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Moody's note that "Asia-Pacific likely will grow faster in 2021-22 than the Middle East & North Africa and Latin America, but performance will increasingly diverge within the region, says Moody's Investors Service in a new report. The economic rebound, fuelled in large part by China (A1 stable), masks a range of output losses across the region."
- "We forecast about 30% of APAC economies will face a modest degree of scarring, experiencing an output decline of 2%-8% below our pre-pandemic forecast GDP levels by 2023. These include mainly lower-to-upper middle-income economies and those struggling to contain a virus resurgence, such as Malaysia (A3 stable), Indonesia (Baa2 stable) and Thailand (Baa1 stable)," says Deborah Tan, a Moody's Assistant Vice President and Analyst.
- "However, more than 40% of the region's economies will have output losses exceeding 8% of pre-pandemic GDP forecast levels. Economies with the deepest scarring generally have concentrated economic structures or weaker institutional capacity. These are economies with lower-middle incomes, with deep scarring likely to increase social risks. In some of these economies, high debt burdens are limiting governments' fiscal space to withstand the pandemic."
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