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MNI US Payrolls Preview: Household Survey Seasonal Revisions Add Uncertainty

Photo by Mika Baumeister on Unsplash

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Bloomberg consensus sees nonfarm payrolls growth of 171k in December after November’s 199k was boosted by 38k workers returning from strikes.
  • The public sector is expected to see further above-average job creation with private sector focus on health & social assistance as well as retail.
  • Both AHE and the unemployment rate are seen marginally dovish vs November, but exaggerated by rounding and with primary dealer analysts tilted to a small hawkish surprise across both categories.
  • The household survey (i.e. including the unemployment rate) will see historical revisions to seasonally adjusted figures, zero sum over the year but potentially altering recent trends.
  • We see two-sided sensitivity after the recent trimming in Fed rate cut expectations.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

USNFPJan2024Preview.pdf

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