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Modestly More Hawkish From Goolsbee

FED
  • MNI: * GOOLSBEE: FOMC RATE PROJECTION FOR MODEST HIKES IS REASONABLE
  • Goolsbee ('23 voter) is generally considered towards the dovish end of the FOMC spectrum.
  • The Jun 14 dots showed a clear majority looking for two more hikes to 5.5-5.75%. Three were more aggressive whilst four looked for just one more and two no further hikes from the current 5-5.25%.
  • It's hard to say whether he was already supporting moderate hikes or whether data since the meeting have pushed him higher.
  • Other points more in keeping with prior comments:
  • Labor market: Jobs market still very strong but cooling, getting to a more sustainable pace of job gains. He cautions taking wage data as a leading indicator (prices move first).
  • Prices: Goods inflation hasn’t come down as much as thought – unchanged from Jun 30.
  • Recession outlook: Don’t need a recession to eliminate inflation concerns, on a golden path.
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