y129.98 Apr 2 low

*COMMENTARY* Continued to recover last week, a high of Y131.82, in line with the

upper 1% volatility band at the time, after the previous week's fall to Y128.95,

just above the key Y128.90-Y128.85 support area. Became overbought in the near

term, the pullback reached Y129.98, leaving the more important Y129.88-Y129.63

levels intact for the time being. Subsequent rise needs to clear Y131.39-Y131.45

for another attempt higher, Y132.17-Y132.22 above Y131.82.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: 'Shooting Star' Candle Close Remains A Near Term Concern

*RES 4: Stg0.8850/53 Mar 12 low, 61.8% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8668

*RES 3: Stg0.8817/34 Mar 19 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.8796/98 Mar 30, Mar 27 highs 

*RES 1: Stg0.8777 Apr 2 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8741 @1803GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8708/10 Mar 21, Mar 23 lows

*SUP 2: Stg0.8699 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8668-Stg0.8798

*SUP 3: Stg0.8659/68 1% volatility band, Mar 22 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from the failure to deal with the top of the congested

6 month trading area continued throughout last month. A sharp dip to Stg0.8668

on Mar 22 briefly breaking the base of the range at Stg0.8687, before finding

some respite. In this respect, next resistance comes from Stg0.8798-Stg0.8817

but last Tuesday's 'Shooting Star' candle close remains a near term concern.

Nearest support now ranged between Stg0.8710-Stg0.8699. 

     AUSSIE TECHS: Rally Fazed By The Congested $0.7730-$0.7735 Region

*RES 4: $0.7804 Mar 16 high

*RES 3: $0.7786 Mar 22 high

*RES 2: $0.7758/69 Mar 26 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $0.7730/35 Congestion area Mar 23-27

*PRICE: $0.7682 @1805GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7663 Apr 4 low

*SUP 2: $0.7641 Equality fall from $0.7917 to $0.7989-$0.7713

*SUP 3: $0.7615 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $0.7603/07 7 week bear channel, swing $0.7672-$0.7786

*COMMENTARY* The triangular consolidation broke to the downside, losing support

from last month's previous $0.7672 low in the process. This saw risk revert

immediately to between the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $0.7652 and the equality

fall target at the slightly lower $0.7641 level. A low of $0.7643 actually

posted, before finding some respite. Will need a move back through the congested

$0.7730-35 region however, before real upside belief will appear.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Fresh Fall So Far Holds $1.2735-$1.2727 Support 

*RES 4: $1.2901 Mar 30 high

*RES 3: $1.2860/63 Mar 29, Apr 2 lows, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2848 Apr 4 high

*RES 1: $1.2815/25 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2767 @1806GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2727/35 1% vol band, 1.618 swing $1.2815-$1.2944

*SUP 2: $1.2719 38.2% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.3125

*SUP 3: $1.2689 Feb 9 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2615 Feb 26 low

*COMMENTARY* The failure to deal with $1.2848-$1.2863 resistance yesterday has

been followed by another fall. A low of $1.2746 so far, ahead of the anticipated

stronger area of support from between the swing target at $1.2735 and the lower

1% volatility band at $1.2727. In the meantime, some near term oversold

conditions are being rectified but will currently require a move back above

$1.2815-$1.2825 before fresh upside belief will appear. 

GOLD TECHS: Consolidation Mode Continues, $1321.3 Support Back In Focus

*RES 4: $1361.8 Feb 16 high

*RES 3: $1356.9 Mar 27 high

*RES 2: $1348.3 Apr 4 high

*RES 1: $1342.7 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1325.7 @1806GMT

*SUP 1: $1321.3 Mar 29 low

*SUP 2: $1315.3 Mar 2 low

*SUP 3: $1307.3 Mar 20 low

*SUP 4: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*COMMENTARY* The rally from last Thursday's dip to $1321.3, came a cropper at

$1348.3 on Wednesday, as the recent range continues to dictate proceedings. The

subsequent fall below $1328.4 once again puts the Mar 29 low at $1321.3 back in

the spotlight. Lose here and a move back into the lower half of the recent range

sees $1315.3 as next support of note and protection against a further $1307.3

decline. Back above $1342.7 is currently required to switch attention higher.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]