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Quadruple Witching day

RUSSIA

OFZs Slide W/W as Investors Favour USD Bonds

AUD

Aussie is on the front foot

By Les Castell
     
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pullback Within Sight Of Recent Range Base
*RES 4: $1.2329/36 Apr 19, Apr 17 lows, now resistance
*RES 3: $1.2299/00 Apr 12 low, Apr 20 recovery high
*RES 2: $1.2270/75 Hourly congestion area Apr 20-23
*RES 1: $1.2230/43 Hourly resistance, base broken channel
*PRICE: $1.2194 @0808GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.2185 1% volatility band 
*SUP 2: $1.2153/55 Equality fall from $1.2415, Mar 1 low
*SUP 3: $1.2091/93 1.618 swing $1.2215-$1.2415, Sep 8 high
*SUP 4: $1.2073 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Monday saw the fall continue back within the recent range, above
the Mar 1 low at $1.2155. The slide was exacerbated by the loss of the 8 week
bull channel base, which is at $1.2243 today. A low of $1.2182 challenging the
lower 1% volatility band. This is what stands ahead of a $1.2155-$1.2153 return.
Resistance from $1.2230-$1.2243, above would help but $1.2270-$1.2275 is tough
higher. Lose $1.2153 and not much to stop $1.2093-$1.2091.
     
CABLE TECHS: $1.3890-$1.3864 Next Real Supports Of Note
*RES 4: $1.4088/98 Apr 20 high, broken 9 week bull channel
*RES 3: $1.4031 Apr 23 high
*RES 2: $1.3993/04 Apr 20 low, lower 1% volatility band
*RES 1: $1.3965/75 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3929 @0825GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3918 Intraday low
*SUP 2: $1.3890 Mar 16 low
*SUP 3: $1.3864/69 2% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of $1.3712-$1.4377
*SUP 4: $1.3782 Mar 8 low
*COMMENTARY* Successive daily falls since peaking at $1.4377 last week saw
support from the 9 week bull channel and the lower 1% volatility band eroded,
these at $1.4098 and $1.4004 by time today. Downside risk will continue while
rallies are held below here. Today has seen minor $1.3930 support give way, this
the protection against a further $1.3890-$1.3864 fall. Nearest resistance
currently $1.3965-$1.3993, above and look $1.4004-$1.4031 next.
     
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Rally Approaches Next Y109.05-Y109.19 Resistance
*RES 4: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63
*RES 3: Y109.75/79 2% volatility band, Feb 8 high, 
*RES 2: Y109.51 1.618 projection target from Y105.66
*RES 1: Y109.05/19 Hourly resistance, 50% of Y113.75-Y104.63
*PRICE: Y108.83 @0835GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.40/45 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y108.13 Hourly base Apr 23
*SUP 3: Y107.86/89 Hourly high and Apr 20 high, now support
*SUP 4: Y107.78 Apr 13 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Has extended through the upper end of congested Y108.34-Y108.44
resistance, leaving the way clear for a run at Y109.05 and the 50% Fibo retrace
level at Y109.19 next. In the interim, support also on the rise, initially from
above Y108.45-Y108.40, loss would caution and suggest scope to see a deeper
correction of the steep gains seen since the Apr 17 low at Y106.88. Directly
through Y109.19 and the projection target at Y109.51, then Y109.75-Y109.79.
     
EURO-YEN TECHS: Range Trading Persists Beneath Y133.09-Y133.23 Resistance
*RES 4: Y133.80/87 Feb 12 high, 1% volatility band
*RES 3: Y133.23 50% Fibo of Y137.51-Y128.95
*RES 2: Y133.09 Apr 19 high
*RES 1: Y132.98 Apr 20 high
*PRICE: Y132.69 @0846GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.40/50 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y132.25 Hourly congestion Apr 20-23
*SUP 3: Y132.04/11 Apr 20, Apr 17 lows
*SUP 4: Y131.81 Apr 12 low
*COMMENTARY* Has become embroiled in congested trading between the Apr 20 low at
Y132.04 and the Apr 19 high at Y133.09. Will need a move out of here, before
direction becomes clear. The latest rally has again failed around Y132.98,
leaving support from between Y132.50-Y132.25 below. Above Y133.09 and still have
the 50% Fibo retrace at Y133.23 to surmount, before a higher Y133.80-Y133.87
rise. Lose Y132.04 however and Y131.81 is the brake to deeper fall.
     
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Recovery Faltering Below Familiar Resistance
*RES 4: Stg0.8882 2% volatility band
*RES 3: Stg0.8835 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620
*RES 2: Stg0.8798 Mar 27 high
*RES 1: Stg0.8794/95 50% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, 1% vol band
*PRICE: Stg0.8749 @0850GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8725/30 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8706 Initial rally high Apr 19, now support
*SUP 3: Stg0.8689 Apr 19 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.8661 Apr 17 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Unable to sustain a break below the 6 month bear channel earlier in
the month, a brief dip to Stg0.8620 was held by the lower 1% volatility band at
the time. The subsequent rise, has now broken back above Stg0.8753-Stg0.8759
resistance but this again sees the Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798 region as potential
trouble and threat to extending gains back up the channel. Support moves up to
Stg0.8730-Stg0.8725, with Stg0.8706 more important below.
     
AUSSIE TECHS: Fall Enters Anticipated $0.7583-$0.7565 Support Area
*RES 4: $0.7719 Apr 19 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7683 Apr 23 high
*RES 2: $0.7655/59 Apr 20 low, hourly base Apr 20
*RES 1: $0.7630/35 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $0.7609 @0900GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.7567/77 2% volatility band, intraday low
*SUP 2: $0.7561 10 week bear channel base projection
*SUP 3: $0.7539 Equality fall from $0.7813 to $0.7917-$0.7643
*SUP 4: $0.7502 Dec 8 low
*COMMENTARY* Have seen a move into the anticipated $0.7583-$0.7565 support area,
which can be extended slightly to $0.7561 today, to encompass the base of the 10
week bear channel. Any lower and have to allow for the equality fall target at
$0.7539, which in turn protects the most recent outstanding low from Dec 8 at
$0.7502. That said, is currently oversold near term, looking at $0.7630-$0.7635
for resistance, $.7655-$0.7659 higher but $0.7683 is the likely key marker.
     
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2805-$1.2775 Forms Key Near Term Support
*RES 4: $1.2941/44 Mar 29, Apr 2 highs
*RES 3: $1.2916 2% volatility band
*RES 2: $1.2897 61.8% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2528
*RES 1: $1.2862 Intraday high
*PRICE: $1.2830 @0911GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2795/05 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2775 Hourly base Apr 23
*SUP 3: $1.2718/25 Hourly basing area Apr 20
*SUP 4: $1.2676/86 Apr 19 high, initial rally high Apr 20
*COMMENTARY* The rally has extended through the potentially troublesome
$1.2846-$1.2848 region, a high of $1.2862 seen so far, before becoming
overbought in the near term. As a consequence, looking to $1.2805-$1.2775 to
form support, if a further rise is to happen at this juncture. If so, then look
to the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.2897 next, ahead of the 2% volatility band
at $1.2916. Loss of $1.2775 will open up a correction of gains from $1.2528.
     
GOLD TECHS: $1319.7-$1317.6 Support As 8 Week Bull Channel Base Gives Way
*RES 4: $1350.6 Apr 9 high
*RES 3: $1345.8 Apr 20 high
*RES 2: $1335.8 Apr 23 high
*RES 1: $1331.0 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1327.3 @0914GMT
*SUP 1: $1319.7 Apr 6 low
*SUP 2: $1317.6 76.4% Fibo of $1302.8-$1365.4
*SUP 3: $1307.3 Mar 20 low
*SUP 4: $1302.8 Mar 1 low
*COMMENTARY* Monday saw a break below the 8 week bull channel at $1331.0 today,
following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2 high
earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1326.7,
opens the way for a continued $1319.7-$1317.6 fall. The latter keeping us away
from a move back towards the year's $1302.2 low. In the meantime, that $1331.0
and then Monday's $1335.8 high provide initial resistance.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]