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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Consensus is very similar to what it pencilled in for last month’s report, before payrolls came in stronger but the u/e rate increased more than expected as participation fell.
- As it is, payrolls growth is seen continuing to moderate but well above a more sustainable 100k with the u/e rate holding at a low 3.7% (slight survey skew lower) and AHE easing to 0.3% M/M (slight skew higher).
- The indicators of slack from the usual combination of unemployment and participation rates plus AHE growth will guide the market reaction.
- The outcome is most likely to affect expectations for the Feb 1 FOMC decision. 50bp is currently seen largely locked in for December (52bp priced), with an additional 35bp priced for the Feb meeting. The recent renewed Fed concentration on the labour market could see this swing either way.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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