MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Consolidation Continues Beneath $1.1620-$1.1645

*RES 4: $1.1688 Hourly high Jun 14

*RES 3: $1.1645 Jun 19 high

*RES 2: $1.1620 Initial pullback low Jun 19, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1596 Hourly recovery high Jun 19

*PRICE: $1.1559 @0815GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1510/31 May 29, Jun 19 lows

*SUP 2: $1.1480 1.618 swing $1.1543-$1.1645

*SUP 3: $1.1455 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.1448 50% Fibo of $1.0340-$1.2556

*COMMENTARY* A combination of the Jun 7 bearish 'Shooting Star' candle close and

last week the upper 1% volatility band, have conspired to send us down and back

towards the year's previous $1.1510 low. The current consolidation looks like a

4th wave, potentially ahead of another push lower, below $1.1510 would target

$1.1480-$1.1448 next. Meanwhile, $1.1596-$1.1620 provides resistance, above

$1.1645 would allow a higher correction of losses from $1.1840-$1.1852.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3128-$1.3107 Support After $1.3152 Wobbles

*RES 4: $1.3299/07 Jun 13 low, Jun 15 high

*RES 3: $1.3273 Jun 19 high

*RES 2: $1.3245 Hourly congestion Jun 18

*RES 1: $1.3211 Jun 15 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3154 @0830GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3145/52 Intraday low, 76.4% of $1.2774-$1.4377

*SUP 2: $1.3128 1.618 swing of $1.3151-$1.3188

*SUP 3: $1.3107 50% Fibo of $1.1838-$1.4377

*SUP 4: $1.3091 6 week bear channel base projection

*COMMENTARY* A low of $1.3145 so far, just below the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

$1.3152. Possible that we can squeeze another $1.3128-$1.3107 fall but beginning

to look like we are close to the base of a 5th wave in the fall from the month's

$1.3473 high. That said, a loss of the slightly lower $1.3091 level would have

us back to the Oct 6 low at $1.3027. Resistance remains from $1.3211-$1.3245,

needing back above $1.3273 to unleash any real upside potential.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Fall So Far Caught By Y109.60-Y109.51 Support

*RES 4: Y111.36/40 Equality rise from Y109.20, May 21 high

*RES 3: Y110.91/93 Jun 15 high, 1.618 swing Y110.27-Y109.20

*RES 2: Y110.62 Jun 18 high

*RES 1: Y110.30/38 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y110.17 @0835GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.51/60 50% Y108.11-Y110.91, 76.4% Y109.20-Y110.91

*SUP 2: Y109.18/20 61.8% of Y108.11-Y110.91, Jun 8 low

*SUP 3: Y109.09 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y108.77 76.4% Fibo of Y108.11-Y110.91

*COMMENTARY* Friday saw a rise to Y110.91, just shy of the swing target at

Y110.93, before suffering a setback. The subsequent loss of Y110.15 and

especially Y109.85 yesterday, sees Y109.60-Y109.51 as the protection against a

Y109.20-Y109.18 return, where next questions would be asked of direction.

Resistance comes initially from between Y110.30-Y110.38 but back above Monday's

Y110.62 high now needed for impact.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y127.70-Y128.10 Keeps Interest Lower At Present

*RES 4: Y128.95 Hourly high Jun 14

*RES 3: Y128.52 Jun 18 high

*RES 2: Y128.05/10 Congestion area Jun 15-18

*RES 1: Y127.70/81 Jun 15, Jun 18 lows, now resistance

*PRICE: Y127.36 @0845GMT

*SUP 1: Y126.64 Jun 19 low

*SUP 2: Y126.17 2% volatility band

*SUP 3: Y125.97 76.4% Fibo of Y124.62-Y130.35

*SUP 4: Y125.86 Equality fall from Y128.52 to Y130.36-Y127.70

*COMMENTARY* Found support from Y126.64 on Tuesday, thus so far protecting

against a deeper fall into the congested Y126.17-Y125.86 area. That said, the

subsequent recovery has faltered into initial Y127.70-Y127.81 resistance. Will

need the comfort of a move back above here and then the slightly higher

Y128.05-Y128.10 region, before the belief in the upside will reappear. Below

Y125.86 and not much then ahead of the year's Y124.62 low.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8800-Stg0.8810 The Near Term Resistance Within Range

*RES 4: Stg0.8837/42 Jun 7, May 4 highs

*RES 3: Stg0.8832 Jun 11, Jun 12 highs

*RES 2: Stg0.8810 Jun 1 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8837-Stg0.8717

*RES 1: Stg0.8800 Intraday high

*PRICE: Stg0.8788 @0850GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8730/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8717 Jun 15 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8697 May 29 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8681/85 Apr 26 low, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Last week once again faltered on the approach to the resistance of

note between Stg0.8837-Stg0.8842. Saw a high of Stg0.8832 but the subsequent

pullback from there has been relatively swift, with Stg0.8780-Stg0.8750 support

giving way and allowing a dip back to and slightly below the recent Stg0.8721-24

lows. Near term Stg0.8800-Stg0.8810 now provides resistance to any recovery,

Stg0.8697-Stg0.8681 next on a break below Stg0.8730-Stg0.8717.

AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7412-$0.7430 Needed Before Near Term Respite Seen

*RES 4: $0.7529 Jun 13 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7481 Jun 15 high

*RES 2: $0.7428/30 Jun 19 high, hourly resistance

*RES 1: $0.7412 May 9 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7384 @0859GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7347/55 Jun 19 low, 2% volatility band

*SUP 2: $0.7327/33 61.8% of $0.6827-$0.8136, May 9 2017 low

*SUP 3: $0.7264 2018 bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: $0.7248 1.618 swing of $0.7412-$0.7677

*COMMENTARY* Tuesday's fall to $0.7347 duelling with the lower 2% volatility

band, at $0.7355 by time today. Always cautious when this band is breached, as

historically this is never long lived. Any lower and the long term 61.8% Fibo

retrace at $0.7327 is the protection against a further $0.7264-$0.7248 fall.

Meanwhile, $0.7412-$0.7430 provides resistance to any better recovery and

correction of losses from the Jun 6 high at $0.7677.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Continued Rise Breaks Through 9 Month Bull Channel Top

*RES 4: $1.3377/85 50% $1.4692-$1.2061, 76.4% $1.3794-$1.2061

*RES 3: $1.3364 2% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.3348 Jun 21 high

*RES 1: $1.3311 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.3289 @0911GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3240/50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3192/10 Hourly base Jun 18, Jun 15 high

*SUP 3: $1.3159 Jun 18 low

*SUP 4: $1.3121 Hourly low Jun 15

*COMMENTARY* The hold of key $1.2950 support last week has produced a

significant recovery, which yesterday broke above the top of the 9 month bull

channel, at $1.3247 by time today. A high of $1.3311 seen so far, as we approach

the upper 2% volatility band at $1.3364 and then dual Fibo resistance from

between $1.3377-$1.3385. As a consequence, support rises to $1.3250-$1.3240 but

it is the slightly lower $1.3210-$1.3192 area that is currently more important.

GOLD TECHS: Fall Moves Toward Next $1267.2-$1262.3 Target Zone

*RES 4: $1303.5 Jun 7 high

*RES 3: $1294.5 Congestion area Jun 5-Jun 13

*RES 2: $1289.3 Jun 1 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1284.1 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1272.3 @0914GMT

*SUP 1: $1270.5 Jun 19 low

*SUP 2: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 3: $1265.4 1.618 swing of $1282.2-$1309.3

*SUP 4: $1262.3 Equality fall from $1326.0 to $1365.4-$1301.7

*COMMENTARY* Lost support briefly from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month

which raised concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the

December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's

$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. Below and there is not much to stop an eventual

$1267.2-$1262.3 fall. In the meantime, $1309.3 resistance has blocked gains and

started a fresh fall. Resistance $1284.1-$1294.5, $1303.5 more important higher.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]