MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Steep Decline Reaches The 1% Lower Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.1790/00 Hourly congestion Jun 11-13

*RES 3: $1.1775 Hourly bases Jun 11-12, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.1725 Jun 13 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1675/80 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1618 @1736GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1615/20 Intraday low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $1.1591 76.4% Fibo of $1.1510-$1.1852

*SUP 3: $1.1550 Hourly highs May 29-30, now support

*SUP 4: $1.1506/10 2% volatility band, May 29 low

*COMMENTARY* An exhaustion spike above $1.1840 to $1.1852 today was very quickly

reversed and still leaves the downside at risk from the bearish overtones from

last Thursday's 'Shooting Star' candle close. The subsequent loss of $1.1725

support opened the way for a deeper correction of gains from the May 29 low at

$1.1510. Have reached $ 1.1615 so far, basically a test to the lower 1%

volatility band. Any lower and $1.1591 offers next protection and clues.

CABLE TECHS: Earlier Rally Unable To Remove Threat Of 'Doji' Candle

*RES 4: $1.3442/47 Jun 6, Jun 11 & intraday highs

*RES 3: $1.3412 Intraday hourly high 

*RES 2: $1.3390/95 Hourly highs Jun 13-14

*RES 1: $1.3345/50 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3293 @1739GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3284 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.3267 76.4% Fibo of $1.3204-$1.3473

*SUP 3: $1.3244/54 1% volatility band, Jun 1 low

*SUP 4: $1.3220 1.618 swing of $1.3307-$1.3447

*COMMENTARY* Wednesday's fall was held by the 61.8% Fibo level at $1.3307. The

subsequent recovery through $1.3425 allowed a higher $1.3447 rise. Above $1.3473

would have removed the  threat of the Jun 7 'Doji' candle close. As a result, we

have seen a sharp fall, all the way back through yesterday's base and lower to

$1.3284. Oversold in the near term but will require a move back above $1.3350 to

elicit any better comeback. Otherwise $1.3267 $1.3220 beckons next.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.85 Acts As The Brake To A Deeper Setback

*RES 4: Y111.36/40 Equality rise from Y109.20, May 21 high

*RES 3: Y111.08 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y110.85/93 Jun 13 high, 1.618 swing of Y110.27-Y109.20

*RES 1: Y110.50/60 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y110.49 @1618GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.85/92 Hourly base Jun 11, intraday low

*SUP 2: Y109.55/60 Hourly highs Jun 8, now support

*SUP 3: Y109.20 Jun 8 low

*SUP 4: Y108.75/85 Hourly congestion May 30-31, 1% vol band

*COMMENTARY* Wednesday saw a rise to Y110.85, just shy of the swing target at

Y110.93, before suffering a setback. With Y110.50-Y110.60 now acting as near

term resistance, there is support from Y109.85-Y109.55 acting as a brake to a

return to last Friday's Y109.20 base. Any lower would caution and open up a

deeper correction of gains from the late May low at Y108.11. Above Y110.93 still

has Y111.08-Y111.40 resistance higher.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Correction Underway As Unable To Sustain A Break Above Y130.28 

*RES 4: Y130.28/36 Jun 7, Jun 13 & intraday highs

*RES 3: Y129.82 Former hourly basing area Jun 13-14

*RES 2: Y129.51/52 Jun 12, Jun 13 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: Y128.95/00 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y128.53 @1700GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.32 Intraday low

*SUP 2: Y128.11/17 Jun 8 low, 38.2% Fibo of Y124.62-Y130.35

*SUP 3: Y127.79/90 Jun 5 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y127.48 50% Fibo of Y124.62-Y130.35

*COMMENTARY* Yesterday's recovery back through Y129.75 encouraged and again

challenged last Thursday's Y130.28 high. A Y130.35 high posted but has been

unable to sustain a clear break higher and the 50% Fibo retrace level at Y131.06

and the 5 month resistance line at Y131.14, remain on the backburner. The

subsequent loss of Y129.51-Y129.43 triggered correction potential, a low of

Y128.32 so far, as we near previous Y128.17-Y128.11 lows.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Familiar Stg0.8832-Stg0.8837 Resistance Proves Too Tough

*RES 4: Stg0.8837/42 Jun 7, May 4 highs

*RES 3: Stg0.8832 Jun 11, Jun 12 highs

*RES 2: Stg0.8790/00 Hourly highs/lows Jun 12-13

*RES 1: Stg0.8770 Jun 12 low, now resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8746 @1710GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8724/26 Intraday, Jun 5, Jun 1 lows

*SUP 2: Stg0.8697 May 29 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8691 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low

*COMMENTARY* Has once again faltered on the approach to the next resistance of

note between Stg0.8837-Stg0.8842. Have seen highs of Stg0.8832 this week but the

subsequent pullback from there has been relatively swift, with

Stg0.8780-Stg0.8750 support giving way today and allowing a dip back to the

recent Stg0.8726-Stg0.8724 lows. Near term Stg0.8770-Stg0.8800 now provides

resistance, Stg0.8691-Stg0.8681 next below Stg0.8824.

AUSSIE TECHS: Continues Fall, $0.7476-$0.7475 Next Target Zone

*RES 4: $0.7624 Jun 12 high

*RES 3: $0.7609 Jun 13 high

*RES 2: $0.7590 Hourly congestion Jun 8-12

*RES 1: $0.7561 Jun 8 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7498 @1720GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7500/08 Hourly support, Equality fall from $0.7624 

*SUP 2: $0.7475/76 76.4% of $0.7412-$0.7677, Jun 1 low

*SUP 3: $0.7447 May 16 low, 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $0.7412 May 9 low

*COMMENTARY* Unable to deal with resistance from the upper 1% volatility band

and the base of the previously broken 30 month support line last week. Squeezed

a high of $0.7677 but the resultant fall has been swift moving back below

$0.7615-$0.7594. Has subsequently lost support from the lower 1% band,  thi

protecting the downside from a further $0.7500-$0.7475 fall. Nearest resistance

$0.7561-$0.7590 but only back above $0.7609 would improve recovery hopes again.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.3105-$1.3125 Next Target Area As $1.2950 Holds

*RES 4: $1.3199 Equality rise from $1.2729 to $1.2528-$1.2998

*RES 3: $1.3125 Mar 19 high

*RES 2: $1.3116 1.618 swing $1.3042-$1.2922

*RES 1: $1.3105 1% volatility band

*PRICE: $1.3093 @1730GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3030/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2993 Initial intraday high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2950/55 Intraday, Jun 13 lows

*SUP 4: $1.2921/22 2 week rising support line, Jun 8 low

*COMMENTARY* Reached $1.3067 last week, a test to the 2 1/2 year resistance

line. The subsequent pullback found support from $1.2858, just below the 38.2%

Fibo support at $1.2861. The resultant rally corrected that drop, the move back

above $1.3018 bringing $1.3067 back into focus again. Higher today and

$1.3105-$1.3125 becomes next target ahead of the equality rise at $1.3199.

Support now $1.3030-$1.2993 having held the $1.2950 area earlier in the day.

GOLD TECHS: $1309.3 The Resistance To Greater Recovery Potential

*RES 4: $1332.8 Apr 13 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1326.0 May 11 high

*RES 2: $1314.9 May 15 high

*RES 1: $1309.3 76.4% Fibo of $1326.0-$1282.2

*PRICE: $1303.6 @1735GMT

*SUP 1: $1291.6 Jun 13 low

*SUP 2: $1287.8 May 23 low

*SUP 3: $1282.2 May 21 low

*SUP 4: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Lost support briefly from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month

which raised some concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the

December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's

$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. Below and there is not much to stop an eventual $1267.2

fall. In the meantime, $1303.5-$1307.9 resistance has come under challenge

today, back above $1309.3 would allow a higher $1314.9-$1326.0 recovery.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]