MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Now Enters Next $1.2377-$1.2428 Target Zone

*RES 4: $1.2477 Mar 27 high

*RES 3: $1.2422/28 Mar 28 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.2415 76.4% of $1.2477-$1.2215

*RES 1: $1.2377/87 61.8% of $1.2477-$1.2215, intraday high

*PRICE: $1.2363 @0835GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2320 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2291 Apr 6 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2261 Apr 9 low

*SUP 4: $1.2215 Apr 6 low

*COMMENTARY* Monday saw a move through $1.2291-$1.2315, followed yesterday by a

break of the next area of resistance between $1.2337-$1.2346. Today, we have

seen a challenge to Fibo resistance at $1.2377, slightly exceeded to $1.2387

before taking a step back. This could be the precursor to an assault on the

stronger $1.2415-$1.2428 area. Support moves up, $1.2320-$1.2291 now above

Monday's $1.2261 low. The latter required to hold to preserve upside momentum.

CABLE TECHS: Rally Approaches 1% Volatility Band Ahead Of $1.4245 Return

*RES 4: $1.4325 Extended base of previously broken channel

*RES 3: $1.4279 Feb 1, Feb 2 highs

*RES 2: $1.4245 Mar 26, Mar 27 highs

*RES 1: $1.4224/28 Intraday high, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: $1.4196 @0847GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4165 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.4145 Hourly pullback low Apr 10

*SUP 3: $1.4120 Apr 10 low

*SUP 4: $1.4097 Apr 5 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Today we have seen a move through the remaining 76.4% Fibo retrace

level at $1.4179, as we continue to correct recent $1.4245-$1.3966 losses. As a

result, the rally has now extended toward the next potential barrier, the upper

1% volatility band, at $1.4228 by time today. This the remaining hurdle to a

$1.4245 return. Meanwhile, support continues to rise, $1.4165-$1.4145 initially,

with Tuesday's $1.4120 level of more importance below.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Rally Stalling Below Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Y108.04/11 Equality rise from Y105.66, 38.2% Fibo

*RES 3: Y107.84/91 1.618 swing Y107.01-Y105.66, Feb 21 high

*RES 2: Y107.50/70 Apr 5 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y107.20/30 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y106.98 @0850GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.57/62 Hourly support, Apr 9 low

*SUP 2: Y106.35 Hourly high/low Apr 3-4

*SUP 3: Y105.99 Apr 4 low

*SUP 4: Y105.66 Apr 2 low

*COMMENTARY* Last week saw a break of pivotal Y106.69 resistance and then the

Y107.22-Y107.30 area. A high of Y107.50 so far, just shy of a test to the upper

1% volatility band, at Y107.70 today. These ahead of the next Y107.84-Y107.91

target zone. As a result, nearest support moves up to Y106.62-Y106.57, although

it would currently take a loss of Y106.35 to impair recent upside momentum.

Directly through Y107.91 and Y108.04-Y108.11 is anticipated next.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Challenges Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Y133.23 50% Fibo of Y137.51-Y128.95

*RES 3: Y132.96 1.618 swing of Y132.18-Y129.98

*RES 2: Y132.85 Equality rise from Y129.98 to Y128.95-Y131.82

*RES 1: Y132.58/62 1% volatility band, intraday high 

*PRICE: Y132.35 @0856GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.70/80 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y131.38 Hourly base Apr 9

*SUP 3: Y131.07/11 Apr 5, Apr 9 lows

*SUP 4: Y130.59/61 Mar 28, Mar 29 lows

*COMMENTARY* Have broken above the Mar 27 high at Y131.82, giving more credence

to the potential for an inverse head and shoulders pattern to have developed

over the last 6 weeks or so. Next up, now has to deal with the upper 1%

volatility band, which may be more problematic, at least in the near term.

Support rises to Y131.80-Y131.70 but Y131.38 currently provides the stronger

level. Above Y132.58-Y132.62 and Y132.85-Y132.96 becomes next attraction.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Trying To Cling To Support From Around Stg0.8699

*RES 4: Stg0.8817/30 Mar 19 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.8796/98 Mar 30, Mar 27 highs 

*RES 2: Stg0.8775 Hourly congestion area Mar 30-Apr 2

*RES 1: Stg0.8740/50 Hourly resistance, Apr 5-6 highs

*PRICE: Stg0.8719 @0900GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8692/99 Apr 10 low, 76.4% Stg0.8668-Stg0.8798

*SUP 2: Stg0.8668 Mar 22 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8648 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low

*COMMENTARY* The 'Shooting Star' candle close on Mar 27 is still exerting some

influence, as we continue to try to break free of Stg0.8699 support. A low of

Stg0.8692 Tuesday, a successful move lower will aim to test the resolve of

Stg0.8668 again, beneath which the lower 1% volatility band and Jun 8 low,

between Stg0.8648-Stg0.8642, protect against a deeper Stg0.8588 fall. Resistance

meanwhile from Stg0.8740-50, above will encourage but Stg0.8775 tougher higher.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Recovery Falters On Approach To $0.7775-$0.7786 Resistance

*RES 4: $0.7837/52 2 month falling res line, 2% vol band

*RES 3: $0.7812 61.8% Fibo of $0.7917-$0.7643

*RES 2: $0.7786 Mar 22 high

*RES 1: $0.7769/75 Apr 10 high, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: $0.7747 @0910GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7717/27 Hourly base Apr 10, Apr 4 high

*SUP 2: $0.7691 Hourly pullback low Apr 9

*SUP 3: $0.7670/75 Series of lows Mar 30-Apr 6

*SUP 4: $0.7641/43 Equality fall from $0.7917, Mar 29 low

*COMMENTARY* Has recovered well since last month's fall to $0.7643, just above

the equality fall target at the slightly lower $0.7641 level. Tuesday saw a high

of $0.7769, shy of a look at the upper 1% volatility band, at $0.7775 today and

the Mar 22 high at $0.7786. Has since taken a step back but while support from

between $0.7727-$0.7717 holds, then recent upward momentum remains intact. Loss

would open up $0.7691-$0.7670 below.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Tuesday's Fall Enters $1.2593-$1.2584 Support Zone

*RES 4: $1.2765/70 Congestion area Apr 5-Apr 9

*RES 3: $1.2733 Apr 6 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2710 Apr 10 high

*RES 1: $1.2665/75 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2608 @0915GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2584/93 61.8% $1.2249-$1.3125, 50% $1.2061-$1.3125

*SUP 2: $1.2517 2% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.2467 Feb 26 low

*SUP 4: $1.2450/56 Feb 16 low, 76.4% Fibo of $1.2249-$1.3125

*COMMENTARY* The prospect of a head and shoulders top has grown this week,

failure at $1.2815-$1.2820 the potential catalyst. This has subsequently seen

$1.2735-$1.2685 support give way, also the Feb 26 low at $1.2615. Sustained loss

here brings $1.2593-$1.2584 into consideration next, ahead of the lower 2%

volatility band at $1.2517 today. Resistance falls to $1.2665-$1.2675 but

Tuesday's $1.2710 high a stronger barrier above.

GOLD TECHS: $1341.3 Break Suggests Scope For Return Toward Range Top

*RES 4: $1375.4 Jul 8 2016 high

*RES 3: $1366.2 Jan 25 high

*RES 2: $1356.9 Mar 27 high

*RES 1: $1348.3 Apr 4 high

*PRICE: $1343.6 @0925GMT

*SUP 1: $1335.6 Apr 6 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1329.3 Hourly support

*SUP 3: $1327.0 Apr 9 low

*SUP 4: $1319.7 Apr 6 low

*COMMENTARY* $1315.6 support was protected by the earlier $1319.7 level last

Friday. The subsequent rise has since moved back above pivotal $1341.3

resistance. This suggests scope to once again investigate the top of the recent

range, $1348.3 now the bar to a $1356.9 return. As a result, support moves up to

$1335.6, loss would concern again, suggesting the time is not yet right for

further strength. This would see $1329.3-$1327.0 come back under pressure. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]