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Monte Paschi Sr Pref Issue: We See Pricing Towards 4.70%a

FINANCIALS

Monte Paschi (BMPS IM) issued senior preferred today: we see pricing able to tighten towards 4.70% area.


  • MPS is a couple of notches lower-rated than mid-sized peers BPM and BPER which at least have curves that extend closer to this maturity. MPS trades at 80-90bp wide of those curves (see first graphic) which indicates around 4.7%.
  • Working via spreads (second graphic), MPS trades around 70bp wide of its peers which, against 4Y EUR swaps at 2.637% and BPM’s short 4Y trading at MS+141bp, gets us to around 4.75% (2.637%+1.41% plus 70bp premium).
  • MPS last tapped the sr pref market in Aug-23 which is now at 4.657% so this would be a floor, in our view.
  • Last update: IPT: Monte Paschi EU500m WNG 5NC4 Sr Pref 5% Area (1) with books >EUR1bn.

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