MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Correction So Far Holds Above $1.2291-$1.2287 Support 

*RES 4: $1.2477 Mar 27 high

*RES 3: $1.2438 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.2415/22 76.4% of $1.2477-$1.2215, Mar 28 high

*RES 1: $1.2360/80 Hourly resistance, Apr 12 high

*PRICE: $1.2358 @0753GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2287/91 Apr 6 high, initial high Apr 9

*SUP 2: $1.2261 Apr 9 low

*SUP 3: $1.2215/29 Apr 6 low, 6 week bull channel base

*SUP 4: $1.2191 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* last week saw the recovery continue, successive new highs

culminating in a $1.2397 high on Wednesday. This left us shy of a look at the

stronger $1.2415-$1.2433 area. As a consequence, some overbought conditions

arose and have so far resulted in a move back towards $1.2291-$1.2287 support.

These and the slightly lower $1.2261 level protect against a deeper correction

of gains from the Apr 6 base at $1.2215. Resistance $1.2360-$1.2380.

CABLE TECHS: Setback Holds Above Initial $1.4224-$1.4221 Support

*RES 4: $1.4417 1.618 swing of $1.4245-$1.3966

*RES 3: $1.4368 61.8% Fibo of $1.5932-$1.1838

*RES 2: $1.4338/46 Swing $1.4297-$1.4231, Jan 25 high

*RES 1: $1.4285/97 Hourly resistance, Apr 13 high

*PRICE: $1.4266 @0808GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4221/24 Apr 13 low, Apr 11 high

*SUP 2: $1.4180 Hourly congestion Apr 10-12

*SUP 3: $1.4145 Apr 12 low

*SUP 4: $1.4097 Apr 5 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Following last Thursday's hold of key $1.4145 support, we have seen

the early Feb highs and upper 1% volatility band at $1.4279, slightly exceeded.

If this can be sustained, then the next band of resistance comes from between

$1.4338 and the year's previous $1.4346 high. Higher and $1.4368 next, ahead of

the swing target at $1.4417. In the interim, a low of $1.4231 so far, with the

lower $1.4224-$1.4221 area currently of more consequence below.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Rally Stalls On Approach Congested Y107.84-Y108.11 Resistance

*RES 4: Y108.28 Jan 26 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y108.04/11 Equality rise from Y105.66, 38.2% Fibo

*RES 2: Y107.91 Feb 21 high

*RES 1: Y107.78/84 Apr 13 high,1.618 swing of Y107.01-Y105.66

*PRICE: Y107.25 @0813GMT

*SUP 1: Y107.11/15 Broken resistance line, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y106.85 Hourly congestion lows Apr 6-Apr 11

*SUP 3: Y106.62/65 Apr 9, Apr 10, Apr 11 lows

*SUP 4: Y106.12 Mar 30 low

*COMMENTARY* The Y107.40-Y107.50 area was breached Friday, then seeing an

approach to congested resistance from between the swing target at Y107.84 and

the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at Y108.11. Will need to clear the latter before

greater upside potential will follow. As a result, nearest support comes from

Y107.15-Y107.11, the latter the level of this year's broken resistance line. The

lower Y106.85 level is however currently of more importance below.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Reaches Into Initial Y132.85-Y132.96 Resistance

*RES 4: Y133.80 Feb 12 high

*RES 3: Y133.10/23 1% vol band, 50% Fibo of Y137.51-Y128.95

*RES 2: Y132.96 1.618 swing of Y132.18-Y129.98

*RES 1: Y132.85/90 Equality rise from Y129.98, Apr 13 high

*PRICE: Y132.52 @0818GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.10 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y131.81 Apr 12 low

*SUP 3: Y131.45/50 Apr 5, Apr 6 highs, now support

*SUP 4: Y131.09 Apr 6 low

*COMMENTARY* The break above the Mar 27 high at Y131.82, added more credence to

the potential for an inverse head and shoulders pattern to have developed over

the last 7 weeks. Next up, now has to deal with an equality rise target and a

swing target, between Y132.85-132.96. Above and the Y133.10-Y133.23 area, which

today includes the upper 1% volatility band, may prove more problematic. Support

rises to Y132.10 but Y131.81 currently provides the stronger level.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bear Channel Base Under Pressure, 1% Vol Band At Stg0.8616

*RES 4: Stg0.8734/40 Mar 28 low, Apr 11 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8714 Apr 3 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Stg0.8692 Apr 10 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Stg0.8668/70 Mar 22 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8660 @0822GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8616/28 1% volatility band, Apr 13 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8603 May 24 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8588 1.618 swing of Stg0.8668-Stg0.8798

*SUP 4: Stg0.8547 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8313-Stg0.9306

*COMMENTARY* The 'Shooting Star' candle close on Mar 27 is still exerting it's

influence, as last week we broke below the year's previous Stg0.8668 low and

also slightly beneath the 6 month bear channel base projection at Stg0.8638. A

low of Stg0.8628 so far, just above the next significant marker, the lower 1%

volatility band at Stg0.8616. Meanwhile, resistance falls to

Stg0.8668-Stg0.8670, above would allow Stg0.8692-Stg0.8714 respite.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Rally Falters Within Next $0.7805-$0.7812 Target Zone

*RES 4: $0.7857 Mar 14 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7825 2 month falling resistance line

*RES 2: $0.7812 61.8% Fibo of $0.7917-$0.7643

*RES 1: $0.7805/10 1% volatility band, Apr 13 high

*PRICE: $0.7772 @0828GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7750/55 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7738/39 Apr 11, Apr 12 lows

*SUP 3: $0.7727 Apr 4 high, now support

*SUP 4: $0.7707 Mar 30 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Continued to recover since last month's fall to $0.7643, just above

the equality fall target at the slightly lower $0.7641 level. After incremental

highs over the course of last week, Friday saw a challenge to the upper 1%

volatility band and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level between $0.7805-$0.7812. These

ahead of the 2 month falling resistance at $0.7825. Support from

$0.7755-$0.7738, with the latter to remain intact, if gains are to continue.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2624 Remains The Bar To Any Recovery Prospects

*RES 4: $1.2717 Hourly recovery high Apr 9

*RES 3: $1.2674 Initial low Apr 10, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2650 Hourly base Apr 10, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2624 Apr 11 high

*PRICE: $1.2609 @0840GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2544/52 Apr 11 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $1.2467 61.8% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.3125

*SUP 3: $1.2456 76.4% Fibo of $1.2249-$1.3125

*SUP 4: $1.2450 Feb 16 low

*COMMENTARY* The prospect of a head and shoulders top grew last week, failure at

$1.2815-$1.2820 the initial catalyst. This has subsequently seen $1.2685-$1.2615

support give way, followed by $1.2593-$1.2584 on Wednesday. A low of  $1.2544 so

far, below and not much ahead of an eventual test to Fibo supports between

$1.2467-$1.2456 and then the Feb 16 low at $1.2450. Resistance from $1.2624,

above would help and allow some better correction of recent losses.

GOLD TECHS: Backs Away After Return To Range Top Last Wednesday

*RES 4: $1366.2 Jan 25 high

*RES 3: $1360.6 Hourly high Apr 11

*RES 2: $1353.6 Hourly high Apr 10

*RES 1: $1348.8 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1345.6 @0845GMT

*SUP 1: $1331.1 Apr 10 low

*SUP 2: $1327.0 Apr 9 low

*SUP 3: $1325.4 5 week rising support line

*SUP 4: $1319.7 Apr 6 low

*COMMENTARY* $1315.6 support was protected by the $1319.7 level earlier in the

month. The subsequent rise moved back above pivotal $1341.3 resistance. This

suggested scope to once again investigate the top of the recent range and indeed

subsequently saw a move back toward $1366.2 last Wednesday. As a result,

overbought near term, a low of 1332.8 since. Back below $1331.1 would concern

again and pressure the rising support line. Resistance between $1348.8-$1360.6.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]