MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Correction Begins After Stall Ahead Of $1.2415-$1.2430 

*RES 4: $1.2477 Mar 27 high

*RES 3: $1.2430 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.2415/22 76.4% of $1.2477-$1.2215, Mar 28 high

*RES 1: $1.2360/80 Hourly resistance, intraday high

*PRICE: $1.2325 @1643GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2287/91 Apr 6 high, initial high Apr 9

*SUP 2: $1.2261 Apr 9 low

*SUP 3: $1.2215/24 Apr 6 low, 6 week bull channel base

*SUP 4: $1.2184 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Monday saw a move above $1.2291-$1.2315, followed the next day by a

break of $1.2337-$1.2346 resistance. Wednesday, we again saw a rally, this time

through the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2377. A high of $1.2397 on the day,

shy so far of an assault on the stronger $1.2415-$1.2435 area. Support from

$1.2324 has subsequently been lost and as suggested this cautions and suggests

scope for some deeper correction of gains from last Friday's $1.2215 base.

CABLE TECHS: $1.4145 Support Holds And Keeps Recent Upside Momentum Intact

*RES 4: $1.4346 Jan 25 high

*RES 3: $1.4279 Feb 1, Feb 2 highs

*RES 2: $1.4273 1.618 swing of $1.4224-$1.4145

*RES 1: $1.4245/48 Mar 26, Mar 27 highs, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: $1.4229 @1655GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4170/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.4145 Intraday low, hourly pullback low Apr 10

*SUP 3: $1.4106 Apr 6 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.4076 Hourly base Apr 6

*COMMENTARY* Having broken through the remaining 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

$1.4179, Wednesday saw the rally curtailed by the upper 1% volatility band. This

has moved by time today to join the late March highs around $1.4245. The

subsequent fall has been held at the lower end of $1.4160-$1.4145 support today,

thereby keeping recent upward momentum intact. Above $1.4245-$1.4248 and the

$1.4273-$1.4279 region can prevent a $1.4346 return. Support $1.4185-$1.4170.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y106.62-Y106.35 Support Holds And Kindles Fresh Rise

*RES 4: Y108.04/11 Equality rise from Y105.66, 38.2% Fibo

*RES 3: Y107.91 Feb 21 high

*RES 2: Y107.80/84 1% vol band, 1.618 swing Y107.01-Y105.66

*RES 1: Y107.40/50 Apr 10, Apr 5 highs

*PRICE: Y107.27 @1704GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.85/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y106.62/65 Apr 9, Apr 10, Apr 11 lows

*SUP 3: Y106.35 Hourly high/low Apr 3-4

*SUP 4: Y105.99 Apr 4 low

*COMMENTARY* After faltering at Y107.50 last week, the recovery has paused for

breath, the subsequent pullback finding support from above Y106.62. This and the

slightly lower Y106.35 level offer protection against a deeper pullback of

gains, initially from Y105.66 and potentially from the year's Y104.63 low. The

subsequent move back above Y107.20-Y107.29 renews upward enthusiasm, Y107.40-50

now the bar to fresh Y107.80-Y108.11 highs.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Challenges And Falters At Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Y133.23 50% Fibo of Y137.51-Y128.95

*RES 3: Y132.96 1.618 swing of Y132.18-Y129.98

*RES 2: Y132.85 Equality rise from Y129.98 to Y128.95-Y131.82

*RES 1: Y132.62/68 Apr 10 high, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Y132.27 @1708GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.70/81 Hourly support, intraday low

*SUP 2: Y131.38 Hourly base Apr 9

*SUP 3: Y131.07/11 Apr 5, Apr 9 lows

*SUP 4: Y130.59/61 Mar 28, Mar 29 lows

*COMMENTARY* Have broken above the Mar 27 high at Y131.82, giving more credence

to the potential for an inverse head and shoulders pattern to have developed

over the last 6 weeks or so. Next up, now has to deal with the upper 1%

volatility band, which may be more problematic, at least in the near term.

Support rises to Y131.81-Y131.70 but Y131.38 currently provides the stronger

level. Above Y132.62-Y132.68 and Y132.85-Y132.96 becomes next potential problem.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Pressure Sees Assault on Triple Stg0.8642-Stg0.8638 Support

*RES 4: Stg0.8759 Apr 4 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8740 Apr 11 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8710/20 Hourly congestion area Apr 3-Apr 11

*RES 1: Stg0.8680/92 Hourly resistance, Apr 10 low

*PRICE: Stg0.8670 @1728GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8638/39 1% vol band, 6 month bear channel base 

*SUP 3: Stg0.8603 May 24 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8588 1.618 swing of Stg0.8668-Stg0.8798

*COMMENTARY* The 'Shooting Star' candle close on Mar 27 is still exerting it's

influence, as we today break free of initial Stg0.8699-Stg0.8692 support. This

has been followed later in the day by a loss of the year's previous Stg0.8668

low. Pressure has begun on the next key region of support from

Stg0.8642-Stg0.8638. This has withstood challenges so far, resistance now

Stg0.8680-Stg0.8692 but Stg0.8710-Stg0.8720 tougher higher.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7727-$0.7717 Provides Near Term Defence Area

*RES 4: $0.7860 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $0.7833 2 month falling resistance line

*RES 2: $0.7812 61.8% Fibo of $0.7917-$0.7643

*RES 1: $0.7783/86 1% volatility band, Mar 22 high

*PRICE: $0.7757 @1731GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7717/27 Hourly base Apr 10, Apr 4 high

*SUP 2: $0.7691/07 Hourly pullback low Apr 9, Mar 30 high

*SUP 3: $0.7670/75 Series of lows Mar 30-Apr 6

*SUP 4: $0.7641/43 Equality fall from $0.7917, Mar 29 low

*COMMENTARY* Has recovered well since last month's fall to $0.7643, just above

the equality fall target at the slightly lower $0.7641 level. Wednesday saw the

rally reach $0.7773 approaching the upper 1% volatility band, at $0.7783 and the

Mar 22 high at $0.7786. Will need to sustain a move through the latter before

thoughts will turn to $0.7812-$0.7833. While support from between

$0.7727-$0.7717 holds, then recent upward momentum remains intact.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Oversold Near Term, $1.2624 Becomes Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2717 Hourly recovery high Apr 9

*RES 3: $1.2674 Initial low Apr 10, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2650 Hourly base Apr 10, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2624 Apr 11 high

*PRICE: $1.2596 @1733GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2544/60 Apr 11 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2486 2% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.2467 Feb 26 low

*SUP 4: $1.2450/56 Feb 16 low, 76.4% Fibo of $1.2249-$1.3125

*COMMENTARY* The prospect of a head and shoulders top has grown this week,

failure at $1.2815-$1.2820 the initial catalyst. This has subsequently seen

$1.2685-$1.2615 support give way, followed by $1.2593-$1.2584 on Wednesday. Has

found some support from $1.2544, below and not much ahead of an eventual test to

the lower 2% volatility band at $1.2486 today. Has become oversold near term,

resistance from $1.2624, above needed before any real respite is in sight.

GOLD TECHS: Backs Away After Return To Range Top On Wednesday

*RES 4: $1366.2 Jan 25 high

*RES 3: $1360.6 Hourly high Apr 11

*RES 2: $1353.6 Hourly high Apr 10

*RES 1: $1347.6 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1338.1 @1737GMT

*SUP 1: $1335.6 Apr 6 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1331.1 Apr 10 low

*SUP 3: $1327.0 Apr 9 low

*SUP 4: $1319.7 Apr 6 low

*COMMENTARY* $1315.6 support was protected by the earlier $1319.7 level last

Friday. The subsequent rise has since moved back above pivotal $1341.3

resistance. This suggested scope to once again investigate the top of the recent

range and indeed subsequently saw a move back toward $1366.2 on Wednesday. As a

result, overbought near term 1335.6, now provides initial support. Below $1331.1

would concern again. Resistance from $1347.6-$1360.6.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]