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Morgan Stanley and UBS Reduce 2022 Brent Price Forecasts

OIL

Morgan Stanley and UBS reduce their Brent price forecasts for the remainder of 2022.

  • Morgan Staley reduced 3Q 2022 from 110$/bbl to $98/bbl and 4Q 2022 from 100$/bbl to 95$/bbl for according to note on Sep 12.
    • The forecast for 2023 was left unchanged with a warning the Russian exports could “decline materially” due to the EU ban on Russia oil. The note estimates Russian oil exports could decline 1.5 to 2mbpd in early 2023.
    • “Once demand picks up, the structural issues will emerge once more. We lower near-term oil price forecasts, but see a firmer market again from 2Q 2023 onward.”
  • UBS reduced their Dec 2022 forecast by 15$/bbl to $110$/bbl due to China lockdowns and resilient Russian exports in a note on Sep 12.
    • They expect the market to tighten in the coming quarters.
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