MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Held At Base Of $1.1721-$1.1730 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.1840/52 Jun 7, Jun 14 highs

*RES 3: $1.1758/71 1% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1508

*RES 2: $1.1730 1.618 swing of $1.1645-$1.1508

*RES 1: $1.1721/25 61.8% of $1.1852-$1.1508, Jun 13 low

*PRICE: $1.1673 @1530GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1650 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1628 Jun 25 low

*SUP 3: $1.1600 Jun 20 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.1555/60 Congestion area Jun 19-21

*COMMENTARY* The rally finally made it to the base of the next $1.1721-$1.1730

resistance area, before hitting on some overbought hourly conditions. The

subsequent setback should really hold into $1.1650 support, if further gains are

to follow at this juncture. Any lower would bring $1.1628-$1.1600 back into the

equation, where next questions are asked of direction. Above $1.1730 would allay

those fears and see the recovery reach toward $1.1758-$1.1771 next.

CABLE TECHS: Correction Rests Ahead Of The 61.8% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: $1.3385/89 76.4% Fibo of $1.3473-$1.3102, 1% vol band

*RES 3: $1.3331 61.8% Fibo of $1.3473-$1.3102

*RES 2: $1.3315 Jun 22 high

*RES 1: $1.3292 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.3240 @1536GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3207 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.3180/85 Congestion area Jun 19-20

*SUP 3: $1.3145/51 Jun 20, Jun 19 lows

*SUP 4: $1.3102/07 Jun 21 low, 50% of $1.1838-$1.4377

*COMMENTARY* A move into $1.3107-$1.3100 support seen Thursday and as intimated,

we were close to the base of a 5th wave in the fall from the month's $1.3473

high. The subsequent move through $1.3218-$1.3226 has given the impetus to

launch this correction. A high of $1.3315 so far, just below the 61.8% retrace

level at $1.3331, as we reach near term overbought conditions. Support now from

$1.3207-$1.3180 but $1.3151-$1.3145 of more consequence below.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.05 Back In View As Correction Finds Support From Y109.37

*RES 4: Y110.76 Jun 21 high

*RES 3: Y110.45 Jun 20 high

*RES 2: Y110.22 Jun 22 high

*RES 1: Y110.05 Jun 25 high

*PRICE: Y109.92 @1542GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.37 Jun 25 low

*SUP 2: Y109.18/20 61.8% of Y108.11-Y110.91, Jun 8 low

*SUP 3: Y108.77/80 76.4% Y108.11-Y110.91,swing Y109.55-Y110.76

*SUP 4: Y108.11 May 29 low

*COMMENTARY* Unable to improve on the Y110.91 high seen on Jun 15 and has

gradually been paying the price since. Monday's break below Y109.80-Y109.55 has

found support from Y109.37, protecting against a further Y109.20-Y109.04 fall,

the latter the lower 1% vol band, as gains from the May 29 low at Y108.11 begin

to unwind. Yesterday's Y110.05 high provides immediate resistance,

Y110.22-Y110.45 higher. Below Y109.04 and Y108.80-Y108.77 becomes important.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Retreats After Test Toward 61.8% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: Y130.36 Jun 14 high, 5 month falling res line

*RES 3: Y129.48 76.4% Fibo of Y130.36-Y124.62, 1% vol band

*RES 2: Y128.85/94 Jun 25 high, 61.8% Fibo of Y130.36-Y124.62

*RES 1: Y128.45/50 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y128.27 @1549GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.65 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y127.28 Jun 25 low

*SUP 3: Y126.91/09 1% vol band, Jun 21, Jun 20 lows

*SUP 4: Y126.64 Jun 19 low

*COMMENTARY* Monday saw another attempt to reach the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at

Y128.94, attaining a high of Y128.85 before retreating on the back of some

overbought hourly conditions. In this respect, support comes initially from

above Y127.65 and then yesterday's Y127.28 base. Main support however is located

between Y128.09-Y126.91. Loss would put Y126.64 back under pressure. Resistance

Y128.45-Y128.50 and then that Y128.94, being the gateway to Y129.48 next.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Attempting Challenge To Recent Consolidation Highs

*RES 4: Stg0.8865 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.8837/42 Jun 7, May 4 highs

*RES 2: Stg0.8832 Jun 11, Jun 12 highs

*RES 1: Stg0.8820/23 Jun 25, intraday highs

*PRICE: Stg0.8814 @1554GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8750/60 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8726 Jun 21 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8717 Jun 15 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8697 May 29 low

*COMMENTARY* Monday saw Stg0.8810 resistance give way but the slightly higher

Stg0.8820-Stg0.8823 area has frustrated further gains and an attempt on the

higher Stg0.8832-Stg0.8842 area, which has capped rallies over the last couple

of months. Daily studies remain supportive, so while Stg0.8760-Stg0.8750 support

holds, there is the chance to regroup for another challenge. Loss of Stg0.8750

would disappoint and once again see a retreat towards Stg0.8726-Stg0.8717.

AUSSIE TECHS: Pullback Meets With Support Between $0.7390-$0.7370

*RES 4: $0.7501/11 1% volatility band, 50% $0.7677-$0.7345

*RES 3: $0.7476/81 May 29 low, Jun 15 high

*RES 2: $0.7457 Jun 22 high

*RES 1: $0.7438 Hourly recovery high Jun 25

*PRICE: $0.7402 @1559GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7380 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $0.7370 Initial rally high Jun 21, now support

*SUP 3: $0.7345 Jun 21 low

*SUP 4: $0.7327/33 61.8% of $0.6827-$0.8136, May 9 2017 low

*COMMENTARY* Last week's dips to firstly $0.7347 and then $0.7345, had a duel

with the lower 2% volatility band, which managed to control the fall. The

following recovery on the back of heavily oversold studies has reached $0.7457

so far, before giving back some ground. Support now between $0.7380-$0.7370,

back below the latter would concern again. Above $0.7457 and $0.7476-$0.7481

becomes the next potential barrier to overcome.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Rally Halted At Edge Of $1.3385-$1.3404 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.3462 1.618 swing of $1.3385-$1.3261

*RES 3: $1.3404 Equality rise from $1.2528 to $1.2249-$1.3125

*RES 2: $1.3385 76.4% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061, Jun 22 high

*RES 1: $1.3340/55 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3298 @1612GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3261 Jun 22 low

*SUP 2: $1.3210 Jun 15 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3159 Jun 18 low

*SUP 4: $1.3114 Jun 15 low

*COMMENTARY* The hold of key $1.2950 support this month has continued to produce

a significant recovery, which has broken above the top of the 9 month bull

channel and also the Jun 2017 high at $1.3348. It has however found the 76.4%

Fibo retrace level at $1.3385 a significant barrier. This and the equality rise

target at $1.3404 are the primary contenders to put a halt to this rise, at

least for the time being. Support from 1.3261, loss here would caution.

GOLD TECHS: Decline Continues, $1250.5 Now Protects Against $1236.6 Return 

*RES 4: $1289.3 Jun 1 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1282.2 May 21 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1272.7 Jun 22 high

*RES 1: $1268.5 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1261.2 @1628GMT

*SUP 1: $1250.5 3 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 2: $1236.6 Dec 12 low

*SUP 3: $1226.2 Equality fall from $1309.4 to $1365.4-$1282.2

*SUP 4: $1215.7 61.8% Fibo of $1122.6-$1380

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month which

raised concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the December

2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's $1236.6-$1366.2 rise.

Below and we have now seen a further $1267.2-$1262.3 fall. In fact this has been

slightly exceeded and risk is for a test to the 3 month channel base at $1250.5

next. Resistance $1268.5-$1272.7 but $1282.2 remains more important higher.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]