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Moody’s Raises Turkey’s Outlook to Positive, Budget Moves to Deficit in December

TURKEY
  • Moody’s raised Turkey’s outlook to positive from stable, citing a “decisive change” in economic policy undertaken by authorities, while affirming the rating on Turkey’s government debt at B3. “While headline inflation is likely to rise further in the near term, there are signs that inflation dynamics are starting to turn, indicative of monetary policy regaining credibility and effectiveness,” they wrote.
  • Turkey's budget moved to a deficit of TRY 842.5bln in December from +TRY 75.6bln in November, according to the Ministry of Treasury and Finance. That is the deepest deficit by some margin since before 2006 at least, with the ‘Capital Expenditures’ and ‘Capital Transfers’ components the main culprits behind the large shortfall.
  • Citing “market experts”, Ekonomi write that consumer inflation is predicted to be around 40-45% by year-end. Meanwhile, the central bank’s estimate is 36%, with an upper limit of 42%. The newspaper add that, according to some, the difference is due to lack of sufficient improvement in confidence and perception.
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