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Modest Trimming Of BAX Inversion Ahead of CPI

CANADA
  • BAX futures are slightly off lows but hold most of the day’s modest sell-off, having held some underperformance to US rates ever since early trade.
  • Sep'23 -0.005, Dec'23 -0.02, Jun'24 -0.03, Dec'24 -0.03.
  • It sees a second session of inversion trimming, with the Sep-Dec’23 spread nudging to +4bps (from +2.5bp) and the Sep’23-Dec’24 to -88.5bp (from -91bp). The latter is still notably lower than the -65bp seen before the US CPI miss dominated market reaction to the BoC’s decision to hike 25bps on Wed.
  • Wholesale trade earlier was notably stronger than the limited survey consensus but in line with what the advance release had pointed to, with focus more firmly on tomorrow’s CPI report and especially recent monthly momentum.

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