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Modest Dovish Move In FOMC Pricing Post-PCE

STIR

Slightly softer-than-expected unrounded core PCE M/M data provides a limited dovish market reaction in FOMC-dated OIS.

  • That leaves ~2.5bp of cuts priced through the July meeting, ~18bp showing through Sep, ~26.5bp through Nov and ~44bp of total cuts priced through year end. Dec FOMC-dated OIS showed ~42bp of cuts ahead of the data.
  • Multi-week ranges remain intact.
  • A positive upward revision to the prior month’s core PCE M/M reading was exaggerated by rounding, accounting for some of the initial two-way post-data flow in U.S. rates.
  • Fed’s Daly (’24 voter) was not market moving, as she reiterated previous comments, while noting that today’s PCE data provides evidence that policy settings are working.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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