MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Failure To Cope With $1.1810 Resistance A Concern Here

*RES 4: $1.1910 1.618 swing of $1.1840-$1.1727, 38.2% Fibo

*RES 3: $1.1881 76.4% Fibo of $1.1996-$1.1510

*RES 2: $1.1840/59 Jun 7 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.1800/09 Hourly resistance, Jun 12 high

*PRICE: $1.1737 @0810GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1725/27 May 31 high, Jun 8 low

*SUP 2: $1.1695 Hourly congestion Jun 4-Jun 5

*SUP 3: $1.1653 Jun 5 low

*SUP 4: $1.1617 Jun 1 low

*COMMENTARY* A small consolidation currently playing out above $1.1725 support,

following the failure to deal with $1.1810 on Tuesday. Above and still has last

Thursday's $1.1840 high and the upper 1% volatility band at $1.1859 to deal with

to remove the bearish overtones from last Thursday's 'Shooting Star' candle

close and allow a higher $1.1881-$1.1910 rise. Below $1.1725 and pullback has

$1.1695-$1.1653 as protection against a greater $1.1636-$1.1588 fall.

CABLE TECHS: Continued Fall Nears $1.3307-$1.3291 Support

*RES 4: $1.3481/87 23.6% $1.4377-$1.3204, May 4 low

*RES 3: $1.3442/43 Jun 11, Jun 6 highs

*RES 2: $1.3400 Hourly highs Jun 11-12

*RES 1: $1.3365/75 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3333 @0825GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3307/10 61.8% of $1.3204-$1.3473, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3291/95 1.618 swing $1.3342-$1.3425, Jun 1 high

*SUP 3: $1.3254/67 Jun 1 low, 76.4% of $1.3204-$1.3473

*SUP 4: $1.3236 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Rally was capped at $1.3473 and by the upper 1% volatility band

last Thursday. Some overbought conditions then in need of correction and the

subsequent move back below $1.3390 raised further concerns, as did the

appearance of a 'Doji' candle at last Thursday's close. The failure to move back

through $1.3425-$1.3443 on Tuesday also a worry, now looking to $1.3307-$1.3291

for next clues as to direction. Resistance $1.3365-$1.3400.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:   Recovery Clears Y110.62, Sees Y110.93-Y111.08 As Next

Targets

*RES 4: Y111.60 76.4% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*RES 3: Y111.36/40 Equality rise from Y109.20, May 21 high

*RES 2: Y111.01/08 1% volatility band, May 18 high

*RES 1: Y110.93 1.618 swing of Y110.27-Y109.20

*PRICE: Y110.67 @0839GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.25 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y110.07/10 Hourly high Jun 11, Jun 12 low

*SUP 3: Y109.85 Hourly base Jun 11

*SUP 4: Y109.55/60 Hourly highs Jun 8, now support

*COMMENTARY* Following last Wednesday's rally to Y110.27, the subsequent

pullback aided by some overbought hourly conditions, came to rest at Y109.20, a

50% Fibo retrace of the preceding rally from Y108.11. The following recovery

having moved back through Y110.05-Y110.27 on Tuesday, has today cleared the

76.4% Fibo retrace at Y110.62. Not much now until Y110.93-Y111.08 with

Y111.36-Y111.40 stronger above. Support Y110.25-Y110.07, loss would caution.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y130.28 Caps The Rally Again On Tuesday

*RES 4: Y131.38 May 14 high

*RES 3: Y131.15 5 month falling resistance line

*RES 2: Y131.06 50% Fibo of Y137.51-Y124.62 

*RES 1: Y130.28 Jun 7, Jun 12 highs

*PRICE: Y129.94 @0847GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.43/51 Hourly support, Jun 12 low

*SUP 2: Y128.94/95 Previous highs Jun 8, now support

*SUP 3: Y128.60 Hourly base Jun 8

*SUP 4: Y128.11/12 Jun 8 low, 38.2% Fibo of Y124.62-Y130.28

*COMMENTARY* Friday's pullback halted by the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at

Y128.12. The following recovery back through Y129.75 encouraged and again

challenged last Thursday's Y130.28 high. A clear break through here does not see

much resistance until the 50% Fibo retrace level at Y131.06 and the 5 month

resistance line at Y131.14, on a weekly basis. Support Y129.51-Y129.43 loss

would caution but Y128.94 still more important below.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Recovery Still Beholden To A Stg0.8837-Stg0.8842 Break

*RES 4: Stg0.8867 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.8837/42 Jun 7, May 4 highs

*RES 2: Stg0.8832 Jun 11-12 highs

*RES 1: Stg0.8820 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8817 @0852GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8770/80 Jun 12 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8750/59 Initial rally high Jun 5, Jun 8 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8724/26 Jun 5, Jun 1 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8697 May 29 low

*COMMENTARY* Found the ability to move through Stg0.8810 last Thursday but has

once again faltered on the approach to the next resistance of note between

Stg0.8837-Stg0.8842. The subsequent pullback from there has been relatively

swift, with Stg0.8790-Stg0.8780 giving way and allowing a dip to Stg0.8759,

within the more familiar range above the recent Stg0.8726-Stg0.8724 lows. Near

term Stg0.8780-Stg0.8770 provides support and Stg0.8820-Stg0.8832 resistance.

AUSSIE TECHS: Reaction To $0.7553 To Give Next Directional Clues

*RES 4: $0.7680/89 1% vol band, 38.2% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7412

*RES 3: $0.7673/77 Base broken bull channel, Jun 6 high

*RES 2: $0.7644 Initial pullback low Jun 7, now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7624/29 Jun 12 high, hourly high Jun 7

*PRICE: $0.7578 @0903GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7553 May 31 low

*SUP 2: $0.7523/28 76.4% $0.7476-$0.7677, 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $0.7513/14 61.8% of $0.7412-$0.7677, Jun 1 low

*SUP 4: $0.7475/76 76.4% of $0.7412-$0.7677, Jun 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Unable to deal with resistance from the upper 1% volatility band

and the base of the previously broken 30 month support line last week. Squeezed

a high of $0.7677 on Thursday but the resultant fall has been swift moving back

below $0.7615-$0.7594 support. Now looking to $0.7553 for next directional

clues. Nearest resistance $0.7624-$0.7629 but back above $0.7644-$0.7650 would

improve recovery hopes again.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Focus Again Returns To $1.3064-$1.3067 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.3199 Equality rise from $1.2729 to $1.2528-$1.2998

*RES 3: $1.3116/25 1.618 swing $1.3042-$1.2922, Mar 19 high

*RES 2: $1.3100 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.3064/67 2 1/2 year falling res line, Jun 5 high

*PRICE: $1.3033 @0918GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2995 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2976/79 Hourly base Jun 11, Jun 12 low

*SUP 3: $1.2910/22 2 week rising support line, Jun 8 low

*SUP 4: $1.2858/61 Jun 6 low, 38.2% Fibo of $1.2528-$1.3067

*COMMENTARY* Reached $1.3067 last Tuesday, a test to the 2 1/2 year resistance

line. The subsequent pullback found support from $1.2858, just below the 38.2%

Fibo support at $1.2861. The following rally corrects that drop, the move back

above $1.3018 bringing $1.3067 back into focus again. Any higher and

$1.3100-$1.3125 becomes next target ahead of the equality rise at $1.3199.

Support $1.2995-$1.2976 but $1.2922-$1.2910 stronger below.

GOLD TECHS: $1303.5-$1307.9 Still Providing Near Term Resistance

*RES 4: $1326.0 May 11 high

*RES 3: $1314.9 May 15 high

*RES 2: $1307.9 May 25 high

*RES 1: $1303.5 Jun 7 high

*PRICE: $1294.5 @0920GMT

*SUP 1: $1287.8 May 23 low

*SUP 2: $1282.2 May 21 low

*SUP 3: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1266.3 1.618 swing of $1282.2-$1307.9

*COMMENTARY* Lost support briefly from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month

which raised some concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the

December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's

$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. If this can be sustained, then there is not much to stop

an eventual $1267.2 fall. In the meantime, still having trouble with

$1303.5-$1307.9 resistance, so eyes back on $1287.8-$1282.2 support.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]