MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Challenges Equality Rise Target

*RES 4: $1.1925 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.1910 38.2% Fibo of $1.2556-$1.1510

*RES 2: $1.1881 76.4% Fibo of $1.1996-$1.1510

*RES 1: $1.1832/38 Equality rise from $1.1617, intraday high

*PRICE: $1.1819 @0815GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1785/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1760 Hourly basing area Jun 6

*SUP 3: $1.1745 Jun 4 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.1725 May 31 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* The recovery has extended again today, moving through

$1.1802-$1.1810 resistance and then slightly above the equality rise target at

$1.1832. Some near term overbought conditions emerging around here, so look for

support from between $1.1795-$1.1760. Only below the latter will damage recent

upside momentum and call for a deeper setback. A sustained move above $1.1832

and two Fibo retraces between $1.1881-$1.1910 become the next attraction.

CABLE TECHS: Rally Tests Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.3570 May 17 high

*RES 3: $1.3520 76.4% Fibo of $1.3618-$1.3204

*RES 2: $1.3481/87 23.6% Fibo of $1.4377-$1.3204, May 4 low

*RES 1: $1.3474 1% volatility band

*PRICE: $1.3456 @0830GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3415/25 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3397/99 Jun 4 high, Jun 6 low

*SUP 3: $1.3362 Jun 1 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.3333 Initial rally high Jun 5, now support

*COMMENTARY* Rally has moved through $1.3440-$1.3465 resistance today, coming to

rest at the upper 1% volatility band and just below the next levels of note

between $1.3481-$1.3487. Some near term overbought conditions are in need of

some correction, so look for support initially from above $1.3425-$1.3415. Only

back below $1.3397 will concern at present. Maintained break above $1.3487 will

test the resolve of the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3520 next.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Rally Reaches Toward Next Y110.34-Y110.62 Target Zone

*RES 4: Y111.08 May 18 high

*RES 3: Y110.62 76.4% Fibo of Y111.40-Y108.11

*RES 2: Y110.47 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y110.27/34 Jun 6 high, 1.618 swing of Y110.01-Y109.47

*PRICE: Y109.94 @0835GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.65/75 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y109.37/47 Jun 4, Jun 5 lows

*SUP 3: Y109.08 May 30 high, now support

*SUP 4: Y108.55 Hourly basing area May 30-31

*COMMENTARY* The recovery has now stretched above Y109.75-Y109.83 resistance,

moving slightly through the next Fibo retrace of note, the 61.8% at Y110.14 and

towards next Y110.34-Y110.62 targets. Close to overbought again in the near

term, so eyes are on Y109.75-Y109.37 support. A loss of the latter would

caution, putting pressure back on the May 30 high at Y109.08. Upside momentum

would take a hit on a move below here, Y108.55-Y108.39 then next support lower.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y130.15-Y130.52 Can Provide The Next Upside Target Zone

*RES 4: Y131.38 May 14 high

*RES 3: Y131.06 50% Fibo of Y137.51-Y124.62

*RES 2: Y130.52 2% volatility band

*RES 1: Y130.15/25 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y129.94 @0855GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.42/50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y128.96 Initial high Jun 6, now support

*SUP 3: Y128.70 Jun 4 high, now support

*SUP 4: Y128.30/35 Hourly congestion area Jun 4-Jun 5

*COMMENTARY* The recovery has been relentless, following last week's exhaustion

spike to the base of the 4 month bear channel. Now the rally moves through the

76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y129.78, some minor Y130.15-Y130.25 resistance in

the way of a look at the upper 2% volatility band at Y130.52 and perhaps

Y131.06. Meanwhile, Y129.50-Y129.42 provides support, loss of the latter would

dent recent upside momentum and suggest some deeper correction is due.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8726-Stg0.8724 Support Has Held Recent Setbacks

*RES 4: Stg0.8886 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620

*RES 3: Stg0.8842/44 May 4 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.8809/10 Jun 1, May 8 highs

*RES 1: Stg0.8790/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8779 @0905GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8724/26 Jun 5, Jun 1 lows

*SUP 2: Stg0.8697 May 29 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8673/81 76.4% Stg0.8620-Stg0.8842, Apr 26 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8664 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The game of snakes and ladders continues, the Stg0.8810-Stg0.8697

range having been fully exploited over the last week or so, most latterly

failing at Stg0.8809. This basically a 76.4% Fibo retrace of the

Stg0.8842-Stg0.8697 fall, seen since the beginning of May. Will need through

here, before the chance of a Stg0.8842-Stg0.8844 return. Support within the

range at Stg0.8726-Stg0.8724, has dealt with recent setbacks.

AUSSIE TECHS: Recovery Struggling To Maintain A Break Above $0.7666

*RES 4: $0.7739 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $0.7718 76.4% Fibo of $0.7813-$0.7412

*RES 2: $0.7689 38.2% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7412

*RES 1: $0.7677 Jun 6 high

*PRICE: $0.7652 @0913GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7615/21 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7594/95 May 31 high, Jun 5 low

*SUP 3: $0.7570 Hourly congestion area May 30-31

*SUP 4: $0.7553 May 31 low

*COMMENTARY* Has broken above the 2018 falling resistance at $0.7621-$0.7618,

depending on whether you look at the daily or weekly chart. But so far finding

it a struggle to deal with resistance from the upper 1% volatility band and the

base of the previously broken 30 month support line at $0.7666. Maintained

clearance here will encourage, $0.7689-$0.7718 next. Support currently from

$0.7621-$0.7615 but more importantly from $0.7595-$0.7594.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Correcting Recent $1.3067-$1.2858 Drop

*RES 4: $1.3064/67 2 1/2 year falling res line, Jun 5 high

*RES 3: $1.3018 76.4% Fibo of $1.3067-$1.2858

*RES 2: $1.2987 61.8% Fibo of $1.3067-$1.2858

*RES 1: $1.2963 50% Fibo of $1.3067-$1.2858

*PRICE: $1.2952 @0923GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2885/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2858/61 Jun 6 low, 38.2% Fibo of $1.2528-$1.3067

*SUP 3: $1.2809/18 76.4% of $1.2729-$1.3067, May 31 low

*SUP 4: $1.2797 50% Fibo of $1.2528-$1.3067

*COMMENTARY* Reached $1.3067 on Tuesday, basically a test to the 2 1/2 year

resistance line. Subsequently fell foul of some overbought conditions and have

seen a decent pullback, which found support from $1.2858 on Wednesday, just

below the 38.2% Fibo support at $1.2861. The following rally corrects that drop,

having so far reached the 50% retrace level at $1.2963, above and

$1.2987-$1.3018 possible. Back below $1.2885 would caution again.

GOLD TECHS: $1302.8-$1307.9 Still Providing Near Term Resistance

*RES 4: $1326.0 May 11 high

*RES 3: $1314.9 May 15 high

*RES 2: $1307.9 May 25 high

*RES 1: $1302.8 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1298.4 @0927GMT

*SUP 1: $1287.8 May 23 low

*SUP 2: $1282.2 May 21 low

*SUP 3: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1266.3 1.618 swing of $1282.2-$1307.9

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month which

raised some concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the

December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's

$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. If this can be sustained, then there is not much to stop

an eventual $1267.2 fall. In the meantime, still having trouble with

$1302.8-$1307.9 resistance, so eyes back on $1287.8-$1282.2 support.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]