MNI US Open: Looking For Half A Million More Jobs

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• U.S. NOVEMBER NONFARM PAYROLLS SEEN +550K (MNI DEALER MEDIAN)
• LAGARDE SAYS 2022 ECB HIKE UNLIKELY BUT WILL ACT ON PRICES IF NEEDED
• ECB'S KNOT WON'T RULE OUT RATE INCREASE IN 2023
• TURKEY CENTRAL BANK SAYS IT'S INTERVENED AGAIN IN FX MARKETS
• EX-ECB CHIEF ECONOMIST PETER PRAET JOINS MNI

Fig.1: Distribution Of Analyst Forecasts For November Nonfarm Payrolls Gains

Source: BBG Analyst Survey

NEWS:

ECB (BBG): European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said an increase in interest rates is unlikely next year, but she won’t hesitate to take action to combat elevated inflation as soon as it becomes necessary.“When the conditions of our forward guidance are satisfied, we will not hesitate to act,” Lagarde told Reuters in a webcast interview on Friday.The ECB plans to decide on the future of its stimulus measures on Dec. 16, when the central bank also presents new projections for economic growth and inflation. Its flagship 1.85 trillion-euro ($2.1 trillion) pandemic bond-buying program is due to expire at the end of March.

ECB: Inflation will decline over 2022 as it gets over the current 'hump' European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said Friday. Speaking at an event hosted by Reuters, Lagarde said prices will decline over the coming year, with price increases now likely at or close to their apex. With many factors set to lessen the upside pressure in 2022, including a likely easing in energy costs, Lagarde said prices will fall towards the ECB's target over the year, although she said the end year level would depend on how soon prices start to ease.

ECB (BBG/FD): ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot won’t rule out an interest-rate increase in 2023 if inflation is still higher in 2022 than expected in the ECB’s baseline scenario, he said in an interview with Dutch newspaper De Financieele Dagblad.“We still assume that higher inflation is largely a temporary phenomenon,” added Knot, who is president of the Dutch National Bank.

GLOBAL MARKETS (BBG): Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s Charlie Munger told a conference Friday that markets are wildly overvalued in places and that the current environment is “even crazier” than the dotcom boom of the late 1990s that subsequently led to a bust. “I consider this era an even crazier era than the dotcom era,” Munger, 97, said at the Sohn conference in Sydney, The Australian Financial Review reported. Charlie Munger Munger also said that he wished cryptocurrencies didn’t exist, and praised China for taking action to ban their use, according to the AFR.

UK POLITICS: Prime Minister Boris Johnson's centre-right Conservative Party held onto the outer London seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup in the 2 December parliamentary by-election with a 10.3% swing against the party. However, a much sterner test is set to come in the form of the North Shropshire by-election on 16 December. The Conservatives held the seat with 51.5% of the vote, down from 64.5% inthe 2019 election. The party's majority fell from 18,952 to 4,478, althoughthis is somewhat mitigated for the Conservatives by the very low turnout.Just 33.5% of eligible voters went to the polls, the lowest in aparliamentary by-election since 2018.

TURKEY (MNI/BBG): Central bank has intervened in markets and is selling FX due to “unhealthy price formations,” it says in statement. Intervention follows a similar move Wednesday, its first such intervention since 2014. This is a second intervention at 13.88, just short of the 14.00 handle. As noted before, the CBRT has limited reserve power to continue defending the currency.

MNI: MNI Market News (“MNI”) is delighted to announce that Peter Praet, Executive Board member and Chief Economist of the European Central Bank from 2011 to 2019, is joining the MNI Connect Advisory Board from January 1.

• He joins to help develop the MNI Connect global events programme, where financial market participants are brought together with policymakers and opinion formers from central banks and elsewhere to engage in the critical macroeconomic policy debates of our times. [Click here for more information on MNI Connect and other market-leading MNI services]
• “To have such a prestigious central banker as Peter join our Connect events team at MNI is truly exciting, as we continue our mission of providing the most insightful coverage possible of policy making, not just in the Eurozone, but across global markets,” said Terry Alexander, CEO of MNI.
• Kevin Woodfield, Global Head of Policy / Connect at MNI, added: “In Peter, we have on board at MNI one of the most prominent central bankers of the past decade. Working with a policymaker who was right at the forefront of tackling the last crisis will be invaluable as we evolve our MNI Connect events programme through the current crisis and beyond.”

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