Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- STANCES PRESENTED BY UKRAINIAN, RUSSIAN DELEGATIONS AT TALKS 'BECOME MORE REALISTIC' – ZELENSKY - IFX
- IEA LOWERS GLOBAL 2Q-4Q 2022 OIL DEMAND FORECAST BY 1.3M B/D - BBG
- CHINA STOCKS EXTEND REBOUND AS STATE COUNCIL VOWS MARKET SUPPORT -BBG
NEWS:
UKRAINE-RUSSIA (IFX): There is hope for compromise at talks with Ukraine - Lavrov. "I rely on the opinion of our negotiators. They say that negotiations have not been easy for apparent reasons but still there is certain hope for reaching a compromise," Lavrov said
CHINA (MNI): Mainland China and Hong Kong regulators will enhance coordination to ensure the stability of HK financial markets and China welcomes long-term institutional investors to increase holdings of Chinese stocks, said Vice Premier Liu He at a meeting of the China Financial Stability Committee on Wednesday.
EUROPEAN UNION (MNI): Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa called Wednesday for a joint permanent EU economic stability instrument. Speaking during at a high-level conference on the Recovery and Resilience Fund in the EU Parliament today, Costa noted the success of the EU's SURE instrument, as one example, which had protected the jobs of 31 million workers during the Covid crisis.
IEA ON OIL (DJ): The impact could mean 3 million barrels a day of Russian supply effectively cut off from global markets starting next month, the IEA said. The agency slashed its forecast for global oil supply this year by 2 million barrels a day to 99.5 million barrels a day, based on what major producers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have currently agreed to pump.
DATA:
ITALY: FEB FINAL HICP +0.8% M/M, +6.2 Y/Y (JAN +5.1%)
BONDS: Take their cue from Equities
- Bund continues to take it cue from the latest Risk On rally.
- Estoxx futures is through a 10 days session high.
- Some of the momentum has been help by the big rally in Chinese Equities, following couple of Chinese headlines " China vows to support overseas share listings", "China keeps good dialogue with U.S. regulators over ADRs.
- Peripherals are all tighter, with Greece in the lead, by 3.1bps.German 10yr yield is back at the highest level since 19/11/18.
- Similar price action for the Gilt, although the contract trades off the lows, but is still down 41 ticks at the time of typing.
- The 10yr Yield also tested highest level since October 2018.
- Gilt/Bund spread is 1.1bp tighter.US Treasuries have followed suit and are off their lows, but still seeing continued divergence against Europe, ahead of the FOMC.
- Looking ahead, all of the focus is on the FOMC and presser.
- On the data front, US Retail sales is the notable release.
FOREX: EUR is underpinned
- The EUR is underpinned, whilst the USD is under pressure in early European trade.
- The USD is taking its cue from the risk on tone, with big rallies in Asia,, after China declared that they will be pro active in supporting overseas share listing.
- EUR has been underpinned, bid, following latest headlines from Russia Lavrov, noting that some formulations of agreements with Ukraine are close to being agreed.
- This has contributed to some extensions in Equities and in turn the EUR.
- Best early performer versus the USD is the SEK, with USDSEK testing lowest level since the 1st March, more a function of the USD's weakness, following the Risk On tone, and a continuation from the Asian session in Equities.
- Next support area for the USDSEK is at the 28/02 low 9.4301USD is in the red against all G10, besides the JPY (trades flat), with the latter helped by the higher yield.
- Looking ahead, all of the focus is on the FOMC and presser.
- On the data front, US Retail sales is the notable release.
EQUITIES: China/HK equities lead the way higher
- Japan's NIKKEI up 415.53 pts or +1.64% at 25762.01 and the TOPIX up 26.62 pts or +1.46% at 1853.25
- China's SHANGHAI closed up 106.745 pts or +3.48% at 3170.71 and the HANG SENG ended 1672.42 pts higher or +9.08% at 20087.5
- German Dax up 355.98 pts or +2.56% at 14280.41, FTSE 100 up 85.76 pts or +1.2% at 7260.98, CAC 40 up 172.54 pts or +2.72% at 6518.01 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 108.35 pts or +2.9% at 3849.41.
- Dow Jones mini up 294 pts or +0.88% at 33822, S&P 500 mini up 47 pts or +1.1% at 4310, NASDAQ mini up 227.25 pts or +1.69% at 13682.75.
COMMODITIES: Silver bucking the trend of commodities a little higher
- WTI Crude up $1.56 or +1.62% at $97.82
- Natural Gas (NYM) up $0.16 or +3.57% at $4.729
- Natural Gas (ICE Dutch TTF) up $0.3 or +0.26% at $115.8
- Gold spot up $0.93 or +0.05% at $1918.94
- Copper up $7.55 or +1.67% at $458.65
- Silver down $0.1 or -0.4% at $24.7921
- Platinum up $21.81 or +2.21% at $1008.71
LOOK AHEAD
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 16/03/2022 | 1100/0700 | ** |  | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 16/03/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Retail Sales |
| 16/03/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Import/Export Price Index |
| 16/03/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** |  | CA | CPI |
| 16/03/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | CA | Wholesale Trade |
| 16/03/2022 | 1400/1000 | * | | US | Business Inventories |
| 16/03/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 16/03/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 16/03/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 16/03/2022 | 1800/1400 | *** | | US | FOMC Statement |
| 17/03/2022 | 2145/1045 | *** |  | NZ | GDP |
| 17/03/2022 | 0030/1130 | *** |  | AU | Labor force survey |
| 17/03/2022 | 0930/1030 |  | EU | ECB Lagarde Address at ECB & Its Watchers Conference | |
| 17/03/2022 | 1000/1100 | *** | | EU | HICP (f) |
| 17/03/2022 | 1015/1115 | | EU | ECB Lane in Debate at ECB & its Watchers Conference | |
| 17/03/2022 | 1200/1200 | *** |  | UK | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 17/03/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 17/03/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Housing Starts |
| 17/03/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 17/03/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 17/03/2022 | 1245/1345 | | EU | ECB Schnabel in Debate at ECB & its Watchers Conference | |
| 17/03/2022 | 1315/0915 | *** | | US | Industrial Production |
| 17/03/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 17/03/2022 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | NY Fed Weekly Economic Index |
| 17/03/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 17/03/2022 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.