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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FRANCE
Over the weekend the centre-right Les Republicains elected President of the Regional Council of Ile-de-France Valerie Pecresse as the party's candidate for president in the April 2022 election. Party members elected moderate Pecresse as leader with 61% of the vote in the contest held on 4 Dec, defeating right-wing National Assebly member Eric Ciotti who won 39%.
- LR will be hoping that having now settled on a presidential candidate the party will be able to make more of an impression on voters and boost Pecresse's polling scores. So far, in first round polls Pecresse has sat in a distant fourth place behind incumbent President Emmanuel Macron, Rassemblement National leader Marine Le Pen, and right-wing polemicist Eric Zemmour.
- In the event Pecresse makes the second round (likely against Macron) polling shows that at present she would have little chance of beating the incumbent (see chart below).
Chart 1. Second-Round Opinion Polling, Macron vs. Pecresse, %
Source: Harris Interactive
- Should Pecresse make the second round it would likely provide a boost for markets. Hailing from the traditional Gaullist centre-right of LR, Pecresse has previously stated her political views and style as 'two-thirds Angela Merkel, one-third Margaret Thatcher'. She is seen as a keen europhile, eliminating the prospect of any shift towards a less EU integrationist France that could occur should Le Pen or Zemmour win the presidency.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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