MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Consolidation Range Continues After $1.1725 Holds The Fall

*RES 4: $1.1936 Underside broken daily bear channel

*RES 3: $1.1910 1.618 swing of $1.1840-$1.1725, 38.2% Fibo

*RES 2: $1.1877/81 1% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of $1.1996-$1.1510

*RES 1: $1.1821/40 Jun 11, Jun 7 highs

*PRICE: $1.1818 @0810GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1750/60 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1725 Jun 13 low

*SUP 3: $1.1676 May 30 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.1636 61.8% Fibo of $1.1510-$1.1840

*COMMENTARY* The consolidation played out in full on Wednesday with the late dip

to $1.1725 before recovering swiftly. Now trying to escape $1.1821 resistance in

order to retest $1.1840 again. Will need above here to remove the bearish

overtones from last Thursday's 'Shooting Star' candle close and allow a higher

$1.1881-$1.1910 rise next. Support from above $.1750 and then that $1.1725. Loss

would open the way for a greater $1.1636-$1.1588 fall.

CABLE TECHS: Recovery Has $1.3442-$1.3443 In Way Of A $1.3473 Return

*RES 4: $1.3576 1.618 swing of $1.3473-$1.3307

*RES 3: $1.3520 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.3481/87 23.6% of $1.4377-$1.3204, May 4 low

*RES 1: $1.3442/43 Jun 11, Jun 6 highs

*PRICE: $1.3430 @0835GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3340/60 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3307/18 61.8% $1.3204-$1.3473, hourly low Jun 13

*SUP 3: $1.3291/95 1.618 swing $1.3342-$1.3425, Jun 1 high

*SUP 4: $1.3254/67 Jun 1 low, 76.4% of $1.3204-$1.3473

*COMMENTARY* Fall was held by the 61.8% Fibo level at $1.3307. The subsequent

recovery through $1.3425 allows a higher $1.3442-$1.3487 rise. Above $1.3473

would remove the overhanging threat of the Jun 7 'Doji' candle close. Higher

than $1.3487 and $1.3520-$1.3576 come into play next, the upper 1% vol band and

swing of the $1.3473-$1.3307 fall. Meanwhile, $1.3360-40 support, then $1.3307

again, loss would see $1.3291-$1.3254 below.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:   Y109.85-Y109.55 The Brake To A Deeper Setback

*RES 4: Y111.36/40 Equality rise from Y109.20, May 21 high

*RES 3: Y111.08 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y110.85/93 Jun 13 high, 1.618 swing of Y110.27-Y109.20

*RES 1: Y110.50/60 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y109.97 @0848GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.85 Hourly base Jun 11

*SUP 2: Y109.55/60 Hourly highs Jun 8, now support

*SUP 3: Y109.20 Jun 8 low

*SUP 4: Y108.75/85 Hourly congestion May 30-31, 1% vol band

*COMMENTARY* Wednesday saw a rise to Y110.85, just shy of the swing target at

Y110.93, before suffering a setback. With Y110.50-Y110.60 now acting as near

term resistance, there is support from Y109.85-Y109.55 acting as a brake to a

return to last Friday's Y109.20 base. Any lower would caution and open up a

deeper correction of gains from the late May low at Y108.11. Above Y110.93 still

has Y111.08-Y111.40 resistance higher.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Unable To Sustain A Break Above Y130.28 As Yet

*RES 4: Y131.38 May 14 high

*RES 3: Y131.15 5 month falling resistance line

*RES 2: Y131.06 50% Fibo of Y137.51-Y124.62 

*RES 1: Y130.28/35 Jun 7, Jun 12, Jun 13 highs

*PRICE: Y130.04 @0857GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.43/51 Hourly support, Jun 12 low

*SUP 2: Y128.94/95 Previous highs Jun 8, now support

*SUP 3: Y128.60 Hourly base Jun 8

*SUP 4: Y128.11/12 Jun 8 low, 38.2% Fibo of Y124.62-Y130.28

*COMMENTARY* Yesterday's recovery back through Y129.75 encouraged and again

challenged last Thursday's Y130.28 high. A Y130.35 high posted but has been

unable to sustain a clear break higher and the 50% Fibo retrace level at Y131.06

and the 5 month resistance line at Y131.14, remain on the backburner for now.

Support Y129.51-Y129.43 loss would caution with the risk of Y128.94-Y128.60

below.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Recovery Still Beholden To A Stg0.8837-Stg0.8842 Break

*RES 4: Stg0.8868 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.8837/42 Jun 7, May 4 highs

*RES 2: Stg0.8832 Jun 11-12 highs

*RES 1: Stg0.8825 Jun 13 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8798 @0900GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8770/80 Jun 12 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8750/59 Initial rally high Jun 5, Jun 8 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8724/26 Jun 5, Jun 1 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8697 May 29 low

*COMMENTARY* Found the ability to move through Stg0.8810 last Thursday but has

once again faltered on the approach to the next resistance of note between

Stg0.8837-Stg0.8842. The subsequent pullback from there has been relatively

swift, with Stg0.8790-Stg0.8780 giving way and allowing a dip to Stg0.8759,

within the more familiar range above the recent Stg0.8726-Stg0.8724 lows. Near

term Stg0.8780-Stg0.8770 provides support and Stg0.8825-Stg0.8832 resistance.

AUSSIE TECHS: Finds Support From The Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $0.7673/77 Base broken bull channel, Jun 6 high

*RES 3: $0.7644 Initial pullback low Jun 7, now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7624/29 Jun 12 high, hourly high Jun 7

*RES 1: $0.7609 Jun 13 high

*PRICE: $0.7562 @0910GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7523/28 76.4% $0.7476-$0.7677, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $0.7513/14 61.8% of $0.7412-$0.7677, Jun 1 low

*SUP 3: $0.7475/76 76.4% of $0.7412-$0.7677, Jun 1 low

*SUP 4: $0.7447/52 May 16 low, 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Unable to deal with resistance from the upper 1% volatility band

and the base of the previously broken 30 month support line last week. Squeezed

a high of $0.7677 but the resultant fall has been swift moving back below

$0.7615-$0.7594. Has subsequently found support from the lower 1% band and this

protects the downside from a further $0.7513-$0.7475 fall. Nearest resistance

$0.7609-$0.7629 but back above $0.7644 would improve recovery hopes again.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Key Near Term Support Currently Resides At $1.2921

*RES 4: $1.3116/25 1.618 swing $1.3042-$1.2922, Mar 19 high

*RES 3: $1.3096 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.3064/67 2 1/2 year falling res line, Jun 5 high

*RES 1: $1.3020/30 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2962 @1018GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2950/55 Hourly support, Jun 13 low

*SUP 2: $1.2921/22 2 week rising support line, Jun 8 low

*SUP 3: $1.2858/61 Jun 6 low, 38.2% Fibo of $1.2528-$1.3067

*SUP 4: $1.2837 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Reached $1.3067 last week, a test to the 2 1/2 year resistance

line. The subsequent pullback found support from $1.2858, just below the 38.2%

Fibo support at $1.2861. The following rally corrected that drop, the move back

above $1.3018 bringing $1.3067 back into focus again. Higher and $1.3096-$1.3125

becomes next target ahead of the equality rise at $1.3199. Support now

$1.2955-$1.2950 but $1.2921 is stronger protection below, loss would caution.

GOLD TECHS: $1303.5-$1307.9 Provides Resistance To Greater Recovery

*RES 4: $1326.0 May 11 high

*RES 3: $1314.9 May 15 high

*RES 2: $1307.9 May 25 high

*RES 1: $1303.5 Jun 7 high

*PRICE: $1303.4 @0923GMT

*SUP 1: $1287.8 May 23 low

*SUP 2: $1282.2 May 21 low

*SUP 3: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1266.3 1.618 swing of $1282.2-$1307.9

*COMMENTARY* Lost support briefly from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month

which raised some concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the

December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's

$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. If this can be sustained, then there is not much to stop

an eventual $1267.2 fall. In the meantime, $1303.5-$1307.9 provides resistance,

back above would allow a higher $1314.9-$1326.0 recovery.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]