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MARKET TALK: Morgan Stanley noted the following on Wednesday: "the idea that
valuations already reflect a 'V shaped' recovery is a frequent refrain in the
market, and a risk to our constructive 12-month outlook. During recessions,
earnings and default rates both see large, temporary deviations from trend. Both
can distort the true valuations picture, a reason why we think that 'through the
cycle' valuations are especially useful at present. Defensive assets are (much)
richer versus history than their more cyclical peers, the opposite of what one
would expect if there was economic optimism. This is true across asset classes,
whether it's the BBB-A credit basis, small versus large-cap equities or the
shape of the yield curve. 'Valuation' does not top our list of concerns. And
many of our preferred relative themes all have attractive relative valuation: a
weaker USD, higher yields, steeper curves, lower volatility, BBB-A spread
compression, EU value equities and US smaller and more cyclical stocks."