Morgan Stanley went short USDRUB at the NY....>

FOREX: Morgan Stanley went short USDRUB at the NY close on Thursday, with a stop

at 64.20 and a target of 59.50.

- MS posit that "given the idiosyncratic stories in other high- yielding EM

countries, Russia now looks better than its peers. The Central Bank of Russia is

likely to keep rates on hold at its meeting tomorrow and for the time being

given the volatility in the rest of EM, supporting real rates in Russia. The

MinFin's intervention and current account seasonality are negative for RUB but

they could be offset by World Cup- related inflows and cleaner positioning among

foreigners. The CBR data show foreigners sold $3bn of OFZs in the past two

months, or 9% of foreign ownership. Lastly, oil prices are likely to stay high

as we expect no production increase from OPEC at their meeting on 22 June. A

risk to this trade would be renewed emphasis on sanctions from the US, weighing

on sentiment."